Odds overview
Athletic are clear favourites: a home win is available at around 1.42, while the draw is 5.00 and an Elche win is 7.20. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.68 is preferred to Under 2.5 goals at 2.20. In the handicap market, Athletic (-1.5) are available at 2.15 and Elche (+1.5) at 1.70: the market rates the visitors slightly more highly to keep the margin down.
Why Athletic are favourites
An Athletic win is available at 1.42, the draw at 5.00 and an Elche win at 7.20. The arguments for this assessment are:
Athletic go into the match after a convincing 3:0 home win over Atletico Madrid.
Elche lost 2:3 to Real Sociedad in the previous round, conceding three times at home. The visitors' defence regularly falters, and that could prove decisive against attacking Athletic.
Athletic have lost only once in their last six head-to-head meetings with Elche.
Form and Line-up Athletic
Athletic began their La Liga season with two consecutive defeats, but then recovered with two clean-sheet wins — over Celta 2:0 and Atletico 3:0. After the opening four league rounds, the Basque side have six points and sit 10th with a goal difference of 6:5.
Key numbers:
Athletic's opponents have taken no more than 5 corners in 9 of their last 10 La Liga home matches.
In 9 of their last 10 La Liga home matches, Athletic's opponents have had fewer than 12.5 shots.
Athletic Bilbao have scored fewer than 2.5 goals in 8 of their last 9 La Liga home matches.
Probable Athletic line-up (4-2-3-1): Unai Simon — Jesus Areso, Aitor Paredes, Aymeric Laporte, Yuri Berchiche — Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta, Benat Gerenabarrena — Robert Navarro, Oihan Sancet, Nico Williams — Inaki Williams.
Absentees: Nico Serrano, Yeray Alvarez (both doubts), Dani Vivian, Benat Prados, Peio Canales (all injured).
Form and Line-up Elche
Elche picked up a point against Deportivo (1:1) in the first round, but then lost three consecutive matches. Anselmi's side looked helpless only against Barcelona (0:5), but were impressive against Racing (2:3) and Real Sociedad (2:3).
Key numbers:
Elche have scored at least one goal in 9 of their last 10 La Liga away matches.
At least 27 fouls by both teams have been recorded in 9 of Elche's last 10 La Liga away matches.
Elche players have been caught offside twice or fewer in 10 of their last 10 La Liga away matches.
Probable Elche line-up (3-5-2): Matias Dituro — Buba Sangare, Victor Chust, Pedro Bigas — Tete Morente, Javier Morcillo, Facundo Buonanotte, Gonzalo Villar, German Valera — Fernando Nino, Ezequiel Ponce.
Absentees: Adam Boyar, Yago Santiago (both injured).
Team chances
Athletic Bilbao to win is available at 1.42; the fair odds are 1.48, with a probability of 67.5%. The draw is offered at 5.00, with fair odds of 5.22 and a probability of 19.2%, while an Elche win is 7.20, with fair odds of 7.51 and a probability of 13.3%.
Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | No-margin probability |
Athletic Bilbao to win | 1.42 | 1.48 | 67.5% |
Draw | 5.00 | 5.22 | 19.2% |
Elche to win | 7.20 | 7.51 | 13.3% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5 line, Under 2.5 goals at 2.20 has longer odds than Over 2.5 goals at 1.68. The picture is reversed at 3.5: Under 3.5 goals is 1.50 and Over 3.5 goals is 2.55.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 2.20 | 1.68 |
3.5 | 1.50 | 2.55 |
Handicap prediction
Athletic (-1.5) are available at 2.15, while Elche (+1.5) are 1.70. At the handicap line of 1, Athletic (-1) are 1.63 and Elche (+1) are 2.20. With a zero handicap, Athletic (0) are quoted at 1.13 and Elche (0) at 4.90.
Home | Handicap | Away |
2.15 | -1.5 | — |
— | 1.5 | 1.70 |
1.63 | -1 | — |
— | 1 | 2.20 |
1.13 | 0 | 4.90 |
Both teams to score prediction
The odds on Both teams to score - Yes and Both teams to score - No are virtually level: 1.87 versus 1.88. The market does not identify a notable scenario in which at least one team fails to score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.87 |
No | 1.88 |
Double chance prediction
The most likely double-chance outcome is 1X at 1.09, followed by 12 at 1.17. The X2 option has substantially longer odds at 2.85.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.09 | 1.17 | 2.85 |
Team total goals prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team totals: Athletic Bilbao — 2 goals; Elche — 0.5 goals.
Athletic Bilbao team total
Athletic Bilbao team total: Under 0.5 goals is 7.70 and Over 0.5 goals is 1.04. At the 1.5 line, Under 1.5 goals is 2.50 and Over 1.5 goals is 1.50; at the 2-goal mark, they are 1.88 and 1.87 respectively. At the 2.5 line, Under 2.5 goals is 1.50 and Over 2.5 goals is 2.50.
Under | Team total | Over |
7.70 | 0.5 | 1.04 |
2.50 | 1.5 | 1.50 |
1.88 | 2 | 1.87 |
1.50 | 2.5 | 2.50 |
Elche team total
Elche team total: Under 0.5 goals is available at 2.05 and Over 0.5 goals at 1.72. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 is 1.40 versus 2.75 for Over 1, while at the 1.5 mark, Under 1.5 goals is 1.20 and Over 1.5 goals is 4.00.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.05 | 0.5 | 1.72 |
1.40 | 1 | 2.75 |
1.20 | 1.5 | 4.00 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Manuel Orellana (Spain)
Matches — 24 (La Liga and Segunda, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 29;
Average yellow cards per match, including second yellows — 6.3;
Matches with red cards — 5 of 24;
Matches with penalties — 6 of 24.
