Odds overview
Benfica are clear favourites: a home win is available at 1.23, while the draw and a Celtic win are around 6.80 and 11.00. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.43 is considerably shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.63. Benfica (-1.5) at 1.67 is favoured over Celtic (-1.5) at 2.10 in the handicap market.
Why Benfica are favourites
The bookmakers give the Portuguese club a clear advantage: Benfica are 1.23 to win, the draw is 6.80 and a Celtic victory is available at 11.00.
• Benfica made a strong start to the league phase, sitting seventh in the table after a 2:0 win over AC Milan.
• Celtic lost 1:3 at home to Ferencváros in their opening UEFA Europa League match, showing defensive vulnerability against European opposition.
Form and Line-up Benfica
Benfica are in good form: in the Portuguese league, they lost 1:3 away to Portu and beat Vitória Guimarães 2:0 at home. That defeat to the Dragons is the only loss in Marco Silva's side's last 10 matches in all competitions. They won all the others.
In the UEFA Europa League, Benfica have combined solidity with discipline at home: opponents have had fewer than 4.5 shots on target in 9 of their last 10 matches, while the Lisbon side have received no more than two yellow cards in all 10.
- Benfica have avoided defeat in each of their last 10 home matches in the UEFA Europa League.
- Benfica committed fewer than 12.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Europa League home matches.
- The teams took more than 8.5 corners in 8 of Benfica's last 10 UEFA Europa League matches.
Probable Benfica line-up (4-2-3-1): Anatoliy Trubin, Alessandro Circati, Alexander Bah, Samuel Dahl, Tomás Araújo, Joao Palinya, Fredrik Aursnes, Andreas Schjelderup, Georgiy Sudakov, Dodi Lukebakio, Jhon Durán
Unavailable: Enzo Barrenechea (injured)
Form and Line-up Celtic
Celtic's domestic form has been mixed: after losing 0:1 to Rangers, the Glasgow side beat Motherwell 2:0, but Motherwell are not at Benfica's level. Celtic have regularly faced pressure on their goal in European away matches: opponents have had more than 13.5 shots in each of their last 10 UEFA Europa League away games.
- Celtic committed fewer than 11.5 fouls in 8 of their last 10 UEFA Europa League away matches.
- More than 2.5 offsides were recorded in 8 of Celtic's last 10 UEFA Europa League away matches.
- The teams received fewer than 4.5 yellow cards in 9 of Celtic's last 10 UEFA Europa League away matches.
Probable Celtic line-up (4-2-3-1): Viljami Sinisalo, Colby Donovan, Dane Murray, Liam Scales, Kieran Tierney, Callum McGregor, Mika Baur, Camilo Durán, Benjamin Nygren, Sebastian Tounekti, Kasper Høgh
Unavailable: Alistair Johnston, Cameron Carter-Vickers, Yang Hyun-jun (injured)
The teams' chances
Benfica to win: average odds of 1.23, fair odds of 1.29 and a fair probability of 77.4%. The figures for the draw are 6.80, 7.15 and 14.0%; for Celtic to win, they are 11.00, 11.56 and 8.6%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica to win | 1.23 | 1.29 | 77.4% |
| Draw | 6.80 | 7.15 | 14.0% |
| Celtic to win | 11.00 | 11.56 | 8.6% |
Total goals betting
Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.43, compared with 2.63 for Under 2.5 goals. At the 2-goal line, Over is 1.17 and Under is 4.25; at 3.5 goals, Under at 1.69 is shorter than Over at 2.08.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.63 | 1.43 |
| 2 | 4.25 | 1.17 |
| 3.5 | 1.69 | 2.08 |
Handicap betting
Benfica (-1.5) are available at 1.67 and Celtic (-1.5) at 2.10: the market rates the home side's handicap option slightly more highly.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.67 | -1.5 | 2.10 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
1/25
|
2/25
|
4/1
|
| William Hill |
3/100
|
2/25
|
4/1
|
| 888sport |
3/100
|
2/25
|
4/1
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals betting
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Benfica at 2.5 goals and Celtic at 0.5 goals.
Benfica team goals
Benfica team goals: Over 0.5 is 1.04, compared with 7.40 for Under 0.5. At the 2-goal line, Over at 1.50 is shorter than Under at 2.48; at 2.5 goals, the odds are almost equal — 1.85 for Under and 1.89 for Over. At 3 goals, Under is 1.49 and Over is 2.50.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 7.40 | 0.5 | 1.04 |
| 2.48 | 2 | 1.50 |
| 1.85 | 2.5 | 1.89 |
| 1.49 | 3 | 2.50 |
Celtic team goals
Celtic team goals: Over 0.5 is 1.76 and Under 0.5 is 1.99. At the 1.5-goal line, Under at 1.16 is considerably shorter than Over at 4.40; at 2.5 goals, the odds are 1.02 and 8.40 respectively.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 1.99 | 0.5 | 1.76 |
| 1.16 | 1.5 | 4.40 |
| 1.02 | 2.5 | 8.40 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Nikola Dabanović (Montenegro)
Matches — 11 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 26;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4;
Matches with a red card — 0 out of 11;
Matches with a penalty — 1 out of 11.
