Odds overview
Atalanta BC are clear favourites — they are available to win at 1.40, while the draw is quoted at 4.90 and a Pafos win at 7.80. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals is favoured at 1.55, compared with 2.40 for Under 2.5 goals. Pafos (+1.5) is slightly shorter at 1.83 than Atalanta BC (-1.5) at 1.97.
Why Atalanta BC are favourites
The bookmakers give the hosts a clear advantage: Atalanta BC are available to win at 1.40, the draw is offered at 4.90 and a Pafos win at 7.80.
• Atalanta BC have more quality than their opponents and defend reliably at home: in 8 of their last 10 home matches in all competitions, their opponents scored fewer than 1.5 goals.
• Atalanta BC play in one of Europe's top five leagues.
• The visitors have less quality than the favourites and rarely pose a direct threat to goal in European competition: Pafos failed to score in all four away matches in the league phase of the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League.
Form and Line-up Atalanta BC
On 12 October, Atalanta BC beat Venezia 3:1 at home, effectively settling the contest before half-time with three quick goals in the first half-hour. It was the first match under Maurizio Sarri in which the team scored more than twice.
- There were Under 3.5 goals in 8 of Atalanta BC's last 10 home matches in all competitions.
- There were fewer than 24.5 fouls in 8 of the last 10 matches in all competitions in Bergamo.
- There were Under 3.5 goals in 9 of Atalanta BC's last 10 matches in all competitions.
- There were fewer than 9.5 corners in 8 of Atalanta BC's last 10 home matches in all competitions.
Probable Atalanta BC line-up (4-3-3): Marco Carnesecchi, Lorenzo Bernasconi, Thomas Kristensen, Sead Kolašinac, Davide Zappacosta, Ederson, Franck Kessié, Elif Elmas, Jonathan Rowe, Charles De Ketelaere, Nikola Krstović
Unavailable: Giorgio Scalvini, Odilon Kossounou, Kamaldeen Sulemana, Raoul Bellanova, Thomas Pompei (injured)
Form and Line-up Pafos
On 11 October, Pafos beat Anorthosis 3:1 away, scoring three times in the second half after trailing at the break. They are fourth in the Cypriot First Division after five rounds. Ricardo Sá Pinto's side have won all three of their away league matches so far, but have gone seven away matches without a win in European competition.
In 10 of 10 matches in the competition, Pafos's opponents took fewer than 4.5 corners.
- There were fewer than 9.5 corners in 9 of Pafos's last 10 UEFA Conference League matches.
- Pafos's opponents took fewer than 4.5 corners in each of their 10 UEFA Conference League matches.
- Pafos's opponents had fewer than 12.5 shots in 8 of their last 10 UEFA Conference League matches.
- There were fewer than 2.5 first-half goals in all 10 of Pafos's last matches in all competitions.
Probable Pafos line-up (4-3-3): Radoslaw Majecki, Yoram Zague, David Luiz, Samy Mmaee, Nicholas Ioannou, Ivan Šunjić, Pêpê, Vlad Dragomir, Domingos Quina, Biel, Lelé
The teams' chances
Atalanta BC are offered to win at 1.40; their fair odds are 1.47, representing a 68.3% probability. The draw is quoted at 4.90, with fair odds of 5.13 and a 19.5% probability. Pafos are available to win at 7.80; their fair odds are 8.16, representing a 12.3% probability.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 1.40 | 1.47 | 68.3% |
| Draw | 4.90 | 5.13 | 19.5% |
| Pafos win | 7.80 | 8.16 | 12.3% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 goals is offered at 2.40 and Over 2.5 goals at 1.55, so the market expects at least three goals. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 goals is shorter at 1.60 than Over 3.5 goals at 2.35.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.40 | 1.55 |
| 3.5 | 1.60 | 2.35 |
Handicap prediction
Atalanta BC (-1.5) are available at 1.97, while Pafos (+1.5) are offered at 1.83. At the 1-goal line, Atalanta BC (-1) are quoted at 1.55, compared with 2.35 for Pafos (+1). For the zero handicap, Atalanta BC (0, Draw No Bet) are quoted at 1.11 against 5.20 for Pafos (0, Draw No Bet).
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.97 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 1.83 | |
| 1.55 | -1 | |
| 1 | 2.35 | |
| 1.11 | 0 | 5.20 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is offered at 1.80, while Both teams to score — No is available at 1.97. The market gives a slight edge to both teams scoring; the No option means at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.80 |
| No | 1.97 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
2/25
|
17/100
|
9/4
|
| William Hill |
2/25
|
17/100
|
21/10
|
| 888sport |
2/25
|
17/100
|
21/10
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team goal totals: Atalanta BC — 2 goals; Pafos — 0.5 goals.
Atalanta BC team total goals
For Atalanta BC's team total, Under 0.5 goals is available at 7.80 and Over 0.5 goals at 1.04; at the 1.5-goal line, the respective odds are 2.65 and 1.42. Under 2 goals is quoted at 2.05 against 1.72 for Over 2 goals, while at the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 goals is 1.60 and Over 2.5 goals is 2.25.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 7.80 | 0.5 | 1.04 |
| 2.65 | 1.5 | 1.42 |
| 2.05 | 2 | 1.72 |
| 1.60 | 2.5 | 2.25 |
Pafos team total goals
For Pafos's team total, Under 0.5 goals is quoted at 2.15 and Over 0.5 goals at 1.65. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 goal is offered at 1.40 against 2.75 for Over 1 goal; at the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 goals is 1.20 and Over 1.5 goals is 4.15.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.15 | 0.5 | 1.65 |
| 1.40 | 1 | 2.75 |
| 1.20 | 1.5 | 4.15 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Adam Ladebäck (Sweden)
Matches — 5 (international fixtures, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 20;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 2.8;
Matches with a red card — 0 of 5;
Matches with a penalty — 0 of 5.
