Odds overview
Paris to win at 1.76 are clear favourites over Auxerre to win at 4.30 and the draw at 3.95. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.68, while Under 2.5 is 2.09. In the zero-handicap market, Paris (0) at 1.45 are strongly favoured over Auxerre (0) at 2.57.
Why Paris are favourites
Bookmakers make Paris favourites: the visitors are 1.76 to win, the draw is 3.95 and an Auxerre victory is available at 4.30.
- Paris have been picking up points consistently in the league: they have avoided defeat in 8 of their last 10 Ligue 1 matches.
- Auxerre have regularly struggled to win: they have failed to win 6 of their last 10 Ligue 1 matches.
Form and Line-up Auxerre
In the previous round, on 1 November, Auxerre suffered a heavy 1:5 away defeat to Strasbourg. Before that, they drew 1:1 at home with Le Mans on 25 October. Their Ligue 1 scoring run continues, however: they have scored in each of their last 10 matches in the competition.
At home, though, Auxerre have been more solid defensively: their opponents have scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 home Ligue 1 matches.
- Auxerre's opponents have scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 home Ligue 1 matches.
- Auxerre have registered more than 3.5 shots on target in 8 of their last 10 home Ligue 1 matches.
- Auxerre have scored at least once in all 10 of their last 10 matches across all official competitions.
Probable line-up: Paul Nardi, Christ Makosso, Axel Tuanzebe, Clement Akpa, Lamine Sy, Naouirou Ahamada, Kevin Danois, Fredrik Oppegard, Romain Faivre, Danny Namaso, Cameron Archer
For the hosts, Assane Diousse, Sekou Fofana and Remy Labeau-Lascary miss the match through injury, while Lamfia Dioubate is suspended following a red card.
Form and Line-up Paris
Paris beat Monaco convincingly 3:1 at home on 1 November, bouncing back from a 1:2 away defeat to Lens on 24 October. The capital club have lost only twice in their last 10 competitive matches.
Paris often allow their opponents to win corners in away Ligue 1 matches: their opponents have taken more than 4.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 away games.
- Paris have avoided defeat in 8 of their last 10 matches across all official competitions.
- Paris's opponents have taken more than 4.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 away Ligue 1 matches.
- Paris's opponents have scored fewer than 4.0 goals in all 10 of their last 10 Ligue 1 matches.
Probable line-up: Kevin Trapp, Hamari Traore, Samir Chergui, Diego Coppola, Otavio, Maxime Lopez, Pierre Lees-Melou, Ilan Kebbal, Pablo Pagis, Moses Simon, Lassine Sinayoko
For the visitors, Jonathan Ikone and Nhoa Sangui miss the match with thigh injuries.
The teams' chances
The average odds for Auxerre to win, the draw and Paris to win are 4.30, 3.95 and 1.76 respectively. The fair odds and corresponding probabilities are 4.53 and 22.1% for an Auxerre win, 4.16 and 24.0% for the draw, and 1.85 and 53.9% for a Paris win.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auxerre win | 4.30 | 4.53 | 22.1% |
| Draw | 3.95 | 4.16 | 24.0% |
| Paris win | 1.76 | 1.85 | 53.9% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 is favoured at 1.68 over Under 2.5 at 2.09. At the 2-goal line, Over 2 is 1.31 and Under 2 is 3.15; at the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 is 1.43 against 2.63 for Over 3.5.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.09 | 1.68 |
| 2 | 3.15 | 1.31 |
| 3.5 | 1.43 | 2.63 |
Handicap prediction
In the handicap market, Auxerre (1) at 1.57 have shorter odds than Paris (1) at 2.28. For the zero handicap, Paris (0) have the edge at 1.45 against 2.57 for Auxerre (0).
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.57 | 1 | 2.28 |
| 2.57 | 0 | 1.45 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
1/1
|
11/50
|
1/5
|
| 888sport |
91/100
|
1/4
|
1/4
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal lines for this match: Auxerre — 1 goal; Paris — 1.5 goals.
Auxerre team total goals
For Auxerre, Over 0.5 goals is available at 1.42 against 2.67 for Under 0.5. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 is offered at 1.85 and Over 1 at 1.90, alongside Under 1 at 4.00 and Over 1 at 1.22.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.67 | 0.5 | 1.42 |
| 1.85 | 1 | 1.90 |
| 4.00 | 1 | 1.22 |
Paris team total goals
For Paris, Over 0.5 goals at 1.14 is strongly favoured over Under 0.5 at 4.65. At the 1.5-goal line, Over 1.5 is available at 1.71 against 2.05 for Under 1.5, while at the 2-goal line Under 2 has shorter odds at 1.55 against 2.35 for Over 2.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.65 | 0.5 | 1.14 |
| 2.05 | 1.5 | 1.71 |
| 1.55 | 2 | 2.35 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Marc Bollengier (France)
Matches — 19 (Ligue 1, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 26;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.8;
Matches with a red card — 5 of 19;
Matches with a penalty — 8 of 19.
