Odds overview
In the 1X2 market, Bournemouth are slight favourites to win at 2.25, while Aston Villa are available at 3.10 and the draw at 3.60. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.72 is shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.12. Bournemouth Draw No Bet (0) is around 1.65, compared with 2.25 for Aston Villa Draw No Bet (0).
Why there is no clear favourite
Bookmakers give the home side a slight edge: Bournemouth are 2.25 to win, Aston Villa are 3.10, and the draw is available at 3.60.
• The hosts come into this cup tie after beating AC Milan (3:0) in the UEFA Europa League and Manchester United (3:0) in the league.
• The visitors are also in good form, having recently beaten Newcastle United (1:0) and Manchester City (2:1) in the Premier League, and Viking (3:1) in the UEFA Champions League.
Form and Line-up Bournemouth
Bournemouth have been strong at the Vitality Stadium, beating Sunderland (2:0) in the Premier League and then AC Milan (3:0) in the UEFA Europa League. They kept it going away from home, too: Manchester United fell (3:0) at Old Trafford. Add their European win over Sturm Graz (3:0), and Marco Rose's side have recorded four victories without conceding. They also beat Lincoln (4:0) in the previous round of the EFL Cup.
- Bournemouth have matched or bettered their opponents' shots on target in 9 of their last 10 home EFL Cup matches.
- Bournemouth's opponents have taken fewer than 5.5 corners in 8 of their last 10 home EFL Cup matches.
- Bournemouth have had more shots than their opponents in 8 of their last 10 home EFL Cup matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Djordje Petrovic, Adam Smith, James Hill, António Silva, Adrien Truffert, Lewis Cook, Tyler Adams, Justin Kluivert, Ryan, Marcus Tavernier, Evanilson
Absentees: Alex Scott, Alex Toth, Julián Araujo (injuries)
Form and Line-up Aston Villa
Aston Villa come into this match after a landmark 2:1 Premier League win over Manchester City: until the eighth round of fixtures, no one had taken points off City. Unai Emery's reshaped side have hit their stride — it was their seventh win in their last eight matches. That run includes an away victory over Coventry City (3:1) in the previous round of the EFL Cup. In the other match, Villa drew with Brentford (2:2).
- Aston Villa have avoided defeat in 9 of their last 10 away EFL Cup matches.
- Aston Villa's opponents have scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 away EFL Cup matches.
- There have been fewer than 11.5 corners in 9 of Aston Villa's last 10 away EFL Cup matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Zion Suzuki, Matty Cash, Victor Lindelöf, Pau Torres, Ian Maatsen, Boubacar Kamara, Joao Gomes, Alisson, Johan Manzambi, John McGinn, Nicolas Jackson
Absentees: Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Matteo Ruggeri (injuries)
The teams' chances
Bournemouth to win: average odds of 2.25, fair odds of 2.35 and a 42.5% probability. The draw is available at 3.60, with fair odds of 3.76 and a 26.6% probability. Aston Villa to win is available at 3.10; its fair odds are 3.24 and its probability is 30.9%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability excluding margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth to win | 2.25 | 2.35 | 42.5% |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.76 | 26.6% |
| Aston Villa to win | 3.10 | 3.24 | 30.9% |
Total goals betting
At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 goals is available at 2.12 and Over 2.5 goals at 1.72. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 goals is 1.45 and Over 3.5 goals is 2.60.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.12 | 1.72 |
| 3.5 | 1.45 | 2.60 |
Handicap betting
Bournemouth (-1.5) is available at 3.75, compared with 5.70 for Aston Villa (-1.5). At +1.5, Bournemouth (+1.5) are 1.09 and Aston Villa (+1.5) are 1.23. Bournemouth (-1) are offered at 3.10 and Aston Villa (-1) at 4.90; at +1, the respective odds are 1.12 and 1.32. For the zero handicap, Bournemouth (0) are 1.65 and Aston Villa (0) are 2.25.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 3.75 | -1.5 | 5.70 |
| 1.09 | 1.5 | 1.23 |
| 3.10 | -1 | 4.90 |
| 1.12 | 1 | 1.32 |
| 1.65 | 0 | 2.25 |
Both teams to score betting
Both teams to score — Yes is available at 1.58, while Both teams to score — No is 2.30: the latter means that at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.58 |
| No | 2.30 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
9/25
|
29/100
|
31/50
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals betting
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Bournemouth — 1.5 goals; Aston Villa — 1 goal.
Bournemouth team total goals
Bournemouth team total goals: Under 0.5 is 4.30, Over 0.5 is 1.16; Under 1 is 2.95, Over 1 is 1.35. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is available at 1.80 and Over 1.5 at 1.97; at the 2-goal line, Under 2 is 1.35 and Over 2 is 2.90.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.30 | 0.5 | 1.16 |
| 2.95 | 1 | 1.35 |
| 1.80 | 1.5 | 1.97 |
| 1.35 | 2 | 2.90 |
Aston Villa team total goals
Aston Villa team total goals: Under 0.5 is 3.35, Over 0.5 is 1.28; Under 1 is 2.30, Over 1 is 1.58. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is 1.55 and Over 1.5 is 2.35.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.35 | 0.5 | 1.28 |
| 2.30 | 1 | 1.58 |
| 1.55 | 1.5 | 2.35 |
