Odds Overview
Anderlecht are clear favourites: home win is priced at 1.50, while the draw and Kairat Almaty to win are 4.30 and 6.10. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 looks preferable to Under 2.5 goals at 2.00. On the handicap, Anderlecht (-1) at 1.75 is priced lower than Kairat Almaty (+1) at 2.00, while Anderlecht (-1.5) at 2.20 is higher than Kairat Almaty (+1.5) at 1.60.
Why Anderlecht Are Favourites for the Match
The bookmakers give the hosts a clear edge: Anderlecht to win is priced at 1.50, the draw is 4.30, and Kairat Almaty to win is available at 6.10.
- In the first leg, Anderlecht won 3:0 in Almaty, building a substantial cushion ahead of the return match.
- Kairat Almaty lost the home leg of the qualifier and are forced to take risks from the opening minutes away from home.
Form and Line-up Anderlecht
The Belgians feel confident at Lotto Park: they have not lost on goals in 9 of their last 10 Europa League home matches, while they won their previous home game in the tournament 3:2. A powerful start has become their trademark — the local press notes that the team also scored quickly against both Hammarby and PAOK.
After the win in Almaty, the club further strengthened their attack by signing a new forward. Vitor Bruno, meanwhile, publicly urged the team to take the return meeting as seriously as possible.
Key numbers:
In all of their last 10 Europa League home matches, Anderlecht have not been outperformed by their opponents for shots on target.
In 9 of their 10 home games in the tournament, there were at least 5 shots on target.
In 9 of their 10 home matches, their opponents had no more than 12 shots.
Probable Anderlecht line-up (4-3-3): Colin Coosemans — Ali Maamar, Giulian Biancone, Leo Petrot, Ludwig Augustinsson — Marco Kana, Enric Llansana, Lukas Ambros — Mihajlo Cvetkovic, Danylo Sikan, Joshua Nga-Kana.
Form and Line-up Kairat Almaty
The Almaty side are having a difficult season: first came an unexpected Champions League exit to Bulgaria's Levski Sofia (0:2 on aggregate), and now a heavy defeat to Anderlecht. After the match, Urazbakhtin explained the loss by pointing to mistakes and an early sending-off.
The squad problems are obvious: Satpaev, Gromyko and Sorokin left in the summer, while Jorginho suffered a serious injury. The team are keeping their results going in the domestic league, but European competition has exposed the difference in class.
Key numbers:
In the first leg, Kairat Almaty had only 5 shots, 2 of them on target.
In 9 of the team's last 10 Europa League away matches, no more than 3 goals were recorded.
In 8 of Kairat Almaty's last 10 matches in the tournament, their opponents had at least 4 shots on target.
Probable Kairat Almaty line-up (4-4-1-1): Temirlan Anarbekov — Yerkin Tapalov, Lev Kurgin, Lucas Africo, Luis Mata — Aleksandr Mrynskiy, Jaakko Oksanen, Gustavo Mendonca, Oiva Jukkola — Marc Gual — Edmilson Filho.
Absentees: Aleksandr Shirobokov (suspended)
Teams' Chances
Home win is rated at 1.50; the no-margin estimate is 1.59 and 62.7%. For the draw, the figures are 4.30, 4.57 and 21.9%, while for away win they are 6.10, 6.49 and 15.4%: the market clearly has more faith in the hosts.
Outcome | Average odds | Average no-margin odds | No-margin probability |
Anderlecht to win | 1.50 | 1.59 | 62.7% |
Draw | 4.30 | 4.57 | 21.9% |
Kairat Almaty to win | 6.10 | 6.49 | 15.4% |
Totals Prediction
Under 2.5 goals is priced at 2.00, while Over 2.5 goals is 1.75, which slightly tilts the market towards the higher-scoring option. At 3.5, Under is 1.40 against 2.70 for Over, so three or more goals look more expected than four or more.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 2.00 | 1.75 |
3.5 | 1.40 | 2.70 |
Handicap Prediction
Anderlecht (-1.5) is offered at 2.20, Kairat Almaty (+1.5) at 1.60. On the one-goal line, Anderlecht (-1) is 1.75, while Kairat Almaty (+1) is 2.00. With a zero handicap, Anderlecht (0) at 1.17 is noticeably shorter than Kairat Almaty (0) at 4.20.
Hosts | Handicap | Visitors |
2.20 | -1.5 | — |
— | 1.5 | 1.60 |
1.75 | -1 | — |
— | 1 | 2.00 |
1.17 | 0 | 4.20 |
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is priced at 1.90, while Both teams to score — No is 1.85. There is a slight price advantage for the option in which at least one team does not score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.90 |
No | 1.85 |
Double Chance Prediction
1X is rated at 1.11, 12 at 1.20 and X2 at 2.50. The scenario in which the hosts avoid defeat looks the most likely, while the visitors' double chance is priced much higher.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.11 | 1.20 | 2.50 |
Team Total Prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: Anderlecht — 2 goals, Kairat Almaty — 0.5 goals.
Anderlecht Team Total
Anderlecht: Under 0.5 goals — 6.00, Over 0.5 goals — 1.08; Under 1.5 — 2.25, Over 1.5 — 1.57. On the line of 2, Under is 1.70 against 2.02 for Over, and at 2.5 it is 1.42 against 2.65: the market expects at least one goal from the hosts, but is more cautious about three or more.
Under | Team total | Over |
6.00 | 0.5 | 1.08 |
2.25 | 1.5 | 1.57 |
1.70 | 2 | 2.02 |
1.42 | 2.5 | 2.65 |
Kairat Almaty Team Total
Kairat Almaty: Under 0.5 goals — 2.10, Over 0.5 goals — 1.65; Under 1 — 1.40, Over 1 — 2.80; Under 1.5 — 1.20, Over 1.5 — 4.00. The probability of a goal from the visitors is rated higher than them scoring two or more.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.10 | 0.5 | 1.65 |
1.40 | 1 | 2.80 |
1.20 | 1.5 | 4.00 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Espen Eskas (Norway)
Matches – 15 (international matches, 2025–2026);
Average fouls per match – 21;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 3.6;
Matches with red cards – 0 of 15;
Matches with penalties – 7 of 15.
