Odds overview
Atlético Madrid to win at 1.28 is the clear favourite, while the draw is available at 5.80 and Deportivo A Coruña to win at 10.50. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.58 is favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.40. In the handicap market, Atlético Madrid (-1.5) at 1.77 is considered more likely than Deportivo A Coruña (1.5) at 2.05.
Why Atlético Madrid are favourites
Bookmakers make the hosts clear favourites: Atlético Madrid to win is available at 1.28, the draw at 5.80 and Deportivo A Coruña to win at 10.50.
- The hosts are firmly among the league leaders: after nine rounds, Atlético Madrid are second with 22 points and a goal difference of 19:8.
- The visitors are struggling to create chances: Deportivo A Coruña average just three shots on target per match, the third-lowest figure in La Liga.
- Atlético Madrid are unbeaten in 14 consecutive meetings with Deportivo A Coruña.
Form and Line-up Atlético Madrid
Atlético Madrid come into this match after a 1:1 away draw with Stuttgart in the UEFA Champions League: they played with ten men from the 64th minute, and Alvarez scored their only goal. Before that, they beat Espanyol Barcelona 1:0 away in La Liga and Manchester United 2:0 at home.
- Atlético Madrid's opponents have committed fewer than 13.5 fouls in each of their last 10 La Liga home matches.
- Seven of Atlético Madrid's nine La Liga matches this season have featured fewer than 3.5 goals.
- Atlético Madrid have taken more than 11.5 shots in eight of their last 10 La Liga home matches.
Probable line-up (4-4-2): Jan Oblak, Marc Pubill, David Hancko, Robin Le Normand, Daniel Martínez, Giuliano Simeone, Pablo Barrios, Morten Hjulmand, Ademola Lookman, Jonathan David, Lee Kang-in.
Absentees: Koke, Cristian Romero (both injured).
Form and Line-up Deportivo A Coruña
The club from A Coruña are going through a difficult spell in the league. In the previous round, Deportivo A Coruña drew 1:1 at home to Levante, surrendering their lead in the 82nd minute after Bil Nsongo had scored in the 63rd. Before that, they lost to Real Sociedad (2:3) and drew with Real Betis (1:1).
- Six of Deportivo A Coruña's nine La Liga matches this season have featured fewer than 2.5 goals.
- More than 8.5 corners have been taken in eight of Deportivo A Coruña's last 10 La Liga away matches.
- Deportivo A Coruña's opponents have been caught offside fewer than 2.5 times in nine of their last 10 La Liga away matches.
Probable line-up (4-4-2): Leo Román, Ximo Navarro, Juan Manuel Jiménez, Miguel Loureiro, Giacomo Quagliata, Luismi Cruz, Diego Villares, Mario Soriano, Riki Rodríguez, Jonathan Asp Jensen, Bil Nsongo.
Absentees: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Marc Casadó, Zakaria Eddahchouri, Noé Carrillo, Bright Ede (all injured), Yeremay Hernández (doubtful).
The teams' chances
Atlético Madrid to win is quoted at 1.28, with fair odds of 1.34 and a probability of 74.5%. The draw is available at 5.80, with fair odds of 6.08 and a probability of 16.4%; Deportivo A Coruña to win is quoted at 10.50, with fair odds of 11.01 and a probability of 9.1%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Madrid to win | 1.28 | 1.34 | 74.5% |
| Draw | 5.80 | 6.08 | 16.4% |
| Deportivo A Coruña to win | 10.50 | 11.01 | 9.1% |
Total goals market
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.58 is offered at much shorter odds than Under 2.5 goals at 2.40. At the 3.5-goal line, by contrast, Under 3.5 goals at 1.57 is favoured over Over 3.5 goals at 2.35.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.40 | 1.58 |
| 3.5 | 1.57 | 2.35 |
Handicap market
Atlético Madrid (-1.5) at 1.77 is available at shorter odds than Deportivo A Coruña (1.5) at 2.05. Similarly, Atlético Madrid (-1) at 1.38 is considerably shorter than Deportivo A Coruña (1) at 2.85, while at the zero-handicap line Atlético Madrid (0) at 1.06 is much shorter than Deportivo A Coruña (0) at 6.80.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.77 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 2.05 | |
| 1.38 | -1 | |
| 1 | 2.85 | |
| 1.06 | 0 | 6.80 |
Both teams to score market
Both teams to score — No at 1.72 is available at shorter odds than Both teams to score — Yes at 2.05, meaning the market considers it slightly more likely that at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 2.05 |
| No | 1.72 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
1/20
|
7/50
|
11/4
|
| 888sport |
3/50
|
7/50
|
5/2
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals markets
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Atlético Madrid — 2.5 goals; Deportivo A Coruña — 0.5 goals.
Atlético Madrid team goals
For Atlético Madrid's team goals, Over 2 at 1.60 is available at shorter odds than Under 2 at 2.25. At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 at 1.70 is favoured over Over 2.5 at 2.10, while at the 3-goal line, Under 3 at 1.37 is considerably shorter than Over 3 at 2.85.
| Under | Team goals total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.25 | 2 | 1.60 |
| 1.70 | 2.5 | 2.10 |
| 1.37 | 3 | 2.85 |
Deportivo A Coruña team goals
For Deportivo A Coruña's team goals, Under 0.5 at 1.75 is available at shorter odds than Over 0.5 at 2.00. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 at 1.23 is strongly favoured over Over 1 at 3.75, while at the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 at 1.11 is much shorter than Over 1.5 at 5.30.
| Under | Team goals total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 1.75 | 0.5 | 2.00 |
| 1.23 | 1 | 3.75 |
| 1.11 | 1.5 | 5.30 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Jose Maria Sanchez (Spain)
Matches — 18 (La Liga, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 28;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.3;
Matches with a red card — 4 of 18;
Matches with a penalty — 5 of 18.
