Odds overview
In the 1X2 market, Brentford to win has a slight edge at 2.35 over Liverpool to win at 2.85, while the draw is 3.65. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.60 is considered considerably more likely than Under 2.5 goals at 2.35. At a handicap of 0, Brentford Draw No Bet is shorter at 1.75 than Liverpool Draw No Bet at 2.10.
Why Brentford are favourites
Bookmakers give the hosts a slight edge: Brentford to win is offered at 2.35, Liverpool to win at 2.85 and the draw at 3.65.
• The hosts create chances consistently: with an xG of 1.97 per game, Brentford rank third in the Premier League for expected goals.
• Liverpool face a tight schedule, with a trip to Austria for a UEFA Champions League match on 14 October leaving them little time to recover.
• After six rounds, unbeaten Brentford sit above Liverpool in the Premier League table.
Form and Line-up Brentford
Brentford have been picking up points consistently in the league and have yet to lose this season. They have taken seven points from a possible nine at home. Their latest success was a 3:0 thrashing of the much wealthier Chelsea. In the last round, Keith Andrews' side earned a 2:2 away draw against UEFA Champions League participants Aston Villa. These results keep them in the UEFA Champions League places.
- Brentford were caught offside no more than twice in 9 of their last 10 Premier League home matches.
- There were fewer than 11 shots on target in 8 of Brentford's last 10 Premier League home matches.
- Brentford's opponents took fewer than six corners in 8 of their last 10 Premier League home matches.
Probable Brentford line-up (4-2-3-1): Caoimhin Kelleher, Michael Kayode, Julian Schuster, Kristoffer Ajer, Malick Diouf, Yegor Yarmolyuk, Vitaly Janelt, Jayden Anthony, Keane Lewis-Potter, Dango Ouattara, Igor Thiago
Unavailable: Antoni Milambo, Kevin Schade (injured); Mikkel Damsgaard (doubtful)
Form and Line-up Liverpool
In their last Premier League away match, Liverpool beat Bournemouth 1:0, but they then suffered a heavy 0:3 home defeat to Manchester City. Ryan Gravenberch's sending-off affected the result — the visitors scored all three goals afterwards. The Dutchman will be unavailable for this match. This week, Andoni Iraola's side beat LASK 6:3 in the second round of the UEFA Champions League. Under the Spanish coach, Liverpool look to move the ball forward quickly and regularly use a high press in a basic 4-2-3-1 formation, but this style of play demands a great deal of energy.
- Liverpool's opponents took no more than four corners in 9 of their last 10 Premier League away matches.
- Liverpool had at least four shots on target in 8 of their last 10 Premier League away matches.
- Liverpool's opponents were caught offside at least twice in 8 of their last 10 Premier League away matches.
Probable Liverpool line-up (4-2-3-1): Alisson, Ronald Araújo, Jérémy Jacquet, Virgil van Dijk, Milos Kerkez, Wataru Endo, Alexis Mac Allister, Víctor Muñoz, Florian Wirtz, Bradley Barcola, Lewis Koumas
Unavailable: Ryan Gravenberch (suspended); Hugo Ekitike, Conor Bradley, Giovanni Leoni (injured); Dominik Szoboszlai, Alexander Isak, Cody Gakpo (doubtful)
Teams' chances
Brentford to win is offered at 2.35; the fair odds are 2.47, implying a 40.5% probability. The draw is 3.65, with fair odds of 3.83 and a 26.1% probability. Liverpool to win is available at 2.85, with fair odds of 2.99 and a 33.4% probability.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford win | 2.35 | 2.47 | 40.5% |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.83 | 26.1% |
| Liverpool win | 2.85 | 2.99 | 33.4% |
Total goals betting
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals is shorter at 1.60 than Under 2.5 goals at 2.35. At 3.5 goals, the order is reversed: Under 3.5 goals is 1.55, while Over 3.5 goals is 2.35.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.35 | 1.60 |
| 3.5 | 1.55 | 2.35 |
Handicap betting
At a -1.5 handicap, Brentford (-1.5) is shorter at 3.90 than Liverpool (-1.5) at 4.60. At +1.5, the odds are close: Brentford (+1.5) is 1.14 and Liverpool (+1.5) is 1.20. At -1, Brentford (-1) is 3.25 against 4.20 for Liverpool (-1); at +1, the respective odds are 1.20 and 1.30. At a handicap of 0, Brentford Draw No Bet is shorter at 1.75 than Liverpool Draw No Bet at 2.10.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 3.90 | -1.5 | 4.60 |
| 1.14 | 1.5 | 1.20 |
| 3.25 | -1 | 4.20 |
| 1.20 | 1 | 1.30 |
| 1.75 | 0 | 2.10 |
Both teams to score betting
Both teams to score – Yes at 1.50 is considered more likely than Both teams to score – No at 2.50, which means at least one team will not score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.50 |
| No | 2.50 |
Double chance forecast
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals betting
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Brentford — 1.5 goals; Liverpool — 1.5 goals.
Brentford team goals
Brentford team goals: at the 0.5-goal line, Over 0.5 is 1.16 against 4.40 for Under 0.5; at 1 goal, the odds are 1.33 against 3.05, respectively. At the 1.5-goal line, the odds are almost equal: Under 1.5 is 1.85 and Over 1.5 is 1.90. At 2 goals, Under 2 is shorter at 1.35 than Over 2 at 2.90.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.40 | 0.5 | 1.16 |
| 3.05 | 1 | 1.33 |
| 1.85 | 1.5 | 1.90 |
| 1.35 | 2 | 2.90 |
Liverpool team goals
Liverpool team goals: Over 0.5 at 1.22 is considerably shorter than Under 0.5 at 3.80, while at the 1-goal line the odds are 1.47 against 2.60, respectively. At 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 is shorter at 1.65 than Over 1.5 at 2.20. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 is 1.25 and Over 2 is 3.55.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.80 | 0.5 | 1.22 |
| 2.60 | 1 | 1.47 |
| 1.65 | 1.5 | 2.20 |
| 1.25 | 2 | 3.55 |
Who Will Referee the Match
John Brooks (England)
Matches — 16 (Premier League, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 20;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.1;
Matches with a red card — 3 of 16;
Matches with a penalty — 7 of 16.
