Odds overview
Poland are favourites: a Poland win is available at 2.17, compared with around 3.35 for a Bosnia and Herzegovina win and 3.45 for a draw. Under 2.5 goals is slightly favoured over Over 2.5 goals, at 1.85 against 1.95. At handicap (0), Poland are offered at 1.58, while Bosnia and Herzegovina are 2.35.
Why Poland are favourites
Bookmakers make the visitors favourites: a Poland win is offered at 2.17, a Bosnia and Herzegovina win at 3.35 and a draw at 3.45.
• The standings in Group B4 make this meeting important for both teams, but Poland remain the stronger contenders for the top places.
• Bosnia and Herzegovina have regularly struggled to win, losing or drawing nine of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
Form and Line-up Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bosnia and Herzegovina began their autumn campaign with two contrasting results: a 4:2 away win over Romania was followed by a 1:1 home draw with Sweden. At home, they usually play cautiously — nine of their last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches had under 3.5 goals, and the teams' combined number of shot attempts did not exceed 24.5 in any of those 10 matches.
- Bosnia and Herzegovina scored no more than one goal in nine of their last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.
- Bosnia and Herzegovina had fewer than 3.5 shots on target in nine of their last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.
- Bosnia and Herzegovina had fewer than 13.5 shot attempts in nine of their last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable Bosnia and Herzegovina line-up: Salko Hamzic, Tarik Muharemović, Sead Kolašinac, Nikola Katić, Armin Gigovic, Ivan Bašić, Amar Memić, Kerim Alajbegovic, Ermedin Demirović, Esmir Bajraktarević, Haris Tabakovic
Edin Džeko is unavailable after retiring from international football.
Form and Line-up Poland
Jan Urban's Poland thrashed Romania 6:0, with Robert Lewandowski opening the scoring from the penalty spot in the 24th minute. The emphatic scoreline was largely due to an early red card for Romania, however, while Poland lost their previous away match against Sweden 1:3.
- Poland took fewer than 4.5 corners in nine of their last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
- There were fewer than 9.5 corners in nine of Poland's last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
- There were more than 2.5 offsides in eight of Poland's last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable Poland line-up (4-4-2): Marcin Bulka, Matty Cash, Jan Bednarek, Jakub Kiwior, Przemyslaw Frankowski, Sebastian Szymański, Viktor Novak, Piotr Zielinski, Nicola Zalewski, Karol Świderski, Robert Lewandowski
The teams' chances
A Poland win has a 43.9% probability: the odds are 2.17, with fair odds of 2.28. A Bosnia and Herzegovina win has a 28.5% probability (3.35; fair odds 3.51), while a draw has a 27.6% probability (3.45; fair odds 3.62).
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bosnia and Herzegovina win | 3.35 | 3.51 | 28.5% |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.62 | 27.6% |
| Poland win | 2.17 | 2.28 | 43.9% |
Total goals prediction
Under 2.5 goals is available at 1.85 and Over 2.5 goals at 1.95, giving a slight edge to the lower-scoring outcome. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 at 1.33 is considerably more likely than Over 3.5 at 3.05.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.85 | 1.95 |
| 3.5 | 1.33 | 3.05 |
Handicap prediction
Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) are offered at 6.20 and Poland (-1.5) at 3.70. In the handicap markets, Bosnia and Herzegovina (+1.5) are 1.23 against 1.07 for Poland (+1.5); Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1) are 5.40 against 3.00 for Poland (-1). Bosnia and Herzegovina (+1) are 1.33 and Poland (+1) are 1.10, while Bosnia and Herzegovina (0) and Poland (0) are 2.35 and 1.58 respectively.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 6.20 | -1.5 | 3.70 |
| 1.23 | 1.5 | 1.07 |
| 5.40 | -1 | 3.00 |
| 1.33 | 1 | 1.10 |
| 2.35 | 0 | 1.58 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score – Yes is available at 1.75 and looks more likely than Both teams to score – No at 2.00, which requires at least one team to fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.75 |
| No | 2.00 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
67/100
|
3/10
|
33/100
|
| William Hill |
3/4
|
3/10
|
3/10
|
| 888sport |
57/100
|
33/100
|
33/100
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal lines for this match: Bosnia and Herzegovina at 1 goal and Poland at 1.5 goals.
Bosnia and Herzegovina team goals
For Bosnia and Herzegovina team goals, Under 0.5 is 2.80 and Over 0.5 is 1.38; at the 1-goal line, Under is 1.90 and Over is 1.85. At the 1.5-goal line, Under is 1.38 and Over is 2.80.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.80 | 0.5 | 1.38 |
| 1.90 | 1 | 1.85 |
| 1.38 | 1.5 | 2.80 |
Poland team goals
For Poland team goals, Under 0.5 is offered at 3.95 and Over 0.5 at 1.20; at the 1-goal line, the respective odds are 2.65 and 1.42. Under 1.5 is 1.70 against 2.08 for Over 1.5, while at the 2-goal line Under is 1.28 and Over is 3.35.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.95 | 0.5 | 1.20 |
| 2.65 | 1 | 1.42 |
| 1.70 | 1.5 | 2.08 |
| 1.28 | 2 | 3.35 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Jérémie Pignard (France)
Matches – 8 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match – 22;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 4.8;
Matches with a red card – 0 out of 8;
Matches with a penalty – 3 out of 8.
Martin Zlomislić
Zinedin Smajlović
Nikola Katić
Sead Kolašinac
Amar Memić
Armin Gigović
Ermin Mahmić
Ivan Bašić
Ermedin Demirović
Haris Tabaković
Mladen Jurkas
Arjan Malić
Nail Omerović
Nihad Mujakić
Stjepan Radeljić
Ajdin Hasić
Benjamin Tahirović
Ivan Šunjić
Esmir Bajraktarević
Jovo Lukić
Samed Baždar
Marcin Bułka
Jakub Piotr Kiwior
Matthew Stuart Cash
Mateusz Żukowski
Piotr Zieliński
Przemysław Adam Frankowski
Wiktor Nowak
Karol Świderski
Sławomir Abramowicz
Tymoteusz Puchacz
Kacper Potulski
Przemysław Wiśniewski
Tomasz Karol Kędziora
Kacper Urbański
Bartosz Piotr Slisz
Marcel Reguła
Michał Krzysztof Skóraś
