Odds overview
In the 1X2 market, Athletic Bilbao are slight favourites at 2.12, while Real Sociedad are available at 3.30 and the draw at 3.70. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.70 is markedly shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.15. The Draw No Bet odds are closest, with Athletic Bilbao (0) at 1.60 against Real Sociedad (0) at 2.35.
Why Athletic Bilbao are favourites
The odds make Athletic Bilbao favourites — the home side are available at 2.12 to win. Real Sociedad are at 3.30, while the draw is at 3.70.
- Athletic Bilbao defend reliably at home: their opponents have scored no more than one goal in 8 of their last 10 home league matches.
- Real Sociedad have conceded 11 of their 18 goals in away matches.
- Athletic Bilbao have lost at home to Real Sociedad only once in their last six meetings.
Form and Line-up Athletic Bilbao
On 29 October, Athletic Bilbao won emphatically away to Prat (6:1) in the Copa del Rey. The coaching staff rested Yuri Berchiche, Aymeric Laporte and Peio Canales for the cup match. In La Liga, after three draws and a defeat to Levante (1:3), the Basque side finally won again — beating Getafe (4:0).
- Athletic Bilbao have avoided defeat in 7 of their last 10 matches across all official competitions.
- Athletic Bilbao have matched or exceeded their opponents' shots on target in 9 of their last 10 home La Liga matches.
Probable Athletic Bilbao line-up (4-2-3-1):Unai Simón, Hugo Rincón, Dani Vivian, Aymeric Laporte, Yuri Berchiche, Peio Canales, Beñat Gerenabarrena, Iñaki Williams, Álex Berenguer, Nico Williams, Maroan Sannadi.
Absentees: Ruiz de Galarreta, Unai Egiluz and Gorka Guruzeta (all injured); Oihan Sancet (doubtful).
Form and Line-up Real Sociedad
In their previous league match, on 25 October, Real Sociedad beat Levante 2:1 at home. Before that, on 22 October, they thrashed Lillestrøm (6:0) in the Europa League. That made it six matches unbeaten for Matarazzo's side.
- Real Sociedad have avoided defeat in 8 of their last 10 matches across all official competitions.
- Real Sociedad have been outshot by their opponents in 9 of their last 10 away La Liga matches.
Probable Real Sociedad line-up (4-4-2):Álex Remiro, Jon Aramburu, Jon Martín, Mamadou Sarr, Sergio Gómez, Luka Sučić, Jon Gorrotxategi, Carlos Soler, Gonçalo Guedes, Mikel Oyarzabal, Orri Óskarsson.
Absentees:Luken Beitia and Álvaro Odriozola (both doubtful).
Teams' chances
The margin-free estimate gives Athletic Bilbao a 45.1% chance of winning, with average odds of 2.12 and fair odds of 2.22. The draw is rated at 25.9%, with odds of 3.70 and fair odds of 3.87. Real Sociedad have a 29.0% chance of winning, with odds of 3.30 and fair odds of 3.45.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Bilbao to win | 2.12 | 2.22 | 45.1% |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.87 | 25.9% |
| Real Sociedad to win | 3.30 | 3.45 | 29.0% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.70 is favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.15. At the 3.5-goal line, by contrast, the market makes Under 3.5 goals shorter at 1.48, while Over 3.5 goals is available at 2.55.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.15 | 1.70 |
| 3.5 | 1.48 | 2.55 |
Handicap prediction
At the -1.5 handicap line, Athletic Bilbao (-1.5) are available at 3.60 and Real Sociedad (-1.5) at 5.80. For a handicap of +1, the odds are 1.12 on Athletic Bilbao (+1) and 1.35 on Real Sociedad (+1); at +1.5, they are 1.09 and 1.25 respectively. For a -1 handicap, Athletic Bilbao (-1) are available at 2.90 and Real Sociedad (-1) at 5.10. At a handicap of 0, Athletic Bilbao (0) at 1.60 are shorter than Real Sociedad (0) at 2.35.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 3.60 | -1.5 | 5.80 |
| 1.09 | 1.5 | 1.25 |
| 2.90 | -1 | 5.10 |
| 1.12 | 1 | 1.35 |
| 1.60 | 0 | 2.35 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is available at 1.60, while Both teams to score — No, meaning at least one team will fail to score, is at 2.30.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.60 |
| No | 2.30 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
9/25
|
29/100
|
7/10
|
| 888sport |
33/100
|
29/100
|
73/100
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Athletic Bilbao — 1.5 goals; Real Sociedad — 1 goal.
Athletic Bilbao team total goals
For Athletic Bilbao, Over 0.5 goals at 1.15 is markedly shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 4.50. At the 1-goal line, Over 1 goal is at 1.30 against 3.15 for Under 1 goal. The 1.5-goal options are almost evenly matched: Under 1.5 goals at 1.82 and Over 1.5 goals at 1.93. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 goals at 1.40 is favoured over Over 2 goals at 2.75.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.50 | 0.5 | 1.15 |
| 3.15 | 1 | 1.30 |
| 1.82 | 1.5 | 1.93 |
| 1.40 | 2 | 2.75 |
Real Sociedad team total goals
For Real Sociedad, Over 0.5 goals at 1.30 is shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 3.20. At the 1-goal line, Over 1 goal is available at 1.62 and Under 1 goal at 2.25. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 goals at 1.55 is shorter than Over 1.5 goals at 2.40.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.20 | 0.5 | 1.30 |
| 2.25 | 1 | 1.62 |
| 1.55 | 1.5 | 2.40 |
