Odds overview
In the 1X2 market, the away win has a slight edge at 2.45 over the home win at 2.85, with the draw at 3.45. The main 2.5-goal line is evenly priced, with Under 2.5 goals and Over 2.5 goals both at 1.90. On the handicap 0 line, Atletico Madrid Draw No Bet at 1.78 is preferred to Athletic Club Draw No Bet at 2.05.
Why Atletico Madrid are favourites
An Atletico Madrid win is available at 2.45, the draw at 3.45 and an Athletic Club win at 2.85. The arguments for this assessment are:
- The Madrid side have looked more convincing at the start of the league campaign: an away 3:1 win over Sevilla, a 2:2 draw with Villarreal and a 2:0 win over Malaga.
- Atletico Madrid have been prolific at the start of the season — averaging 2.33 goals per match. They have also found a way to attack without a recognised centre-forward, using the mobile Baena and Lookman.
- Athletic Club have made an unconvincing start to the season: a 0:2 home defeat to Barcelona and a 1:3 away loss to Sevilla, before beating Celta Vigo 2:0 only in the most recent round.
Form and Line-up Athletic Club
In the previous round, Athletic Club won away to Celta Vigo 2:0, scoring twice in two minutes without the Celts finding a reply. Edin Terzic highlighted the intensity of the pressing and the team's cohesion, calling the result key to restoring confidence after defeats to Barcelona 0:2 and Sevilla 1:3.
Key numbers:
Athletic Club conceded first in 4 of their last 5 matches.
Fewer than 4 yellow cards were shown in 9 of the previous 10 matches.
The Basques lost to Atletico Madrid in 4 of their last 5 matches.
Probable Athletic Club line-up (4-2-3-1): Unai Simon — Jesus Areso, Aitor Paredes, Aymeric Laporte, Yuri Berchiche — Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta, Benat Gerenabarrena — Robert Navarro, Oihan Sancet, Alex Berenguer — Inaki Williams.
Absentees: Andoni Gorosabel (doubtful), Dani Vivian and Benat Prados (both injured).
Form and Line-up Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid beat Sevilla 3:1 away from home in matchday 3, deciding the outcome in the first half. The win was telling because Diego Simeone went without recognised centre-forwards: Alex Baena and Ademola Lookman formed a mobile attacking pair. Earlier, the Madrid side drew 2:2 with Villarreal and beat Malaga 2:0.
Key numbers:
Both teams to score - Yes and Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of the previous 8 matches.
Atletico Madrid scored first in 6 of their last 7 matches.
Fewer than 10 corners were taken in 6 consecutive matches.
Probable Atletico Madrid line-up (4-4-2): Jan Oblak — Marcos Llorente, Marc Pubill, David Hancko, Alex Grimaldo — Giuliano Simeone, Pablo Barrios, Morten Hjulmand, Ademola Lookman — Lee Kang-in, Alex Baena.
Absentees: Alexander Sorloth (injured), Julian Alvarez (doubtful).
Team chances
Away win — 2.45, fair odds of 2.57 and a 38.9% probability; home win — 2.85, 2.99 and 33.5%. The draw is available at 3.45, with fair odds of 3.62 and a probability of 27.6%.
Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
Athletic Club to win | 2.85 | 2.99 | 33.5% |
Draw | 3.45 | 3.62 | 27.6% |
Atletico Madrid to win | 2.45 | 2.57 | 38.9% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 goals and Over 2.5 goals are both available at 1.90, which does not favour either option. At 3.5, Under 3.5 goals is considerably shorter at 1.35, while Over 3.5 goals is offered at 2.95.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 1.90 | 1.90 |
3.5 | 1.35 | 2.95 |
Handicap prediction
A big win for either side is considered unlikely: Athletic Club (-1.5) is available at 5.10 and Atletico Madrid (-1.5) at 4.50. At the 1.5 line, Athletic Club (+1.5) at 1.15 and Atletico Madrid (+1.5) at 1.11 are short; at the 1 line, the respective odds are 1.22 and 1.16. Atletico Madrid Draw No Bet at 1.78 is shorter than Athletic Club Draw No Bet at 2.05, while on the -1 line Atletico Madrid (-1) at 3.80 is preferred to Athletic Club (-1) at 4.40.
Home | Handicap | Away |
5.10 | -1.5 | 4.50 |
1.15 | 1.5 | 1.11 |
4.40 | -1 | 3.80 |
1.22 | 1 | 1.16 |
2.05 | 0 | 1.78 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - Yes at 1.70 is shorter than Both teams to score - No at 2.10: the market is more likely to expect goals from both teams than a scenario in which at least one does not score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.70 |
No | 2.10 |
Double chance prediction
The lowest odds are for 12 at 1.30, followed by X2 at 1.42, while 1X is offered at 1.55. The market rates the risk of a draw slightly higher in the home-team option.
1X | 12 | X2 |
11/20
|
3/10
|
21/50
|
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team totals for this match: Athletic Club — 1 goal, Atletico Madrid — 1.5 goals.
Athletic Club team total
Athletic Club team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.30 is considerably shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 3.20; at the 1-goal line, Over 1 goal at 1.60 is shorter than Under 1 goal at 2.25. At 1.5, the balance changes: Under 1.5 goals — 1.53, Over 1.5 goals — 2.45.
Under | Team total | Over |
3.20 | 0.5 | 1.30 |
2.25 | 1 | 1.60 |
1.53 | 1.5 | 2.45 |
Atletico Madrid team total
Atletico Madrid team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.25 is considerably shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 3.65, while Over 1 goal at 1.50 is shorter than Under 1 goal at 2.55. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 goals at 1.60 is preferred to Over 1.5 goals at 2.30; at 2, Under 2 goals is available at 1.22 and Over 2 goals at 3.80.
Under | Team total | Over |
3.65 | 0.5 | 1.25 |
2.55 | 1 | 1.50 |
1.60 | 1.5 | 2.30 |
1.22 | 2 | 3.80 |
