Odds Overview
Brighton are clear favourites: Brighton to win is priced at 1.15, while the draw is rated at 7.40 and Tromso to win at 15.00. In the main goals total, Over 2.5 goals at 1.35 is clearly preferred to Under 2.5 goals at 2.90. On the handicap, Brighton (-1.5) at 1.42 looks more likely than Tromso (+1.5) at 2.65.
Why Brighton Are Match Favourites
Brighton to win is priced at 1.15, the draw at 7.40 and a Tromso success at 15.00. The arguments for this assessment are:
- Attacking power in their last league match. The team thrashed Aston Villa 4:0 in the first half alone.
- The gulf in class between the opponents. Before their trip to England, Tromso thrashed Ulfstind 5:0 in the Norwegian Cup, but the level of opposition is incomparable.
- Overall scoring output. 8 of Brighton's last 10 matches in all competitions ended with them scoring at least two goals.
Form and Line-up Brighton
The English club finished pre-season brightly, winning three matches in a row. Brighton also made a confident start in the Premier League — 4:0 against Aston Villa in the first half alone. However, in the Conference League play-offs, the English side could not get the better of Tromso (0:0), despite taking 25 shots and creating 1.64 xG.
Key numbers:
- They have kept clean sheets in 4 matches in a row.
- There were under 10 corners in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- There were under 4 yellow cards in 6 of their previous 7 meetings.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Bart Verbruggen — Mats Wieffer, Luka Vuskovic, Olivier Boscagli, Ferdi Kadioglu — Malick Yalcouye, Yasin Ayari — Diego Gomez, Pascal Gross, Ibrahim Osman — Georginio Rutter.
Absentees: Evan Ferguson, Yankuba Minteh, Kaoru Mitoma, Stefanos Tzimas (all injured), Carlos Baleba, Matt O'Riley (both doubtful).
Form and Line-up Tromso
In Europa League qualifying, Tromso lost twice to Hradec (0:1, 1:3), but in Conference League qualifying the Norwegian club came through against CFR Cluj without any problems — wins of 5:0 and 2:1. The first play-off match against Brighton was already tougher — 32% possession, 1 shot on target and dreary zeros on the scoreboard. However, in the Norwegian league, Tromso enjoyed themselves fully by thrashing Ulfstind (5:0).
Key numbers:
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of their previous 7 meetings.
- They scored first in 5 of their last 7 matches.
- There were under 10 corners in 9 of their previous 10 games.
Probable line-up (3-5-2): Jakob Haugaard — Isak Vadebu, Vetle Skjaervik, Mathias Tonnessen — Isak Dahlqvist, David Edvardsson, Ruben Yttergard Jenssen, Lars Olden Larsen, Alexander Warneryd — Troy Nyhammer, Heine Asen Larsen.
Absentees: Leo Cornic (injured), Vetle Skjaervik, Jakob Haugaard (both doubtful).
Team Chances
The no-margin estimate gives Brighton to win an 81.2% chance at odds of 1.23, compared with 1.15 in the market. The draw is rated at 12.6% and 7.93 compared with 7.40, while Tromso to win is 6.2% and 16.07 compared with 15.00.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average odds without margin | No-margin probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton to win | 1.15 | 1.23 | 81.2% |
| Draw | 7.40 | 7.93 | 12.6% |
| Tromso to win | 15.00 | 16.07 | 6.2% |
Goals Total Prediction
On the 2.5 line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.35 is noticeably shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.90. At the 3.5 mark, the prices are almost level: Under 3.5 goals is 1.82 and Over 3.5 goals is 1.92.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.90 | 1.35 |
| 3.5 | 1.82 | 1.92 |
Handicap Prediction
Brighton (-1.5) is offered at 1.42, while Tromso (+1.5) is 2.65: the shorter price is on the hosts' side.
| Hosts | Handicap | Visitors |
|---|---|---|
| 1.42 | -1.5 | — |
| — | 1.5 | 2.65 |
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Both teams to score - No at 1.65 is rated lower than Both teams to score - Yes at 2.15, meaning a scenario in which at least one team does not score is more likely.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 2.15 |
| No | 1.65 |
Double Chance Prediction
Double chance 12 at 1.07 is much shorter than X2 at 5.10; the 1X option is not listed in the table.
| 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|
| — |
7/100
|
41/10
|
Team Total Prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team totals: Brighton — 3 goals, Tromso — 0.5 goals.
Brighton Team Total
Brighton: Over 2.5 goals at 1.60 is priced lower than Under 2.5 goals at 2.20; on the 3 line, Under 3 goals at 1.68 is preferred to Over 3 goals at 2.05; for 3.5, Under 3.5 goals at 1.45 is noticeably lower than Over 3.5 goals at 2.60.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.20 | 2.5 | 1.60 |
| 1.68 | 3 | 2.05 |
| 1.45 | 3.5 | 2.60 |
Tromso Team Total
Tromso: Under 0.5 goals at 1.67 is lower than Over 0.5 goals at 2.07; Under 1 goal at 1.17 is significantly preferred to Over 1 goal at 4.20, while Under 1.5 goals at 1.09 is shorter than Over 1.5 goals at 5.70.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 1.67 | 0.5 | 2.07 |
| 1.17 | 1 | 4.20 |
| 1.09 | 1.5 | 5.70 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Sander van der Eijk (Netherlands)
Matches - 9 (international fixtures, 2025-2026);
Average fouls per match - 24;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) - 3.5;
Matches with red cards - 1 of 9;
Matches with penalties - 4 of 9.
