Odds overview
Barcelona are clear favourites: a home win is available at around 1.65, compared with 3.80 for an away win and 5.80 for a draw. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.17 is considerably shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 4.15. For the handicaps, Barcelona (-1.5) at 2.35 is considered substantially more likely than Real Madrid (-1.5) at 5.60.
Why Barcelona are favourites
Bookmakers make Barcelona favourites: a home win is available at 1.65, a draw at 5.80 and a Real Madrid win at 3.80.
- Barcelona lead the league for goals scored, averaging 4.33 per match, while Real Madrid concede exactly one goal per game on average.
- Barcelona have yet to drop a point in La Liga — they have won 9 matches in a row.
- Barcelona have lost to Real Madrid just once in their previous seven meetings.
Form and Line-up Barcelona
In Matchday 9 of La Liga, Barcelona thrashed Real Betis Balompié 5:2 away from home, playing with an extra man for almost a half. In the UEFA Champions League, they lost 2:4 to Paris Saint-Germain after conceding a potential draw in the closing minutes. Barcelona have nevertheless won all nine of their La Liga matches, with an aggregate score of 39:9.
- Barcelona have won each of their last 10 La Liga home matches.
- Barcelona's matches have gone Over 2.5 goals in 10 consecutive games.
- The total number of shots on target exceeded 7.5 in 9 of Barcelona's last 10 La Liga home matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Joan García, Xavi Espart, Pau Cubarsí, Gerard Martín, João Cancelo, Rodri, Pedri, Lamine Yamal, Fermín López, Anthony Gordon, Raphinha.
Absentees: Roony Bardghji, Eric García and Dani Olmo (all injured); Andreas Christensen and Jules Koundé (both doubtful).
Form and Line-up Real Madrid
Real Madrid come into this match after emphatic 4:1 home wins over Sevilla and RB Leipzig. They are creating plenty of chances and rank second in the league for xG (2.47). Real Madrid have lost only twice in La Liga and won every other match, scoring 23 goals and conceding 9.
- Real Madrid have won 4 matches in a row.
- Both teams scored in 7 of Real Madrid's last 8 matches.
- Real Madrid scored first in 6 of their previous 8 matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Thibaut Courtois, Denzel Dumfries, Dean Huijsen, Ibrahima Konaté, Marc Cucurella, Federico Valverde, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Arda Güler, Jude Bellingham, Yan Diomande, Kylian Mbappé.
Absentees: Vinicius Junior (suspended), Raul Asencio and Rodrygo (both injured), Ferland Mendy (doubtful).
The teams' chances
A Barcelona win is available at 1.65, with fair odds of 1.72 and a probability of 58.2%. A draw is offered at 5.80, with fair odds of 6.04 and a probability of 16.6%; the corresponding figures for a Real Madrid win are 3.80, 3.96 and 25.3%.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona win | 1.65 | 1.72 | 58.2% |
| Draw | 5.80 | 6.04 | 16.6% |
| Real Madrid win | 3.80 | 3.96 | 25.3% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.17 is considerably shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 4.15. The Over also has the edge at the 3.5-goal line, with Over 3.5 goals at 1.50 against Under 3.5 goals at 2.50.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 4.15 | 1.17 |
| 3.5 | 2.50 | 1.50 |
Handicap prediction
Barcelona (-1.5) are available at 2.35 and Real Madrid (-1.5) at 5.60. At the 1.5-goal line, Barcelona (+1.5) are offered at 1.09 compared with 1.57 for Real Madrid (+1.5). Barcelona (-1) at 1.92 are shorter than Real Madrid (-1) at 5.00, while at the 1-goal line Barcelona (+1) at 1.12 are shorter than Real Madrid (+1) at 1.88. For the zero handicap, Barcelona (0) are available at 1.35 and Real Madrid (0) at 2.95.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.35 | -1.5 | 5.60 |
| 1.09 | 1.5 | 1.57 |
| 1.92 | -1 | 5.00 |
| 1.12 | 1 | 1.88 |
| 1.35 | 0 | 2.95 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.25 is considered much more likely than Both teams to score — No at 3.55, the latter covering a match in which at least one team fails to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.25 |
| No | 3.55 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
11/50
|
7/50
|
5/4
|
| 888sport |
11/50
|
17/100
|
5/4
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Barcelona — 2.5 goals; Real Madrid — 1.5 goals.
Barcelona team total goals
For Barcelona's team total, Over 2 goals is available at 1.48 compared with 2.55 for Under 2 goals. At the 2.5-goal line, the odds are almost equal: Under 2.5 goals is 1.82 and Over 2.5 goals is 1.92. At the 3-goal line, Under 3 goals at 1.50 is favoured over Over 3 goals at 2.55.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.55 | 2 | 1.48 |
| 1.82 | 2.5 | 1.92 |
| 1.50 | 3 | 2.55 |
Real Madrid team total goals
For Real Madrid's team total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.16 is much shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 4.40; Over 1 goal is available at 1.38 compared with 2.80 for Under 1 goal. At the 1.5-goal line, the odds are almost equal — Under 1.5 goals at 1.85 and Over 1.5 goals at 1.90. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 goals at 1.40 is favoured over Over 2 goals at 2.75.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.40 | 0.5 | 1.16 |
| 2.80 | 1 | 1.38 |
| 1.85 | 1.5 | 1.90 |
| 1.40 | 2 | 2.75 |
