Odds overview
Belgium are favourites: a Belgium win is available at 2.15, compared with 3.20 for Italy, while the draw is quoted at 3.70. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.68 is much shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.09. Belgium Draw No Bet (0) is available at 1.58, while Italy Draw No Bet (0) is 2.26.
Why Belgium are favourites
Bookmakers make Belgium the favourites: a win for the hosts is available at 2.15. Italy are quoted at 3.20 to win, while the draw is offered at 3.70.
- Belgium have consistently avoided defeat in competitive matches, going unbeaten in 7 of their last 10.
- Italy have conceded regularly in this tournament: their opponents have scored at least once in all 5 UEFA Nations League matches.
Form and Line-up Belgium
On 12 November, Belgium beat Turkey 2:1. Earlier in the UEFA Nations League, Belgium thrashed the same opponents 3:0, but suffered a heavy 1:4 away defeat to France.
- In Belgium's last 10 competitive matches, the two teams combined for more than 7.5 shots on target.
- In 8 of Belgium's last 10 home matches in the UEFA Nations League, the teams combined for more than 7.5 corners.
Probable Belgium line-up (4-3-3): Senne Lammens, Timothy Castagne, Nathan Ngoy, Brandon Mechele, Maxim De Cuyper, Kevin De Bruyne, Nikolas Raskin, Youri Tielemans, Diego Moreira, Charles De Ketelaere, Jérémy Doku
Form and Line-up Italy
On 12 November, Italy beat France 3:1. Before that, Italy defeated Turkey by the same 3:1 scoreline and drew 1:1 with France.
- In Italy's last 10 competitive matches, the teams combined for more than 5.5 shots on target.
- In 8 of Italy's last 10 competitive matches, the teams combined for more than 7.5 corners.
Probable Italy line-up (4-3-3): Gianluigi Donnarumma, Michael Kayode, Giorgio Scalvini, Alessandro Bastoni, Riccardo Calafiori, Davide Frattesi, Sandro Tonali, Nicolò Barella, Sebastiano Esposito, Francesco Esposito, Nicolò Cambiaghi
The teams' chances
The margin-free estimate gives Belgium a 44.4% chance of winning, with average odds of 2.15 and fair odds of 2.25. The draw has a 25.8% chance, with market odds of 3.70 and fair odds of 3.88. Italy have a 29.8% chance of winning, with average odds of 3.20 and fair odds of 3.35.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium to win | 2.15 | 2.25 | 44.4% |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.88 | 25.8% |
| Italy to win | 3.20 | 3.35 | 29.8% |
Total goals
At a line of 2.5 goals, Under 2.5 is available at 2.09 and Over 2.5 at 1.68. For a total of 2 goals, Under 2 is quoted at 3.20 and Over 2 at 1.30. At 3.5 goals, Under 3.5 is available at 1.44 and Over 3.5 at 2.60.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.09 | 1.68 |
| 2 | 3.20 | 1.30 |
| 3.5 | 1.44 | 2.60 |
Handicap betting
Belgium Draw No Bet (0) is shorter at 1.58 than Italy Draw No Bet (0) at 2.26, making Belgium the favoured side in the zero-handicap market.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.58 | 0 | 2.26 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
9/25
|
1/4
|
7/10
|
| William Hill |
7/20
|
29/100
|
7/10
|
| LeoVegas |
9/25
|
7/25
|
13/20
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goal totals
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Belgium — 1.5 goals; Italy — 1.5 goals.
Belgium team goals
For Belgium, Under 0.5 goals is quoted at 4.15 and Over 0.5 at 1.18. At a line of 1.5 goals, the odds are close: Under 1.5 is 1.81 and Over 1.5 is 1.93. Under 2.5 is available at 1.22, while Over 2.5 is 3.75.
| Under | Team goal total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.15 | 0.5 | 1.18 |
| 1.81 | 1.5 | 1.93 |
| 1.22 | 2.5 | 3.75 |
Italy team goals
For Italy, Under 0.5 goals is available at 3.20 and Over 0.5 at 1.30. At 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 is quoted at 1.51 and Over 1.5 at 2.41. Under 2.5 is offered at 1.12, compared with 5.00 for Over 2.5.
| Under | Team goal total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.20 | 0.5 | 1.30 |
| 1.51 | 1.5 | 2.41 |
| 1.12 | 2.5 | 5.00 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Espen Eskås (Norway)
Matches — 13 (international matches, 2026);
Average fouls per match — 22;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4;
Matches with a red card — 0 of 13;
Matches with a penalty — 6 of 13.
