Odds overview
Bulgaria are the favourites: a home win is available at 1.67, a draw at 3.60 and an Estonia win at 5.90. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals at 1.60 is considered notably more likely than Over 2.5 goals at 2.35. For the handicaps, Bulgaria (-1.5) at 2.80 look less likely than Estonia (+1.5) at 1.40.
Why Bulgaria are favourites
Bookmakers favour the hosts: a Bulgaria win is offered at 1.67, a draw at 3.60 and an Estonia win at 5.90.
- Bulgaria are considered favourites for this match, but lost 1:2 to Luxembourg in the opening round of the UEFA Nations League.
- Estonia began the tournament with a 1:1 away draw against Iceland, containing their opponents' attack.
Form and Line-up Bulgaria
Bulgaria have struggled in attack under Aleksandar Dimitrov. They had fewer than 12.5 shots, including blocked shots, in 8 of their last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.
- Bulgaria scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.
- Fewer than 3.5 goals were scored in 8 of Bulgaria's last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.
- Bulgaria received more than 1.5 yellow cards in 9 of their last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable Bulgaria line-up (4-3-3): Daniel Naumov, Ilia Gruev, Kristian Dimitrov, Emil Tsenov, Zdravko Dimitrov, Georgi Rusev, Asen Chandarov, Teodor Ivanov, Ivan Turitsov, Lukas Petkov, Dimitar Velkovski.
Form and Line-up Estonia
Head coach Jürgen Henn has called up 26 players for the September fixtures. Estonia take a pragmatic approach away from home: their opponents committed fewer than 13.5 fouls in 9 of Estonia's last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
- Under 3.5 goals landed in 9 of Estonia's last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
- Estonia had fewer than 11.5 shots, including blocked shots, in 9 of their last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
- Under 4.5 total yellow cards landed in 8 of Estonia's last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable Estonia line-up: Karl Jakob Hein, Rasmus Peetson, Maksim Paskotsi, Märten Kuusk, Karol Mets, Michael Schjönning-Larsen, Kevor Palumets, Markus Poom, Mattias Käit, Mihkel Ainsalu, Karel Mustmaa.
Rauno Sappinen, Vlasiy Sinyavskiy and Vladislav Kreida have been left out of the squad for health reasons. Rocco Robert Shein has also not joined up with Estonia.
The teams' chances
Bulgaria to win at 1.67 corresponds to a margin-free probability estimate of 57.2% and fair odds of 1.75. The figures for a draw are 3.60, 26.6% and 3.77; for an Estonia win, they are 5.90, 16.2% and 6.17.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria win | 1.67 | 1.75 | 57.2% |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.77 | 26.6% |
| Estonia win | 5.90 | 6.17 | 16.2% |
Total goals prediction
Under 2.5 goals is available at 1.60, compared with 2.35 for Over 2.5 goals. At the 2-goal line, Under is offered at 2.00 and Over at 1.75; at 3.5 goals, Under at 1.16 is much more favoured than Over at 4.30.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.60 | 2.35 |
| 2 | 2.00 | 1.75 |
| 3.5 | 1.16 | 4.30 |
Handicap prediction
Bulgaria (-1.5) are available at 2.80, while Estonia (+1.5) are at 1.40. On the one-goal handicap line, Bulgaria (-1) are at 2.35 and Estonia (+1) at 1.60. With a zero handicap, Bulgaria (0) are available at 1.20, compared with 3.90 for Estonia (0).
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.80 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 1.40 | |
| 2.35 | -1 | |
| 1 | 1.60 | |
| 1.20 | 0 | 3.90 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score – No at 1.60 is favoured over Both teams to score – Yes at 2.30: the market considers it more likely that at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 2.30 |
| No | 1.60 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
17/100
|
9/25
|
83/100
|
| William Hill |
7/50
|
3/10
|
6/5
|
| 888sport |
1/5
|
33/100
|
91/100
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Bulgaria — 1.5 goals; Estonia — 0.5 goals.
Bulgaria team total goals
For Bulgaria's team total, Under 0.5 goals at 4.30 is less favoured than Over 0.5 goals at 1.20; at the 1-goal line, the odds are 2.80 for Under and 1.38 for Over. At 1.5 goals, Under is available at 1.73 and Over at 2.05, while at 2 goals, Under at 1.30 is notably more likely than Over at 3.30.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.30 | 0.5 | 1.20 |
| 2.80 | 1 | 1.38 |
| 1.73 | 1.5 | 2.05 |
| 1.30 | 2 | 3.30 |
Estonia team total goals
For Estonia's team total at 0.5 goals, Under at 1.85 and Over at 1.90 are almost equally favoured. At the 1-goal line, Under at 1.25 is notably more favoured than Over at 3.45; at 1.5 goals, the odds are 1.12 for Under and 4.90 for Over.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 1.85 | 0.5 | 1.90 |
| 1.25 | 1 | 3.45 |
| 1.12 | 1.5 | 4.90 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Goga Kikacheishvili (Georgia)
Matches — 11 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 23;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.4;
Matches with a red card — 1 of 11;
Matches with a penalty — 2 of 11.
Daniel Naumov
Dimitar Velkovski
Ivan Turitsov
Kristian Dimitrov
Stefan Velkov
Borislav Aleksandrov Tsonev
Ilia Gruev
Kristiyan Stoyanov
Lukas Petkov
MarinPetkov
Dimitar Mitov
Andrea Hristov
Emil Tsenov
Hristiyan Petrov
Yoan Stoyanov
Andrian Kraev
Martin Minchev
Petko Panayotov
Kristiyan Balov
Karl Hein
Erko Tõugjas
Karol Mets
Maksim Paskotši
Michael Schjønning-Larsen
Robi Saarma
Markus Poom
Markus Soomets
Mattias Käit
Karel Mustmaa
Karl Andre Vallner
Matvei Igonen
Joonas Tamm
Märten Kuusk
Kevor Palumets
Martin Miller
Mattias Männilaan
