Azerbaijan vs Lithuania: prediction & betting odds 4 October 2026

Betting tip

UEFA Nations League matches between teams of this level rarely turn into open shootouts. When both national sides struggle to build attacks in possession, goals naturally become scarce, while the 2-goal totals line offers a refund if a couple of goals go in by chance.

Azerbaijan very rarely score more than one goal at home — they have done so just twice in their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches. Their recent meeting with Liechtenstein ended 0:0, after which Aykhan Abbasov explicitly highlighted the team's slow tempo and poor finishing. The national side should have won that game: they recorded 2.48 xG and 25 shots. Unsurprisingly, 9 of their last 10 matches across all competitions stayed under 3.5 goals.

Lithuania adopt a similarly cagey approach: 8 of their last 10 matches across all competitions produced no more than two goals. They stick to cautious football away from home in the UEFA Nations League — 9 of their last 10 matches featured no more than three goals in total.

The main risk to a low goals total is a 1:1 or 2:0 scoreline: over 1.5 goals landed in 8 of 10 matches for both national sides across all competitions. That makes backing a very low total too risky, whereas a line that offers a refund at two goals allows for a typical exchange of chances.

A slow, cagey match looks likely, so my final prediction is under 2 goals.