Odds overview
Mainz are the 1X2 favourites: the away win is 2.25 compared with 2.95 for the home win, while the draw is available at 3.80. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 at 1.55 is favoured over Under 2.5 at 2.35. Mainz Draw No Bet is 1.68 — notably shorter than Borussia Mönchengladbach Draw No Bet at 2.20.
Why Mainz are favourites for the match
The bookmakers offer odds of 2.25 on a Mainz win, 2.95 on a Borussia Mönchengladbach win and 3.80 on the draw.
- The hosts have suffered heavy defeats in all three opening league rounds, losing to RB Leipzig (0:3), Elversberg (3:4) and Freiburg (0:5).
- The visitors were prolific away to Hamburg, winning 5:0 thanks to goals from Sheraldo Becker, Phillipp Mwene, Phillip Tietz and Ransford Königsdörffer.
Form and Line-up Borussia Mönchengladbach
In the previous round, Borussia lost 0:5 to Freiburg. Tim Kleindienst's dismissal in the 52nd minute, with the score at 0:2, proved decisive, after which the team conceded three more times.
Their defensive problems are also reflected in the league-wide figures: Borussia Mönchengladbach concede an average of 4.0 goals per game — the highest figure in the league's pre-match snapshot.
- No more than 10 corners were taken in 8 of Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 10 home matches
- Borussia Mönchengladbach's opponents were caught offside no more than twice in 10 home matches
- Borussia Mönchengladbach have received at least 4 yellow cards in 9 of their last 10 matches
Probable Borussia Mönchengladbach line-up (4-2-3-1): Moritz Nicolas, Joe Scally, Ko Itakura, Kevin Diks, David Herold, Franck Honorat, Philipp Sander, Kevin Stöger, Robin Hack, Hugo Bolin, Shuto Machino
Form and Line-up Mainz
In their last match, Mainz lost 1:3 at home to Eintracht Frankfurt, replying only through Phillip Tietz's late goal in the 89th minute.
The team's matches remain among the league's lower-scoring affairs: the average total is 3.0 goals, which ranks third from bottom in the Bundesliga's pre-match snapshot.
- No more than 22 fouls were recorded in 9 of Mainz's 10 away matches
- Mainz's opponents were caught offside no more than twice in 9 of 10 away matches
- There were 9 or more corners in 8 of Mainz's last 10 away matches
Probable Mainz line-up (3-1-4-2): Alexander Schwolow, Phillipp Mwene, Fabio Gruber, Stefan Posch, Kacper Potulski, Kaishu Sano, Jae-sung Lee, Nadiem Amiri, Anthony Caci, Sheraldo Becker, Phillip Tietz
Team chances
The fair-odds assessment gives Mainz a 42.5% chance of winning at odds of 2.35, Borussia Mönchengladbach 32.4% at 3.09 and the draw 25.1% at 3.98. Market odds are 2.25 for the away win, 2.95 for the home win and 3.80 for the draw.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach win | 2.95 | 3.09 | 32.4% |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.98 | 25.1% |
| Mainz win | 2.25 | 2.35 | 42.5% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5 line, Over 2.5 at 1.55 is rated considerably more likely than Under 2.5 at 2.35. At the 3.5 line, the relationship is reversed: Under 3.5 is available at 1.60 and Over 3.5 at 2.30.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.35 | 1.55 |
| 3.5 | 1.60 | 2.30 |
Handicap prediction
Borussia Mönchengladbach (-1.5) is available at 5.10, while Mainz (-1.5) is 3.60. At the 1.5 line, Mainz (+1.5) is shorter at 1.12 compared with 1.25 for Borussia Mönchengladbach (+1.5). For the -1 line, odds are 4.40 on Borussia Mönchengladbach (-1) and 3.00 on Mainz (-1); for the +1 line, they are 1.35 on Borussia Mönchengladbach (+1) and 1.16 on Mainz (+1). In the Draw No Bet market, Mainz at 1.68 is shorter than Borussia Mönchengladbach at 2.20.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 5.10 | -1.5 | 3.60 |
| 1.25 | 1.5 | 1.12 |
| 4.40 | -1 | 3.00 |
| 1.35 | 1 | 1.16 |
| 2.20 | 0 | 1.68 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - Yes is available at 1.50, while Both teams to score - No is 2.50; the shorter odds indicate an expectation that both teams will score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.50 |
| No | 2.50 |
Double chance forecast
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: Borussia Mönchengladbach — 1.5 goals; Mainz — 1.5 goals.
Borussia Mönchengladbach team total
Borussia Mönchengladbach team total: Over 0.5 at 1.25 is notably shorter than Under 0.5 at 3.55; at the 1-goal line, Over 1 is 1.55 compared with 2.40 for Under 1. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is favoured at 1.65 versus 2.17 for Over 1.5, while at the 2-goal line Under 2 is 1.25 and Over 2 is 3.50.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.55 | 0.5 | 1.25 |
| 2.40 | 1 | 1.55 |
| 1.65 | 1.5 | 2.17 |
| 1.25 | 2 | 3.50 |
Mainz team total
Mainz team total: Over 0.5 at 1.17 is substantially shorter than Under 0.5 at 4.20; at the 1-goal line, Over 1 is 1.33 compared with 3.05 for Under 1. At the 1.5-goal line, the odds are almost equal: Under 1.5 is 1.88 and Over 1.5 is 1.87. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 is 1.40 and Over 2 is 2.70.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.20 | 0.5 | 1.17 |
| 3.05 | 1 | 1.33 |
| 1.88 | 1.5 | 1.87 |
| 1.40 | 2 | 2.70 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Robert Hartmann (Germany)
Matches — 14 (Bundesliga, 2025/26);
Average fouls per match — 23;
Average yellow cards per match, including second yellows — 3.4;
Matches with red cards — 0 out of 14;
Matches with penalties — 4 out of 14.
