Odds overview
Benfica are clear favourites: a home win is priced at 1.20, while the draw is 6.10 and an away win 15.00. In the main total market, Over 3.5 at 1.80 looks slightly more likely than Under 3.5 at 1.95. Benfica -1.5 at 1.53 is priced considerably lower than Aarhus +1.5 at 2.35.
Why Benfica are favourites for the match
Bookmakers make Benfica clear favourites: the Portuguese side's win is priced at odds of 1.20, while the draw is 6.10 and an Aarhus win is 15.00.
The Lisbon club have shown strong attacking output across all competitions, with over 3.5 goals landing in 8 of their last 10 matches.
The Danish club regularly encounter defensive problems in European competition, as confirmed by a heavy 0:4 defeat to Sabah.
Form and Line-up Benfica
The Lisbon side made a confident start to Europa League qualifying, beating Hearts 6:1 at home and recording a 1:1 draw in the return leg away. The team also began their domestic competition with a big win, beating Casa Pia 7:0 away.
The team changed head coach in the summer: Marco Silva took over the post on 12 June 2026. In home Europa League games, Benfica are unbeaten in 17 matches in a row, while opponents have had no more than 5 shots on target in 9 of the last 10 games.
Key numbers:
In 9 of their last 10 home Europa League matches, Benfica scored at least two goals.
In 9 of Benfica's last 10 home Europa League matches, at least three goals were scored.
In 10 of Benfica's last 10 home Europa League matches, their opponents attempted fewer than 13.5 shots at goal.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Samuel Soares — Jose Neto — Clement Lenglet — Manu Silva — Amar Dedic — Enzo Barrenechea — Richard Rios — Andreas Schjelderup — Heorhii Sudakov — Dodi Lukebakio — Vangelis Pavlidis.
Form and Line-up Aarhus
Aarhus began their European campaign with a 2:1 home win over Sabah, but were knocked out of Champions League qualifying after a heavy defeat in the return game. The setbacks continued in the domestic league, where the Danes lost 1:2 away to Viborg.
In early August, coach Jacob Poulsen rotated the squad heavily in the game against Lyngby because of workload and minor injuries. In 8 of Aarhus's last 10 matches across all competitions, at least three goals were scored, while over 4.5 goals did not land in 8 of those 10 fixtures.
Key numbers:
In 9 of their last 10 matches across all competitions, Aarhus scored at least one goal.
In 9 of Aarhus's last 10 away matches across all competitions, their opponents scored no more than two goals.
In Aarhus's last 10 matches across all competitions, no more than 3 offsides were recorded.
Probable line-up (3-4-3): Mads Hedenstad — Eric Kahl — Colin Rosler — Jacob Andersen — Magnus Knudsen — Kristian Arnstad — Gift Links — Jens Jonsson — Rasmus Carstensen — James Bogere — Tobias Bech
Kevin Yakob, Luca Callo, Markus Solbakken and Nicolai Poulsen remain doubtful.
Team chances
The estimate gives Benfica a 78.3% chance of winning: average odds for Benfica to win are 1.20, and 1.28 without margin. The probability of a draw is 15.4%, with odds of 6.10 and 6.49 without margin; for Aarhus to win, the figures are 6.3%, 15.00 and 15.96 respectively.
Outcome | Average odds | Average odds without margin | Probability without margin |
Benfica to win | 1.20 | 1.28 | 78.3% |
Draw | 6.10 | 6.49 | 15.4% |
Aarhus to win | 15.00 | 15.96 | 6.3% |
Totals prediction
On the 2.5 line, Over at 1.32 is significantly lower than Under at 3.10. On the 3.5 total, the prices are closer: Over is 1.80 and Under is 1.95.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 3.10 | 1.32 |
3.5 | 1.95 | 1.80 |
Handicap prediction
Handicap 1 (-1.5) is offered at 1.53, while Handicap 2 (+1.5) is 2.35. On the 1-goal line, Handicap 1 (-1) is 1.25 compared with 3.45 on Handicap 2 (+1). With a zero handicap, Handicap 1 (0) is priced at 1.04 and Handicap 2 (0) at 8.50.
Hosts | Handicap | Visitors |
1.53 | -1.5 | — |
— | 1.5 | 2.35 |
1.25 | -1 | — |
— | 1 | 3.45 |
1.04 | 0 | 8.50 |
Both teams to score prediction
The prices on both teams scoring are almost level: Both teams to score - Yes is 1.85, while Both teams to score - No is 1.90. The second option implies that at least one of the teams will not score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.85 |
No | 1.90 |
Double chance prediction
In double chance betting, 12 at 1.11 is priced significantly lower than X2 at 4.30.
1X | 12 | X2 |
— | 1.11 | 4.30 |
Team total prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team totals: Benfica — 3 goals, Aarhus — 0.5 goals.
Benfica team total
Benfica: Over 2.5 at 1.62 is lower than Under 2.5 at 2.15. On the 3 line, Under is 1.68 against 2.05 on Over, while on 3.5 it is 1.43 on Under and 2.65 on Over.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.15 | 2.5 | 1.62 |
1.68 | 3 | 2.05 |
1.43 | 3.5 | 2.65 |
Aarhus team total
Aarhus: on the 0.5 line, Over at 1.80 is priced slightly lower than Under at 1.90. For the 1 line, 1.30 is listed on Under and 3.15 on Over; for 1.5, it is 1.16 on Under and 4.30 on Over.
Under | Team total | Over |
1.90 | 0.5 | 1.80 |
1.30 | 1 | 3.15 |
1.16 | 1.5 | 4.30 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Marco Guida (Italy)
Matches - 1 (all competitions, 2026/27 season)
Average fouls per match - 29
Average yellow cards per match - 8
