Odds overview
In the 1X2 market, Athletic are clear favourites: the home win is available at 1.65, while the draw is at 3.90 and the away win at 5.50. Under 2.5 goals at 1.80 looks preferable to Over 2.5 at 2.00. At the 0 handicap, Athletic Draw No Bet at 1.23 is considerably shorter than Alaves Draw No Bet at 3.75.
Why Athletic are favourites for the match
The bookmakers favour the home side: an Athletic win is available at 1.65 (around a 58.0% probability without margin), while the draw is offered at 3.90 and an Alaves win at 5.50.
- At home, the Basques have controlled shots on target confidently: in 9 of their last 10 La Liga matches, Athletic have not been outshot on target by their opponents.
- Ahead of the round, the Bilbao side have established themselves in the top half of the table with 7 points from 5 matches, ahead of their opponents on points dropped in their head-to-head race.
Form and Line-up Athletic
In their most recent league match, Athletic shared the points with Elche (1:1), after which their planned trip to Levante was called off because of adverse weather. The unexpected break spared the Basques a congested schedule, although the team had already travelled to Valencia and returned to Bilbao.
At their home ground, the hosts regularly play pragmatic matches: no more than three goals were scored in 9 of Athletic's last 10 home La Liga games. Athletic also make active use of the flanks — averaging 12.0 corners per game, the Basques rank among the tournament's top three teams for set pieces.
- At home, Athletic's opponents scored no more than 1 goal in 8 of their last 10 La Liga matches.
- In 9 of 10 home league matches, Athletic's opponents took no more than 5 corners.
- In 9 of 10 home La Liga games, Athletic's opponents committed no more than 12 fouls.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Unai Simon, Jesus Areso, Yeray Alvarez, Aymeric Laporte, Yuri Berchiche, Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta, Benat Gerenabarrena, Robert Navarro, Oihan Sancet, Nico Williams, Inaki Williams
Form and Line-up Alaves
Alaves come into the derby after a home setback against Valencia (0:1). Before that defeat, the club made a productive start, while head coach Quique Sanchez Flores received the La Liga Coach of the Month award for August.
Away from home, the visitors favour a tight contest and look to respond with sharp counter-attacks: at least 26 fouls were recorded in all of Alaves's last 10 away league matches. The team are not afraid to attack from any position, attempting at least 12 shots in 8 of 10 away fixtures.
- In 9 of their last 10 away La Liga matches, Alaves committed at least 13 fouls.
- No more than 3 goals were scored in 9 of Alaves's last 10 league matches.
- There were 4 or more yellow cards in 8 of Alaves's last 10 away La Liga games.
Probable line-up (4-4-2): Antonio Sivera, Angel Perez, Nicolas Valentini, Nahuel Tenaglia, Ville Koski, Abde Rebbach, Antonio Blanco, Pablo Ibanez, Denis Suarez, Lucas Boye, Toni Martinez
Team chances
Athletic to win is available at 1.65, with fair odds of 1.72 and a 58.0% probability. The draw is quoted at 3.90, with fair odds of 4.07 and a 24.6% probability. Alaves to win is available at 5.50, with fair odds of 5.74 and a 17.4% probability: the market rates the hosts noticeably higher.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Bilbao win | 1.65 | 1.72 | 58.0% |
| Draw | 3.90 | 4.07 | 24.6% |
| Alaves win | 5.50 | 5.74 | 17.4% |
Total goals prediction
Under 2.5 goals is at 1.80 and Over 2.5 at 2.00, which slightly tilts expectations towards a lower-scoring match. At the 3.5 line, the advantage for Under is even more pronounced: 1.30 versus 3.20 for Over.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| 3.5 | 1.30 | 3.20 |
Handicap prediction
Athletic (-1.5) is available at 2.65, while Alaves (+1.5) is at 1.40. At the 1 line, Athletic (-1) is at 2.15 and Alaves (+1) at 1.70. With the 0 handicap, Athletic Draw No Bet at 1.23 is quoted considerably shorter than Alaves Draw No Bet at 3.75, underlining the hosts' advantage.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.65 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 1.40 | |
| 2.15 | -1 | |
| 1 | 1.70 | |
| 1.23 | 0 | 3.75 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - No is available at 1.78, compared with 1.98 for Both teams to score - Yes, so the scenario in which at least one team does not score is considered slightly more likely.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.98 |
| No | 1.78 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
17/100
|
1/4
|
23/20
|
| 888sport |
3/20
|
1/4
|
5/4
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: Athletic — 1.5 goals, Alaves — 0.5 goals.
Athletic team total
Athletic team total: Under 0.5 is at 4.80 and Over 0.5 at 1.13; at the 1 line, the odds are 3.45 for Under and 1.27 for Over. At the 1.5 mark, Under at 1.95 is slightly longer than Over at 1.80, while at the 2 line, Under is quoted at 1.45 against 2.65 for Over.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.80 | 0.5 | 1.13 |
| 3.45 | 1 | 1.27 |
| 1.95 | 1.5 | 1.80 |
| 1.45 | 2 | 2.65 |
Alaves team total
Alaves team total: Under 0.5 is available at 2.10 and Over 0.5 at 1.70. At the 1 line, Under is quoted at 1.40 against 2.70 for Over, while at the 1.5 mark it is 1.20 against 4.15: the market expects the visitors to score no more than one goal.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.10 | 0.5 | 1.70 |
| 1.40 | 1 | 2.70 |
| 1.20 | 1.5 | 4.15 |
