Odds overview
Bournemouth are favourites in the 1X2 market at 2.12 to win, while the draw is available at 3.45 and a Leeds United win at 3.50. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals is slightly favoured over Under 2.5 goals — 1.88 against 1.92. In the main handicap market, Bournemouth (0) at 1.55 are considerably shorter than Leeds United (0) at 2.50.
Why Bournemouth are favourites
Bookmakers favour Bournemouth: a home win is available at 2.12, the draw at 3.45 and a Leeds United win at 3.50.
- Bournemouth have won their last five matches in all competitions without conceding.
- Leeds United have gone four Premier League rounds without a win.
Form and Line-up Bournemouth
Bournemouth thrashed Aston Villa 3:0 at home in the EFL Cup Round of 16 this Wednesday. Head coach Marco Rose made eight changes to the starting line-up from the previous match against Manchester United (3:0): only António Silva, Lewis Cook and Marcus Tavernier retained their places. The key players should therefore be rested for the match against the Whites.
- Bournemouth have avoided defeat in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- They have scored at least one goal in 9 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Bournemouth have outshot their opponents in 8 of their last 10 Premier League home matches.
Probable Bournemouth line-up (4-2-3-1): Djordje Petrovic, Adam Smith, James Hill, António Silva, Adrien Truffert, Tyler Adams, Lewis Cook, Ryan, Justin Kluivert, Marcus Tavernier, Evanilson
Absentees: Alex Scott, Alex Tóth, Julián Araujo (injured)
Form and Line-up Leeds United
Leeds United drew 0:0 away to Sunderland that Sunday. After the match, head coach Daniel Farke described a difficult week of training: the team had been without several key players (Rodon and Elvedi), while some attacking players returned to training only on the eve of the match. Those players could not manage more than half an hour on the pitch. Despite a four-match winless run, the Yorkshire side remain seventh.
- Leeds United have avoided defeat in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Leeds United's opponents have scored fewer than 2.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Fewer than 3.5 goals have been scored in 9 of Leeds United's last 10 Premier League away matches.
Probable Leeds United line-up (3-4-2-1): James Trafford, James Justin, Jaka Bijol, Tarik Muharemović, Jayden Bogle, Ethan Ampadu, Ao Tanaka, Gabriel Gudmundsson, Harry Wilson, Brenden Aaronson, Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Absentees: Mateo Joseph, Joe Rodon (injured); Nico Elvedi, Daniel James (doubtful)
The teams' chances
The margin-free assessment gives Bournemouth a 45.0% chance of winning, with fair odds of 2.22 against market odds of 2.12. The draw has a 27.7% chance: 3.61 against 3.45. A Leeds United win is rated at 27.3%, with fair odds of 3.67 against market odds of 3.50.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 2.12 | 2.22 | 45.0% |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.61 | 27.7% |
| Leeds United win | 3.50 | 3.67 | 27.3% |
Total goals prediction
In the 2.5-goal market, Under is available at 1.92 and Over at 1.88, giving the Over a slight edge. At 3.5 goals, Under at 1.35 is considerably more likely than Over at 3.00.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.92 | 1.88 |
| 3.5 | 1.35 | 3.00 |
Handicap prediction
For the -1.5 handicap, Bournemouth (-1.5) are available at 3.80 and Leeds United (-1.5) at 6.40. On the +1.5 line, Bournemouth (+1.5) are quoted at 1.07 and Leeds United (+1.5) at 1.22. For the -1 handicap, the odds are 3.05 on Bournemouth (-1) and 5.70 on Leeds United (-1); for +1, they are 1.09 on Bournemouth (+1) and 1.33 on Leeds United (+1). On the zero line, Bournemouth (0) at 1.55 are favoured over Leeds United (0) at 2.50.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 3.80 | -1.5 | 6.40 |
| 1.07 | 1.5 | 1.22 |
| 3.05 | -1 | 5.70 |
| 1.09 | 1 | 1.33 |
| 1.55 | 0 | 2.50 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is available at 1.72 and is favoured over Both teams to score — No at 2.05: the latter means at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.72 |
| No | 2.05 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
3/10
|
3/10
|
7/10
|
| 888sport |
3/10
|
33/100
|
67/100
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Bournemouth — 1.5 goals; Leeds United — 1 goal.
Bournemouth team goal total
For Bournemouth, Under 0.5 goals is quoted at 4.20 and Over 0.5 goals at 1.20. On the 1-goal line, Under is 2.75 against 1.40 for Over; at 1.5 goals, the odds are 1.70 against 2.07, with Under shorter. At 2 goals, Under at 1.30 is considerably more likely than Over at 3.20.
| Under | Team goal total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.20 | 0.5 | 1.20 |
| 2.75 | 1 | 1.40 |
| 1.70 | 1.5 | 2.07 |
| 1.30 | 2 | 3.20 |
Leeds United team goal total
For Leeds United, Under 0.5 goals is available at 2.75 and Over 0.5 goals at 1.40. On the 1-goal line, the odds are almost level: 1.90 for Under and 1.85 for Over. At 1.5 goals, Under at 1.38 is considerably shorter than Over at 2.80.
| Under | Team goal total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.75 | 0.5 | 1.40 |
| 1.90 | 1 | 1.85 |
| 1.38 | 1.5 | 2.80 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Michael Salisbury (England)
Matches — 17 (Premier League, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 22;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4;
Matches with a red card — 0 of 17;
Matches with a penalty — 5 of 17.
