Odds overview
In the 1X2 market, Athletic are clear favourites: a home win is available at 1.65, while the draw is quoted at 3.90 and an away win at 5.50. Under 2.5 goals at 1.80 looks preferable to Over 2.5 at 2.00. In the handicap market at 0, Athletic Draw No Bet at 1.23 is significantly shorter than Deportivo Alavés Draw No Bet at 3.75.
Why Athletic are favourites
Bookmakers favour the home side: Athletic to win is quoted at 1.65 (around a 58.0% probability without margin), while the draw is available at 3.90 and a Deportivo Alavés win at 5.50.
- At home, the Basques control shots on target confidently: in 9 of their last 10 La Liga matches, Athletic have not been outshot on target by their opponents.
- Ahead of the matchday, the Bilbao side have established themselves in the top half of the table with 7 points from 5 matches, ahead of their opponents on points dropped in the indirect race.
Form and Line-up Athletic
In their most recent league match, Athletic shared the points with Elche (1:1), after which their planned trip to Levante was called off due to adverse weather. The unexpected break spared the Basques fixture congestion, although the team had already travelled to Valencia and returned to Bilbao.
At their home ground, Athletic regularly play pragmatic matches: no more than three goals were scored in 9 of their last 10 home La Liga games. Athletic also use the flanks actively — averaging 12.0 corners per game, the Basques rank among the tournament's top three teams for set-piece deliveries.
- At home, Athletic's opponents scored no more than 1 goal in 8 of their last 10 La Liga matches.
- In 9 of their last 10 home league matches, Athletic's opponents took no more than 5 corners.
- In 9 of their last 10 home La Liga games, Athletic's opponents committed no more than 12 fouls.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Unai Simón, Jesús Areso, Yeray Álvarez, Aymeric Laporte, Yuri Berchiche, Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta, Beñat Gerenabarrena, Robert Navarro, Oihan Sancet, Nico Williams, Iñaki Williams
Form and Line-up Deportivo Alavés
Deportivo Alavés come into the derby after a home setback against Valencia (0:1). Before that defeat, the club had made a productive start, while head coach Quique Sánchez Flores received La Liga's Manager of the Month award for August.
Away from home, the visitors rely on a tight contest and look to respond with sharp breaks: at least 26 fouls were recorded in all of Deportivo Alavés' last 10 away league matches. The team are not afraid to attack from any position, attempting at least 12 shots in 8 of their last 10 away games.
- In 9 of their last 10 away La Liga matches, Deportivo Alavés committed at least 13 fouls.
- No more than 3 goals were scored in 9 of Deportivo Alavés' last 10 league matches.
- There were 4 or more yellow cards in 8 of Deportivo Alavés' last 10 away La Liga games.
Probable line-up (4-4-2): Antonio Sivera, Ángel Pérez, Nicolás Valentini, Nahuel Tenaglia, Ville Koski, Abde Rebbach, Antonio Blanco, Pablo Ibáñez, Denis Suárez, Lucas Boyé, Toni Martínez
Team chances
Athletic to win is available at 1.65, with fair odds of 1.72 and a probability of 58.0%. The draw is quoted at 3.90, with fair odds of 4.07 and a probability of 24.6%. Deportivo Alavés to win is available at 5.50, with fair odds of 5.74 and a probability of 17.4%: the market rates the home side considerably higher.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Bilbao win | 1.65 | 1.72 | 58.0% |
| Draw | 3.90 | 4.07 | 24.6% |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 5.50 | 5.74 | 17.4% |
Total goals prediction
Under 2.5 goals is available at 1.80, while Over 2.5 is at 2.00, which slightly favours expectations of a lower-scoring game. At the 3.5 line, the advantage for Under is even more pronounced: 1.30 versus 3.20 for Over.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| 3.5 | 1.30 | 3.20 |
Handicap prediction
Athletic (-1.5) is quoted at 2.65, while Deportivo Alavés (+1.5) is at 1.40. At the 1 line, Athletic (-1) is available at 2.15 and Deportivo Alavés (+1) at 1.70. With a level handicap, Athletic Draw No Bet at 1.23 is quoted significantly shorter than Deportivo Alavés Draw No Bet at 3.75, underlining the home side's advantage.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.65 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 1.40 | |
| 2.15 | -1 | |
| 1 | 1.70 | |
| 1.23 | 0 | 3.75 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - No is available at 1.78, compared with 1.98 for Both teams to score - Yes, so a scenario in which at least one team fails to score is considered slightly more likely.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.98 |
| No | 1.78 |
Double chance forecast
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team totals: Athletic — 1.5 goals; Deportivo Alavés — 0.5 goals.
Athletic team total
Athletic team total: Under 0.5 is available at 4.80 and Over 0.5 at 1.13; at the 1 line, the odds are 3.45 for Under and 1.27 for Over. At the 1.5 mark, Under at 1.95 is slightly longer than Over at 1.80, while at the 2 line Under is quoted at 1.45 against 2.65 for Over.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.80 | 0.5 | 1.13 |
| 3.45 | 1 | 1.27 |
| 1.95 | 1.5 | 1.80 |
| 1.45 | 2 | 2.65 |
Deportivo Alavés team total
Deportivo Alavés team total: Under 0.5 is available at 2.10 and Over 0.5 at 1.70. At the 1 line, Under is quoted at 1.40 against 2.70 for Over, while at the 1.5 mark it is 1.20 versus 4.15: the market expects the visitors to score no more than one goal.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.10 | 0.5 | 1.70 |
| 1.40 | 1 | 2.70 |
| 1.20 | 1.5 | 4.15 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Víctor García (Spain)
Matches — 22 (La Liga, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 24;
Average yellow cards per match, including second yellows — 3.1;
Matches with red cards — 4 of 22;
Matches with penalties — 4 of 22.
