Odds overview
Bournemouth to win at 2.20 looks more appealing than AC Milan to win at 3.10, while the draw is available at 3.65. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.73 is shorter than Under 2.5 at 2.10. Bournemouth Draw No Bet (0) at 1.65 is considerably shorter than AC Milan Draw No Bet (0) at 2.25.
Why Bournemouth are favourites
Bookmakers give the hosts a modest edge: Bournemouth are available at 2.20 to win, compared with 3.10 for AC Milan and 3.65 for the draw.
- The English club have started the competition strongly and, after two league-phase matches in the UEFA Europa League, sit fifth in the table with a maximum six points and a goal difference of 5:1.
- AC Milan have to manage their resources through a demanding schedule of seven matches in 20 days, with this trip to England falling in the middle of that run.
- Bournemouth have lost just once in their last six home matches.
Form and Line-up Bournemouth
Bournemouth are producing excellent results in Europe and domestically. In the UEFA Europa League, they beat Real Sociedad (2:1) and kept a clean sheet against Sturm Graz (3:0), while in the Premier League they overcame Sunderland (2:0) in the latest round.
- Bournemouth’s opponents have scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 9 of the club’s last 10 home matches in all competitions.
- Bournemouth have scored fewer than 2.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Fewer than 10.5 corners have been taken in 7 of Bournemouth’s last 8 matches.
Probable line-up (4-4-2): Djordje Petrovic, Adam Smith, Bafodé Diakité, António Silva, Julio Soler, Marcus Tavernier, Lewis Cook, Tyler Adams, Ben Gannon-Doak, Álvaro Rodríguez, Evanilson.
Absentees: Julián Araujo, Eli Junior Kroupi, Alex Scott (all injured).
Form and Line-up AC Milan
AC Milan are enjoying an impressive run. The Italian giants thrashed Red Bull Salzburg away (4:0) in the UEFA Europa League, drew with Sassuolo (1:1) in Serie A and came from behind to beat Atalanta 3:2 in the latest round. Amorim’s side are now unbeaten in four matches since losing to Benfica (0:2) in the UEFA Europa League.
- AC Milan’s opponents have scored fewer than 2.5 goals in each of the club’s last 10 matches in all competitions.
- AC Milan have taken fewer than 5.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 away matches in the UEFA Europa League.
- AC Milan’s opponents have been caught offside fewer than 1.5 times in 9 of the club’s last 10 away matches in the UEFA Europa League.
Probable line-up (3-4-2-1): Mike Maignan, Fikayo Tomori, Koni De Winter, Strahinja Pavlović, Omari Hutchinson, Ardon Jashari, Adrien Rabiot, Davide Bartesaghi, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Alphadjo Cisse, Francesco Camarda.
Absentees: Alexis Saelemaekers, Matteo Gabbia (both injured), Filippo Terracciano (suspended).
The teams’ chances
Bournemouth to win: average odds of 2.20, fair odds of 2.31 and a fair probability of 43.2%. The corresponding figures are 3.65, 3.84 and 26.1% for the draw, and 3.10, 3.26 and 30.7% for AC Milan to win.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth to win | 2.20 | 2.31 | 43.2% |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.84 | 26.1% |
| AC Milan to win | 3.10 | 3.26 | 30.7% |
Total goals odds
At the 2.5-goal line, Under is available at 2.10 and Over at 1.73. At 3.5 goals, Under at 1.45 is shorter than Over at 2.65.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.10 | 1.73 |
| 3.5 | 1.45 | 2.65 |
Handicap odds
Bournemouth (-1.5) at 3.65 is shorter than AC Milan (-1.5) at 5.60. At 1.5, Bournemouth at 1.09 is shorter than AC Milan at 1.25; at -1, Bournemouth are 3.00 against AC Milan at 4.90; at 1, Bournemouth are 1.13 against AC Milan at 1.35. At handicap (0), Bournemouth at 1.65 are shorter than AC Milan at 2.25.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 3.65 | -1.5 | 5.60 |
| 1.09 | 1.5 | 1.25 |
| 3.00 | -1 | 4.90 |
| 1.13 | 1 | 1.35 |
| 1.65 | 0 | 2.25 |
Both teams to score odds
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.60 looks more likely than Both teams to score — No at 2.30, which means at least one team would fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.60 |
| No | 2.30 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
11/50
|
1/4
|
91/100
|
| William Hill |
11/50
|
1/4
|
19/20
|
| 888sport |
11/50
|
1/4
|
19/20
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals odds
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Bournemouth — 1.5 goals; AC Milan — 1 goal.
Bournemouth team total goals
Bournemouth team total goals: Under 0.5 is available at 4.30 against 1.16 for Over; Under 1 is 2.95 against 1.35 for Over; at 1.5, Under at 1.78 and Over at 1.98 are close in odds; Under 2 at 1.35 is shorter than Over at 2.90.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.30 | 0.5 | 1.16 |
| 2.95 | 1 | 1.35 |
| 1.78 | 1.5 | 1.98 |
| 1.35 | 2 | 2.90 |
AC Milan team total goals
AC Milan team total goals: Under 0.5 is available at 3.30 against 1.28 for Over; Under 1 is 2.25 against 1.60 for Over; Under 1.5 at 1.55 is shorter than Over at 2.40.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.30 | 0.5 | 1.28 |
| 2.25 | 1 | 1.60 |
| 1.55 | 1.5 | 2.40 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Vasilios Fotias (Greece)
Matches — 12 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 24;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.3;
Matches with a red card — 2 of 12;
Matches with a penalty — 4 of 12.
