Form and Line-up
Atalanta last week produced a sensational away win over Milan (3:2). At the same time, the scoreline alone should not lead to hasty conclusions, because until the 88th minute the visitors were three goals up. The hero of that evening was undoubtedly goalkeeper Marco Carnesecchi, who made seven saves and twice came out on top in one-on-one situations. Most importantly, it was clear that there could be no talk of the team losing motivation.
Key numbers for Atalanta:
Atalanta is sixth in possession (55.3%).
Atalanta is fifth in xG (55.7) and shots on target (4.7).
Atalanta is fifth in home points (33).
Probable Atalanta line-up (3-4-3):
Marco Carnesecchi – Giorgio Scalvini, Isak Hien, Sead Kolasinac – Davide Zappacosta, Marten de Roon, Ederson, Nicola Zalewski – Charles De Ketelaere, Nikola Krstovic, Giacomo Raspadori
Unavailable: Lorenzo Bernasconi, Berat Djimsiti (both – injury)
Form and Line-up
Bologna on Monday ended a run of four matches without a win by beating Napoli away (3:2). Even so, it is hard to say that it was fully deserved. One goal the visitors scored came from the penalty spot, while their open-play xG was only 0.48. What is that if not good fortune? It is also worth noting that once again starting centre-forward Castro left the pitch without scoring; his last goal came as long ago as 19 March, nine matches ago.
Key numbers for Bologna:
Bologna is seventh in possession (55.3%).
Bologna is 11th in xG (42.3) and 13th in shots on target (3.8).
Bologna is the leader in accurate long passes (31).
Probable Bologna line-up (4-3-3):
Massimo Pessina – Joao Mario, Eyvind Helland, Torbjorn Heggem, Juan Miranda – Remo Freuler, Lewis Ferguson, Tommaso Pobega – Riccardo Orsolini, Santiago Castro, Federico Bernardeschi
Unavailable: Nicolo Casale, Nicolo Cambiaghi, Martin Vitik (all – injury), Jhon Lucumi (suspension)
Match prediction Atalanta vs Bologna
Both teams have recently gone through a serious slump and are now doing everything they can to redeem themselves in front of their fans. For Atalanta this is the last home match of the season, so slipping up in it is not allowed.
Betting Tip
The match between Atalanta and Bologna has an excellent chance of being one of the highlights of the 37th round. Both teams like to dominate the ball, so we should not expect either of them to park the bus. Moreover, they both rank in the top 10 in the Serie A for interceptions in the final third (3.9 and 3.4 respectively).
The key difference between the teams is their understanding of what to do with the ball. Atalanta have perfected fast breaks through vertical passes. A key role in this is played by Charles De Ketelaere, who has already created as many as 17 big chances for team-mates. However, the Belgian's contribution is truly felt thanks to the excellent finishing of the strike duo Krstovic and Scamacca: between them they have 20 goals from 20.3 xG.
Bologna, by contrast, are much worse in terms of creativity in the final third. The emphasis is on long balls into the channels, but Atalanta use a back five when defending, so that is unlikely to be a serious problem for them. We should also not forget the absence of Jhon Lucumi. On average he makes 7.3 defensive actions per game and it would have been his job to contain Atalanta's target man. It is unlikely that the young Helland will cope with this task.
Prediction: Atalanta to win
Additional Bet
Bologna, who like to play in an end-to-end manner, will consistently be caught by the opponents' counter-attacks. As we have already said, Atalanta are not the kind of side that waste chances. Combined with the absence of the first-choice centre-back, this could prove fatal for the visitors' defence.
Prediction: Atalanta, over 1.5 goals
