Odds overview
Atalanta BC are clear favourites: an Atalanta BC win is offered at 1.40, a draw at 4.90 and a Pafos win at 7.80. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals is favoured at 1.55 against 2.40 for Under 2.5. Pafos (+1.5) have slightly shorter odds at 1.83 than Atalanta BC (-1.5) at 1.97.
Why Atalanta BC are favourites
Bookmakers give the home side a clear advantage: Atalanta BC are 1.40 to win, a draw is available at 4.90 and a Pafos win at 7.80.
• Atalanta BC have more quality than their opponents and defend reliably at home: their opponents scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 home matches in all competitions.
• Atalanta BC play in one of Europe's top five leagues.
• The visitors lack the favourites' quality and rarely pose a direct threat to goal in European matches: Pafos failed to score in all four away matches in the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League league phase.
Form and Line-up Atalanta BC
On 12 October, Atalanta BC beat Venezia 3:1 at home, effectively settling the contest before half-time with three quick goals in the opening half-hour. It was the first game under Maurizio Sarri in which the team scored more than twice.
- Atalanta BC's last 10 home matches in all competitions have featured Under 3.5 goals on 8 occasions.
- Fewer than 24.5 fouls were recorded in 8 of the last 10 matches in Bergamo across all competitions.
- Under 3.5 goals was recorded in 9 of Atalanta BC's last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Fewer than 9.5 corners were taken in 8 of Atalanta BC's last 10 home matches in all competitions.
Probable line-up (4-3-3): Marco Carnesecchi, Lorenzo Bernasconi, Thomas Kristensen, Sead Kolašinac, Davide Zappacosta, Ederson, Franck Kessié, Elif Elmas, Jonathan Rowe, Charles De Ketelaere, Nikola Krstović
Absentees: Giorgio Scalvini, Odilon Kossounou, Kamaldeen Sulemana, Raoul Bellanova, Thomas Pompei (injured)
Form and Line-up Pafos
On 11 October, Pafos beat Anorthosis 3:1 away, scoring three times in the second half after losing the first. They are fourth in the Cypriot First Division after five rounds. Ricardo Sá Pinto's side have won all three of their away league games so far, but have gone seven away matches without a win in European competition.
Pafos's opponents took fewer than 4.5 corners in all 10 tournament matches.
- Fewer than 9.5 corners were taken in 9 of Pafos's last 10 UEFA Conference League matches.
- Pafos's opponents took fewer than 4.5 corners in each of their 10 UEFA Conference League matches.
- Pafos's opponents had fewer than 12.5 shots in 8 of their last 10 UEFA Conference League matches.
- Fewer than 2.5 first-half goals were scored in each of Pafos's last 10 matches in all competitions.
Probable line-up (4-3-3): Radoslaw Majecki, Yoram Zague, David Luiz, Samy Mmaee, Nicholas Ioannou, Ivan Šunjić, Pêpê Rodrigues, Vlad Dragomir, Domingos Quina, Biel, Lelé
The teams' chances
An Atalanta BC win is offered at 1.40, with fair odds of 1.47 and a 68.3% probability. A draw is quoted at 4.90, with fair odds of 5.13 and a 19.5% probability. A Pafos win is available at 7.80, with fair odds of 8.16 and a 12.3% probability.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 1.40 | 1.47 | 68.3% |
| Draw | 4.90 | 5.13 | 19.5% |
| Pafos win | 7.80 | 8.16 | 12.3% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 is available at 2.40 and Over 2.5 at 1.55, so the market expects at least three goals. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 has shorter odds at 1.60 than Over 3.5 at 2.35.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.40 | 1.55 |
| 3.5 | 1.60 | 2.35 |
Handicap prediction
Atalanta BC (-1.5) are available at 1.97 and Pafos (+1.5) at 1.83. At the one-goal handicap line, Atalanta BC (-1) are 1.55, while Pafos (+1) are 2.35. At a zero handicap, Atalanta BC (0) are quoted at 1.11 against 5.20 for Pafos (0).
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.97 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 1.83 | |
| 1.55 | -1 | |
| 1 | 2.35 | |
| 1.11 | 0 | 5.20 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is offered at 1.80, while No is available at 1.97. There is a slight edge for both teams scoring; the No option means at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.80 |
| No | 1.97 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
2/25
|
9/50
|
2/1
|
| William Hill |
2/25
|
9/50
|
2/1
|
| 888sport |
2/25
|
9/50
|
2/1
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal lines for this match: Atalanta BC — 2 goals; Pafos — 0.5 goals.
Atalanta BC team goals
For Atalanta BC team goals, Under 0.5 is available at 7.80 and Over 0.5 at 1.04; at the 1.5-goal line, the respective odds are 2.65 and 1.42. Under 2 is quoted at 2.05 against 1.72 for Over 2, while at the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 is 1.60 and Over 2.5 is 2.25.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 7.80 | 0.5 | 1.04 |
| 2.65 | 1.5 | 1.42 |
| 2.05 | 2 | 1.72 |
| 1.60 | 2.5 | 2.25 |
Pafos team goals
For Pafos team goals, Under 0.5 is quoted at 2.15 and Over 0.5 at 1.65. At the one-goal line, Under 1 is 1.40 against 2.75 for Over 1, while at the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is 1.20 and Over 1.5 is 4.15.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.15 | 0.5 | 1.65 |
| 1.40 | 1 | 2.75 |
| 1.20 | 1.5 | 4.15 |
