Odds overview
Bayer Leverkusen to win is available at around 1.73, while the draw and a Freiburg win are quoted at 4.30 and 4.20. In the main goals market, Over 2.5 at 1.50 is a much stronger favourite than Under 2.5 at 2.50. For the handicaps, Bayer Leverkusen (-1.5) at 2.65 are at substantially shorter odds than Freiburg (-1.5) at 7.10.
Why Bayer Leverkusen are favourites
The bookmakers favour Bayer Leverkusen: the hosts are available at 1.73 to win, compared with 4.20 for Freiburg and 4.30 for the draw.
- Bayer Leverkusen have taken 10 points from a possible 12 since losing their opening match, building strong momentum in the league.
- Freiburg lead the table after a record start of 13 points from five matches, but playing away to one of the season's main favourites helps explain why the odds favour Bayer Leverkusen.
Form and Line-up Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen have clearly demonstrated their attacking potential in recent Bundesliga matches. They beat RB Leipzig 2:0 at the BayArena, then won a high-scoring away game against Mainz 05 (4:3), conceding twice in the first half but scoring four goals through four different players.
A return of 2.8 goals per game put Bayer Leverkusen third in the league for goals scored ahead of Matchday 6.
- At least one first-half goal has been scored in all 5 of Bayer Leverkusen's Bundesliga matches this season.
- Bayer Leverkusen have had more shots on target than their opponents in their last 10 Bundesliga home matches.
- Bayer Leverkusen have avoided defeat in 9 of their last 10 Bundesliga home matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Mark Flekken, Jarell Quansah, Edmond Tapsoba, Facundo Medina, Miguel Gutiérrez, Aleix García, Ezequiel Fernández, Moussa Diaby, Ibrahim Maza, Malik Tillman, Patrick Schick
Form and Line-up Freiburg
The visitors arrive on a strong run of results. Freiburg drew 2:2 with Eintracht Frankfurt and then beat Schalke 04 2:1: despite Yuito Suzuki being sent off in the 64th minute, they claimed all three points thanks to an 85th-minute goal from Keisuke Goto and recorded 1.60 xG.
Their defensive organisation also merits attention: Freiburg concede 0.8 goals per game, the joint-best defensive record in the league.
- At least one first-half goal has been scored in all 5 of Freiburg's Bundesliga matches this season.
- Freiburg have been caught offside no more than twice in 9 of their last 10 Bundesliga away matches.
- Fewer than 5.5 goals have been scored in all 5 of Freiburg's matches this season.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Mio Backhaus, Philipp Treu, Matthias Ginter, Philipp Lienhart, Jordy Makengo, Maximilian Eggestein, Yannik Engelhardt, Niklas Beste, Lucas Höler, Derry Scherhant, Igor Matanović
The teams' chances
Bayer Leverkusen to win is offered at 1.73, with fair odds of 1.81 and a probability of 55.1%. The draw is available at 4.30 (fair odds of 4.51; 22.2%), while Freiburg to win is 4.20 (4.40; 22.7%).
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen to win | 1.73 | 1.81 | 55.1% |
| Draw | 4.30 | 4.51 | 22.2% |
| Freiburg to win | 4.20 | 4.40 | 22.7% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 is available at 2.50 and Over 2.5 at 1.50. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 is quoted at 1.68 and Over 3.5 at 2.20.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.50 | 1.50 |
| 3.5 | 1.68 | 2.20 |
Handicap prediction
Bayer Leverkusen (-1.5) are available at 2.65 and Freiburg (-1.5) at 7.10. At the 1.5 handicap, Bayer Leverkusen (+1.5) are 1.05 and Freiburg (+1.5) are 1.43; at the -1 line, the respective odds are 2.17 and 6.30. For the 1 handicap, Bayer Leverkusen (+1) are 1.07 and Freiburg (+1) are 1.70; for the zero handicap, Bayer Leverkusen (0) are 1.33 and Freiburg (0) are 3.05.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.65 | -1.5 | 7.10 |
| 1.05 | 1.5 | 1.43 |
| 2.17 | -1 | 6.30 |
| 1.07 | 1 | 1.70 |
| 1.33 | 0 | 3.05 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score – Yes is quoted at 1.50, while Both teams to score – No is 2.50: the latter means at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.50 |
| No | 2.50 |
Double chance forecast
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
The bookmakers have set the following team goal lines for this match: Bayer Leverkusen — 2 goals; Freiburg — 1 goal.
Bayer Leverkusen team goals
Bayer Leverkusen team goals: Under 0.5 is available at 6.40 and Over 0.5 at 1.07; at the 1.5-goal line, the respective odds are 2.35 and 1.55. For the 2-goal line, Under 2 is 1.75 and Over 2 is 2.00; for the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 is 1.42 and Over 2.5 is 2.65.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 6.40 | 0.5 | 1.07 |
| 2.35 | 1.5 | 1.55 |
| 1.75 | 2 | 2.00 |
| 1.42 | 2.5 | 2.65 |
Freiburg team goals
Freiburg team goals: Under 0.5 is quoted at 3.10 and Over 0.5 at 1.32. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 is 2.03 and Over 1 is 1.75; at the 1.5-goal line, the respective odds are 1.47 and 2.60.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.10 | 0.5 | 1.32 |
| 2.03 | 1 | 1.75 |
| 1.47 | 1.5 | 2.60 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Florian Badstübner (Germany)
Matches – 17 (Bundesliga, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match – 22;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 2.3;
Matches with a red card – 1 out of 17;
Matches with a penalty – 2 out of 17.
