Odds overview
Bulgaria are favourites: a home win is available at 1.67, a draw at 3.60 and an Estonia win at 5.90. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals at 1.60 is considerably more likely than Over 2.5 at 2.35. In the handicap market, Bulgaria (-1.5) at 2.80 look less likely to cover than Estonia (+1.5) at 1.40.
Why Bulgaria are favourites
Bookmakers favour the hosts: Bulgaria are offered at 1.67 to win, the draw at 3.60 and Estonia at 5.90.
- Bulgaria are considered favourites for this match, but lost 1:2 to Luxembourg in the opening round of the UEFA Nations League.
- Estonia began the tournament with a 1:1 away draw against Iceland, containing their opponents' attack.
Form and Line-up Bulgaria
Bulgaria have struggled in attack under Aleksandar Dimitrov. In 8 of their last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches, they had fewer than 12.5 shots, including blocked efforts.
- Bulgaria scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.
- Fewer than 3.5 goals were scored in 8 of Bulgaria's last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.
- Bulgaria received more than 1.5 yellow cards in 9 of their last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable Bulgaria line-up (4-3-3): Daniel Naumov, Ilia Gruev, Kristian Dimitrov, Emil Tsenov, Zdravko Dimitrov, Georgi Rusev, Asen Chandarov, Teodor Ivanov, Ivan Turitsov, Lukas Petkov, Dimitar Velkovski.
Form and Line-up Estonia
Head coach Jürgen Henn has called up 26 players for the September fixtures. Estonia take a pragmatic approach away from home: their opponents committed fewer than 13.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
- Under 3.5 goals was a winning bet in 9 of Estonia's last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
- Estonia had fewer than 11.5 shots, including blocked efforts, in 9 of their last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
- Under 4.5 total yellow cards was a winning bet in 8 of Estonia's last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable Estonia line-up: Karl Jakob Hein, Rasmus Peetson, Maksim Paskotsi, Märten Kuusk, Karol Mets, Michael Schjonning-Larsen, Kevor Palumets, Markus Poom, Mattias Käit, Mihkel Ainsalu, Karel Mustmaa.
Rauno Sappinen, Vlasiy Sinyavskiy and Vladislav Kreida have been left out of the squad for health reasons. Rocco Robert Shein has also not joined the Estonia squad.
The teams' chances
Bulgaria's win odds of 1.67 correspond to a margin-free probability of 57.2% and fair odds of 1.75. For the draw, the figures are 3.60, 26.6% and 3.77; for an Estonia win, they are 5.90, 16.2% and 6.17.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria win | 1.67 | 1.75 | 57.2% |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.77 | 26.6% |
| Estonia win | 5.90 | 6.17 | 16.2% |
Total goals prediction
Under 2.5 goals is available at 1.60, compared with 2.35 for Over 2.5. At a line of 2 goals, Under is offered at 2.00 and Over at 1.75; at 3.5 goals, Under at 1.16 is considerably more likely than Over at 4.30.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.60 | 2.35 |
| 2 | 2.00 | 1.75 |
| 3.5 | 1.16 | 4.30 |
Handicap prediction
Bulgaria (-1.5) are available at 2.80, while Estonia (+1.5) are at 1.40. At a handicap line of 1, Bulgaria (-1) are offered at 2.35 and Estonia (+1) at 1.60. With a zero handicap, Bulgaria (0) are at 1.20, compared with 3.90 for Estonia (0).
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.80 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 1.40 | |
| 2.35 | -1 | |
| 1 | 1.60 | |
| 1.20 | 0 | 3.90 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score – No at 1.60 is favoured over Both teams to score – Yes at 2.30: the market considers it more likely that at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 2.30 |
| No | 1.60 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
11/100
|
3/10
|
6/5
|
| 888sport |
7/50
|
3/10
|
6/5
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Bulgaria — 1.5 goals; Estonia — 0.5 goals.
Bulgaria team goals
For Bulgaria's team goals, Under 0.5 at 4.30 is less likely than Over 0.5 at 1.20; at a line of 1 goal, the odds are 2.80 and 1.38 respectively. At 1.5 goals, Under is 1.73 and Over 2.05, while at 2 goals, Under at 1.30 is considerably more likely than Over at 3.30.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.30 | 0.5 | 1.20 |
| 2.80 | 1 | 1.38 |
| 1.73 | 1.5 | 2.05 |
| 1.30 | 2 | 3.30 |
Estonia team goals
For Estonia's team goals, Under 0.5 at 1.85 and Over 0.5 at 1.90 are almost level. At a line of 1 goal, Under at 1.25 is considerably more likely than Over at 3.45; at 1.5 goals, the odds are 1.12 and 4.90 respectively.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 1.85 | 0.5 | 1.90 |
| 1.25 | 1 | 3.45 |
| 1.12 | 1.5 | 4.90 |
