Odds overview
Barcelona to win is the favourite at 1.82, while Atlético Madrid to win is around 3.70 and the draw is 4.40. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.32 is much shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 3.10. For handicaps, Barcelona (+1.5) at 1.09 is shorter than Atlético Madrid (+1.5) at 1.45.
Why Barcelona are favourites
Bookmakers make Barcelona the favourites: an away win is available at 1.82, an Atlético Madrid win at 3.70 and a draw at 4.40.
- Barcelona are unbeaten in 9 of their last 10 La Liga matches.
- Atlético Madrid have also proved hard to beat in the competition, avoiding defeat in 9 of their last 10 La Liga matches. They come into this game, however, after a 0:2 Champions League defeat to Bayern Munich.
- Barcelona have lost to Atlético Madrid just twice in their last nine meetings.
Form and Line-up Atlético Madrid
On 3 November, Atlético Madrid lost 0:2 at home to Bayern Munich in the UEFA Champions League, although they had previously beaten Levante 2:0 and Deportivo La Coruña 1:0 in La Liga.
- Atlético Madrid are unbeaten in 9 of their last 10 matches across all official competitions.
- Atlético Madrid's opponents have scored fewer than 2.5 goals in each of their last 10 matches across all official competitions.
Probable line-up (4-4-2): Jan Oblak, Marcos Llorente, Marc Pubill, David Hancko, Álex Grimaldo, Giuliano Simeone, Koke, Morten Hjulmand, Álex Baena, Lee Kang-in, Julián Alvarez.
Absentees: Cristian Romero, Pablo Barrios (both injured).
Form and Line-up Barcelona
On 3 November, Barcelona beat Aston Villa 3:0 at home in the UEFA Champions League. The Catalans also enjoyed success in La Liga, beating Deportivo Alavés 6:1 in the previous round. Hansi Flick's side bounced back from their 1:2 defeat to Real Madrid in El Clásico.
- Barcelona are unbeaten in 8 of their last 10 matches across all official competitions.
- Barcelona have had more than 5.5 shots on target in 9 of their last 10 matches across all official competitions.
Probable line-up (4-3-3): Joan García, Brian Fariñas, Pau Cubarsí, Frenkie de Jong, João Cancelo, Fermín López, Marc Bernal, Pedri, Lamine Yamal, Raphinha, Karim Adeyemi.
Absentees: Dani Olmo, Rodri, Xavi Espart, Roony Bardghji, Jules Koundé (all injured).
The teams' chances
The margin-free estimate gives Atlético Madrid a 25.8% chance of winning, with fair odds of 3.87 against average odds of 3.70. The draw has a 21.7% chance, with fair odds of 4.61 against an average of 4.40. A Barcelona win is the most likely outcome at 52.5%, with fair odds of 1.91 against average odds of 1.82.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid win | 3.70 | 3.87 | 25.8% |
| Draw | 4.40 | 4.61 | 21.7% |
| Barcelona win | 1.82 | 1.91 | 52.5% |
Total goals betting analysis
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.32 is a considerably stronger favourite than Under 2.5 goals at 3.10. The odds are closer at 3.5 goals: Over 3.5 goals is offered at 1.80 and Under 3.5 goals at 2.00.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 3.10 | 1.32 |
| 3.5 | 2.00 | 1.80 |
Handicap betting analysis
Atlético Madrid (-1.5) at 5.70 has considerably longer odds than Barcelona (-1.5) at 2.65. At the 1.5-goal handicap line, Barcelona (+1.5) at 1.09 is shorter than Atlético Madrid (+1.5) at 1.45; at the 1-goal line, the respective odds are 1.11 and 1.65. For a handicap of 0, Barcelona Draw No Bet (0) at 1.40 is favoured over Atlético Madrid Draw No Bet (0) at 2.70.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 5.70 | -1.5 | 2.65 |
| 1.45 | 1.5 | 1.09 |
| 5.10 | -1 | 2.25 |
| 1.65 | 1 | 1.11 |
| 2.70 | 0 | 1.40 |
Both teams to score betting analysis
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.33 is considered much more likely than Both teams to score — No at 3.00, which covers a result where at least one team fails to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.33 |
| No | 3.00 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
19/20
|
1/5
|
1/4
|
| LeoVegas |
23/25
|
11/50
|
27/100
|
| 888sport |
91/100
|
11/50
|
29/100
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals betting analysis
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team goal totals: Atlético Madrid — 1.5 goals, Barcelona — 2 goals.
Atlético Madrid team total goals
For Atlético Madrid, Over 0.5 goals at 1.20 is much shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 3.95. At the 1-goal line, Over 1 goal at 1.47 is shorter than Under 1 goal at 2.60, but at 1.5 goals the balance shifts: Under 1.5 goals at 1.67 is favoured over Over 1.5 goals at 2.15. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 goals at 1.27 is considerably shorter than Over 2 goals at 3.45.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.95 | 0.5 | 1.20 |
| 2.60 | 1 | 1.47 |
| 1.67 | 1.5 | 2.15 |
| 1.27 | 2 | 3.45 |
Barcelona team total goals
For Barcelona, Over 0.5 goals at 1.05 is much shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 7.00. At the 1.5-goal line, Over 1.5 goals at 1.50 is favoured over Under 1.5 goals at 2.55. The odds are close at 2 goals: Over 2 goals is 1.78 against 1.97 for Under 2 goals; at the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 goals at 1.58 is shorter than Over 2.5 goals at 2.30.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 7.00 | 0.5 | 1.05 |
| 2.55 | 1.5 | 1.50 |
| 1.97 | 2 | 1.78 |
| 1.58 | 2.5 | 2.30 |
