Odds overview
Manchester City to win are clear favourites at 1.65, while the draw is quoted at 4.30 and Aston Villa to win at around 4.70. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.53 is considerably more likely than Under 2.5 goals at 2.40. Manchester City Draw No Bet (0) at 1.27 is much shorter than Aston Villa Draw No Bet (0) at 3.40.
Why Manchester City are favourites
Bookmakers give the visitors a clear advantage: Manchester City are 1.65 to win, compared with 4.70 for an Aston Villa win and 4.30 for the draw.
• Manchester City are averaging 2.71 goals per match in the Premier League this season and are unbeaten in 11 consecutive away games (7 wins and 4 draws).
• Aston Villa are 12th in the table with 8 points and score exactly one goal per game.
Form and Line-up Aston Villa
Aston Villa won their previous league match away to Newcastle United 1:0, then beat Norwegian side Viking 3:1 in the UEFA Champions League league phase on Wednesday. The Claret and Blues began picking up points regularly after Johan Manzambi recovered, but the Swiss player felt discomfort after the match against Newcastle United and missed the Champions League game. It remains unclear whether he will play on 24 October 2026.
- There have been over 20.5 fouls in 8 of the team's last 10 Premier League home matches.
- There have been over 2.5 offsides in 9 of the team's last 10 Premier League home matches.
- There have been over 3.5 cards in 9 of the team's last 10 Premier League home matches.
Probable Aston Villa line-up (4-2-3-1): Zion Suzuki, Matty Cash, Victor Lindelöf, Tyrone Mings, Ian Maatsen, Boubacar Kamara, Joao Gomes, John McGinn, Emiliano Buendia, Ibrahim Mbaye, Nicolas Jackson
Absentees: Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Matteo Ruggeri, Amadou Onana (injured); Johan Manzambi (doubtful)
Form and Line-up Manchester City
Manchester City beat Ipswich Town 3:2 in the previous round. It was Enzo Maresca's team's seventh win in seven league matches. They cannot relax, with Arsenal just three points behind. City also have injury concerns. One of their key players, Antoine Semenyo, injured a knee collateral ligament against Ipswich Town and will be out until at least mid-December. Whether the injured Mateo Kovačić, Nico O'Reilly and Matheus Nunes will play on 24 October 2026 will be decided before the match.
- There have been over 2.5 offsides in all 10 of Manchester City's last 10 Premier League away matches.
- Manchester City's opponents have scored under 1.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 Premier League away matches.
- Manchester City's opponents have recorded over 1.5 offsides in 9 of their last 10 Premier League away matches.
Probable Manchester City line-up (4-2-3-1): Gianluigi Donnarumma, Abdukodir Khusanov, Rúben Dias, Marc Guéhi, Joško Gvardiol, Ayyoub Bouaddi, Enzo Fernández, Iliman Ndiaye, Phil Foden, Jérémy Doku, Erling Haaland
Absentees: Antoine Semenyo (injured); Mateo Kovačić, Nico O'Reilly, Matheus Nunes (doubtful)
The teams' chances
Aston Villa to win are available at 4.70, with fair odds of 4.94 and a 20.2% probability; the draw is 4.30, 4.52 and 22.1%, respectively. Manchester City to win at 1.65 have fair odds of 1.73 and a 57.6% probability, making them the favourites.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 4.70 | 4.94 | 20.2% |
| Draw | 4.30 | 4.52 | 22.1% |
| Manchester City win | 1.65 | 1.73 | 57.6% |
Total goals prediction
Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.53, compared with 2.40 for Under 2.5 goals. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 goals at 1.63 is favoured, while Over 3.5 goals is quoted at 2.30.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.40 | 1.53 |
| 3.5 | 1.63 | 2.30 |
Handicap prediction
Manchester City (-1.5) at 2.55 are considerably shorter than Aston Villa (-1.5) at 7.50. At a handicap of 1, Manchester City (+1) at 1.06 are favoured over Aston Villa (+1) at 1.78; at the 1.5 line, Manchester City (+1.5) are 1.05 compared with 1.48 for Aston Villa (+1.5). For the zero handicap, Manchester City (0) are 1.27 and Aston Villa (0) are 3.40.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 7.50 | -1.5 | 2.55 |
| 1.48 | 1.5 | 1.05 |
| 6.50 | -1 | 2.05 |
| 1.78 | 1 | 1.06 |
| 3.40 | 0 | 1.27 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is quoted at 1.57 and looks more likely than Both teams to score — No at 2.35, which means at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.57 |
| No | 2.35 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
6/5
|
1/4
|
17/100
|
| 888sport |
11/10
|
1/4
|
1/5
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Aston Villa — 1 goal; Manchester City — 2 goals.
Aston Villa team goals
For Aston Villa's team goals, Over 0.5 at 1.40 is favoured over Under 0.5 at 2.75. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 at 1.80 is slightly shorter than Over 1 at 1.95; at 1.5, Under 1.5 is 1.37 compared with 2.85 for Over 1.5.
| Under | Team goals line | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.75 | 0.5 | 1.40 |
| 1.80 | 1 | 1.95 |
| 1.37 | 1.5 | 2.85 |
Manchester City team goals
For Manchester City's team goals, Over 0.5 at 1.07 is much shorter than Under 0.5 at 6.20, while Over 1.5 at 1.58 is shorter than Under 1.5 at 2.30. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 at 1.75 is slightly favoured over Over 2 at 2.00; at 2.5, Under 2.5 is 1.47 compared with 2.60 for Over 2.5.
| Under | Team goals line | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 6.20 | 0.5 | 1.07 |
| 2.30 | 1.5 | 1.58 |
| 1.75 | 2 | 2.00 |
| 1.47 | 2.5 | 2.60 |
