Odds overview
Bournemouth are clear favourites at 1.17 to win, while the draw and a Sturm Graz win are offered at around 8.00 and 14.00 respectively. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 is slightly favoured over Over 3.5 — 1.84 against 1.90. Bournemouth (-1.5) have markedly shorter odds than Sturm Graz (-1.5): 1.56 against 2.30.
Why Bournemouth are favourites
The bookmakers strongly favour the hosts: Bournemouth are 1.17 to win, the draw is offered at 8.00, and a Sturm Graz win is available at 14.00.
- Bournemouth have been unbeaten at home, avoiding defeat in all of their last 10 home matches across all competitions.
- Sturm Graz regularly drop points away in Europe, losing or drawing 9 of their last 10 away matches in the UEFA Europa League.
Form and Line-up Bournemouth
Ahead of this UEFA Europa League match, Bournemouth have an expected goals figure of 0.77 xG — the third-lowest among the competition's 36 teams.
- Bournemouth have not lost the corner count in 9 of their last 10 home matches across all competitions.
- There have been more than 18.5 fouls in 9 of Bournemouth's last 10 home matches across all competitions.
- There have been fewer than 10.5 corners in 8 of Bournemouth's last 10 matches across all competitions.
Probable Bournemouth line-up (4-2-3-1): Djordje Petrovic, Adam Smith, James Hill, António Silva, Adrien Truffert, Tyler Adams, Ryan Christie, David Brooks, Rayan Simplicio Rocha, Marcus Tavernier, Evanilson
Form and Line-up Sturm Graz
With an xG figure of 0.76, Sturm Graz have the second-lowest figure among the 36 UEFA Europa League teams ahead of this match. Away from home, the Austrians tend to be involved in physical contests, committing more than 10.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 away matches in the competition.
- Sturm Graz have taken fewer than 5.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 away matches in the UEFA Europa League.
- Sturm Graz have had fewer shots on target than their opponents in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Europa League matches.
- There have been more than 22.5 fouls in 9 of Sturm Graz's last 10 away matches in the UEFA Europa League.
Probable Sturm Graz line-up (4-2-3-1): Daniil Khudyakov, Joshua Quarshie, Arjan Malic, Paul-Friedrich Koller, Luis Balbo, Jon Gorenc Stankovic, Luca Weinhandl, Jacob Peter Hödl, Valmir Matoshi, Simon Seidl, Oumar Diakhité
The teams' chances
The fair-odds calculation gives Bournemouth an 81.3% chance of winning, with average odds of 1.17 and fair odds of 1.23. The draw has an 11.9% chance (8.00; 8.41), while a Sturm Graz win has a 6.8% chance (14.00; 14.72).
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth to win | 1.17 | 1.23 | 81.3% |
| Draw | 8.00 | 8.41 | 11.9% |
| Sturm Graz to win | 14.00 | 14.72 | 6.8% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 has much shorter odds than Under 2.5: 1.34 against 2.98. Over 2 goals is favoured even more strongly at 1.12 against 5.00. The 3.5-goal line is the closest: Under 3.5 is 1.84 and Over 3.5 is 1.90.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.98 | 1.34 |
| 2 | 5.00 | 1.12 |
| 3.5 | 1.84 | 1.90 |
Handicap prediction
Bournemouth (-1.5) look the more likely outcome than Sturm Graz (-1.5), at odds of 1.56 against 2.30.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.56 | -1.5 | 2.30 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
3/100
|
1/10
|
9/2
|
| William Hill |
3/100
|
2/25
|
4/1
|
| 888sport |
3/100
|
2/25
|
4/1
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
The bookmakers have set the following team goals lines for this match: Bournemouth — 2.5 goals; Sturm Graz — 0.5 goals.
Bournemouth team goals
For Bournemouth team goals, Over 0.5 is offered at 1.04 against 7.40 for Under 0.5. At the 2-goal line, Over 2 is favoured at 1.34 against 3.00. Over 2.5 is also shorter than Under 2.5 at 1.69 against 2.08, while at the 3-goal line Under 3 becomes the favourite at 1.65 against 2.15.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 7.40 | 0.5 | 1.04 |
| 3.00 | 2 | 1.34 |
| 2.08 | 2.5 | 1.69 |
| 1.65 | 3 | 2.15 |
Sturm Graz team goals
For Sturm Graz team goals, Over 0.5 is slightly favoured over Under 0.5 at 1.81 against 1.93. Under 1.5 is offered at 1.15 and Over 1.5 at 4.55; at the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 is 1.01 against 9.10 for Over 2.5.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 1.93 | 0.5 | 1.81 |
| 1.15 | 1.5 | 4.55 |
| 1.01 | 2.5 | 9.10 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Jérôme Brisard (France)
Matches — 5 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 22;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.2;
Matches with a red card — 1 of 5;
Matches with a penalty — 1 of 5.
