Odds overview
In the 1X2 market, the home win has a slight edge at 2.20: the away win is available at 3.25 and the draw at 3.45. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals at 1.85 is shorter than Over 2.5 goals at 1.95. Aston Villa Draw No Bet at 1.60 looks preferable to Nottingham Forest Draw No Bet at 2.35.
Why Aston Villa are favourites for the match
The bookmakers favour the home side: an Aston Villa win is available at 2.20, while a Nottingham Forest victory is at 3.25 and the draw at 3.45.
• Close together in the table: after three matches, Nottingham Forest are 16th with 2 points and Aston Villa are 17th with 1 point, with neither side yet to win in the league.
• The home side's attacking potential in Europe: unlike their drought in the domestic league, Aston Villa produced an impressive Champions League display, winning 3:2 away to Club Brugge.
Form and Line-up Aston Villa
Aston Villa have experienced serious problems in the final third in the opening Premier League matches: they have not scored in three games and share last place in the league for goals scored with two other clubs. They have created very little too — only 2.19 xG in three matches.
Their congested schedule is an additional burden: the Birmingham side played an away Champions League match in Belgium on 8 September, leaving Unai Emery's coaching staff with limited time to prepare and recover for the league fixture.
Key numbers:
• At least three offsides have been recorded in each of Aston Villa's last 10 Premier League home matches
• Aston Villa have not won the offside count in any of their last 10 Premier League home matches
• In 8 of Aston Villa's last 10 Premier League home matches, they and their opponents have received a combined minimum of four yellow cards
Probable Aston Villa line-up (4-2-3-1): Zion Suzuki – Matty Cash, Victor Lindelof, Tyrone Mings, Ian Maatsen – Boubacar Kamara, Ross Barkley – John McGinn, Emiliano Buendia, George Hemmings – Nicolas Jackson
Absentees: Amadou Onana, Brian Madzho, Johan Manzambi, Leon Goretzka (injured), Joao Gomes (suspended)
Form and Line-up Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest have produced restrained results in the opening league matches: after a 0:1 defeat to Leeds, the visitors drew 2:2 with Liverpool and 0:0 with Tottenham.
Ahead of Matchday 4, the average number of goals in Nottingham Forest matches is 1.67 per game, placing them second from bottom for this metric in the current Premier League season.
Key numbers:
• Over 2.5 goals has landed in 9 of Nottingham Forest's last 10 Premier League away matches
• Nottingham Forest have scored at least two goals in 8 of their last 10 Premier League away matches
• In 9 of their last 10 Premier League away matches, Nottingham Forest's opponents have had more than 12.5 shots, including blocked efforts
Probable Nottingham Forest line-up (3-4-2-1): Matz Sels – Jair, Nikola Milenkovic, Murillo – Ola Aina, Xaver Schlager, James McAtee, Neco Williams – Dan Ndoye, Morgan Gibbs-White – Liam Delap
Absentees: Nicolo Savona (injured)
Team chances
A home win at 2.20 corresponds to fair odds of 2.31 and a probability of 43.2%; the away win has figures of 3.25, 3.42 and 29.2%. The draw is available at 3.45, with fair odds of 3.63 and a probability of 27.6%.
Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | No-margin probability |
Aston Villa to win | 2.20 | 2.31 | 43.2% |
Draw | 3.45 | 3.63 | 27.6% |
Nottingham Forest to win | 3.25 | 3.42 | 29.2% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5 line, Under 2.5 goals at 1.85 is shorter than Over 2.5 goals at 1.95. At 3.5, there is a clear advantage for Under 3.5 goals at 1.33 versus 3.05 for Over 3.5 goals.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 1.85 | 1.95 |
3.5 | 1.33 | 3.05 |
Handicap prediction
For Aston Villa (-1.5), odds of 3.80 are shorter than 6.10 for Nottingham Forest (-1.5). At the 1.5 line, Aston Villa (+1.5) at 1.08 is shorter than Nottingham Forest (+1.5) at 1.22; at the -1 line, the odds are 3.10 versus 5.30. For the handicap line of 1, the odds are 1.11 for Aston Villa (+1) and 1.32 for Nottingham Forest (+1), while at zero they are 1.60 for Aston Villa (0) versus 2.35 for Nottingham Forest (0).
Home | Handicap | Away |
3.80 | -1.5 | 6.10 |
1.08 | 1.5 | 1.22 |
3.10 | -1 | 5.30 |
1.11 | 1 | 1.32 |
1.60 | 0 | 2.35 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - Yes at 1.75 is shorter than Both teams to score - No at 2.03, meaning the market rates a goal exchange slightly more highly than a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.75 |
No | 2.03 |
Double chance prediction
12 at 1.33 and 1X at 1.35 are rated almost equally and shorter than X2 at 1.68; the no-draw option has marginally lower odds.
1X | 12 | X2 |
7/20
|
33/100
|
17/25
|
Team total prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: Aston Villa — 1.5 goals; Nottingham Forest — 1 goal.
Aston Villa team total
Aston Villa team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.20 is substantially shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 3.90, while at the line of 1, Over 1 is 1.43 versus 2.65 for Under 1. At 1.5, Under 1.5 goals at 1.70 is shorter than Over 1.5 goals at 2.10; at the line of 2, Under 2 is 1.28 versus 3.35 for Over 2.
Under | Team total | Over |
3.90 | 0.5 | 1.20 |
2.65 | 1 | 1.43 |
1.70 | 1.5 | 2.10 |
1.28 | 2 | 3.35 |
Nottingham Forest team total
Nottingham Forest team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.37 is notably shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 2.85. At the line of 1, Over 1 at 1.80 is slightly shorter than Under 1 at 1.95, while at 1.5, Under 1.5 goals at 1.38 is preferable to Over 1.5 goals at 2.80.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.85 | 0.5 | 1.37 |
1.95 | 1 | 1.80 |
1.38 | 1.5 | 2.80 |
