Odds overview
Bournemouth are slight favourites: a home win is available at around 2.05, while the draw and a Sunderland win are both 3.55. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.82 is favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 1.98. Bournemouth Draw No Bet (0) at 1.52 is favoured over Sunderland Draw No Bet (0) at 2.55.
Why Bournemouth are favourites
Bookmakers favour the hosts: a Bournemouth win is offered at 2.05, while a Sunderland win and a draw are both quoted at 3.55.
• Bournemouth consistently put pressure on opponents at home: they have taken more than 12.5 shots in 8 of their last 10 home Premier League matches.
• At the Vitality Stadium, the hosts regularly pick up points, avoiding defeat in 9 of their last 10 Premier League matches there.
• Sunderland have failed to win 7 of their last 10 away Premier League matches.
Form and Line-up Bournemouth
In the sixth round of the Premier League, Bournemouth lost 1:5 away to Chelsea, having previously lost 0:1 at home to Liverpool. They were not expected to take many points against top clubs. Marco Rose's side have, however, impressed in Europe, beating Real Sociedad 2:1 away and Sturm 3:0 at the Vitality Stadium in the UEFA Europa League. Amine Adli and Justin Kluivert have returned to the squad but are only ready to play limited minutes.
- Bournemouth have not lost the corners count in 9 of their last 10 home Premier League matches.
- Opponents have had fewer than 5.5 shots on target in 9 of the last 10 Premier League matches at the Vitality Stadium.
- There have been more than 20.5 fouls in 9 of Bournemouth's last 10 Premier League matches.
- At least one second-half goal has been scored in all six of Bournemouth's Premier League matches this season.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Djordje Petrovic, Adam Smith, António Silva, James Hill, Adrien Truffert, Ryan Christie, Tyler Adams, David Brooks, Evanilson, Marcus Tavernier, Ryan
Unavailable: Alex Scott, Eli Junior Kroupi, Julián Araujo (injured)
Form and Line-up Sunderland
Recent rounds have gone badly for Sunderland: they lost 0:2 at home to Brighton & Hove Albion, having previously lost 3:5 away to Manchester City. Régis Le Bris's side have, however, maintained a 100% record in Europe, beating AZ Alkmaar (1:0) and Torrense (2:1) in the UEFA Europa League.
The combined expected goals (xG) in matches involving the Black Cats stands at 3.57 per game — the third-highest figure in the Premier League.
- Sunderland have taken fewer than 5.5 corners in each of their last 10 away Premier League matches.
- The total number of fouls exceeded 20.5 in 9 of Sunderland's last 10 away Premier League matches.
- Sunderland received more than 1.5 yellow cards in 8 of their last 10 away Premier League matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Robin Roefs, Trai Hume, Nordi Mukiele, Kevin Danso, Reinildo Mandava, Granit Xhaka, Noah Sadiki, Malick Fofana, Enzo Le Fée, Nilson Angulo, Wilson Isidor
Unavailable: Dan Ballard, Romaine Mundle (injured)
The teams' chances
A Bournemouth win is offered at 2.05, with fair odds of 2.15 and a 46.4% probability. The draw and a Sunderland win are both quoted at 3.55, with fair odds of 3.73 and a 26.8% probability for each outcome.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 2.05 | 2.15 | 46.4% |
| Draw | 3.55 | 3.73 | 26.8% |
| Sunderland win | 3.55 | 3.73 | 26.8% |
Total goals betting
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.82 has shorter odds than Under 2.5 goals at 1.98. At 3.5 goals, Under 3.5 goals at 1.37 is strongly favoured over Over 3.5 goals at 2.85.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.98 | 1.82 |
| 3.5 | 1.37 | 2.85 |
Handicap betting
Bournemouth (-1.5) at 3.50 has shorter odds than Sunderland (-1.5) at 6.30. At the 1.5 line, Bournemouth (+1.5) at 1.07 is favoured over Sunderland (+1.5) at 1.25. For the -1 handicap, the odds are 2.80 for Bournemouth (-1) and 5.60 for Sunderland (-1); at the +1 line, they are 1.09 for Bournemouth (+1) and 1.38 for Sunderland (+1). On the zero handicap, Bournemouth (0) at 1.52 has shorter odds than Sunderland (0) at 2.55.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 3.50 | -1.5 | 6.30 |
| 1.07 | 1.5 | 1.25 |
| 2.80 | -1 | 5.60 |
| 1.09 | 1 | 1.38 |
| 1.52 | 0 | 2.55 |
Both teams to score betting
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.70 looks more likely than Both teams to score — No at 2.10, which requires at least one team not to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.70 |
| No | 2.10 |
Double chance forecast
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals betting
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team goal totals: Bournemouth — 1.5 goals; Sunderland — 1 goal.
Bournemouth team total goals
Bournemouth team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.17 has much shorter odds than Under 0.5 goals at 4.15; at the 1-goal line, Over 1 goal at 1.35 is favoured over Under 1 goal at 2.95. At 1.5 goals, the odds are close: Under 1.5 goals is 1.78 and Over 1.5 goals is 1.98. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 goals at 1.35 has shorter odds than Over 2 goals at 2.90.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.15 | 0.5 | 1.17 |
| 2.95 | 1 | 1.35 |
| 1.78 | 1.5 | 1.98 |
| 1.35 | 2 | 2.90 |
Sunderland team total goals
Sunderland team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.40 is favoured over Under 0.5 goals at 2.75. At the 1-goal line, Over 1 goal at 1.80 has slightly shorter odds than Under 1 goal at 1.95, while at 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 goals at 1.42 is favoured over Over 1.5 goals at 2.65.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.75 | 0.5 | 1.40 |
| 1.95 | 1 | 1.80 |
| 1.42 | 1.5 | 2.65 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Craig Pawson (England)
Matches — 24 (Premier League, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 23;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3;
Matches with a red card — 2 of 24;
Matches with a penalty — 6 of 24.
