Odds overview
Iceland are favourites in the 1X2 market, with an Iceland win at 1.84, a draw at around 3.45 and a Bulgaria win at 4.20. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals at 1.70 is favoured over Over 2.5 goals at 2.06. Bulgaria (+1) is available at 1.47, while Iceland (+1) is at 2.51.
Why Iceland are match favourites
Bookmakers favour the visitors: an Iceland win is offered at 1.84. A draw is at 3.45, while a Bulgaria win is at 4.20.
- Iceland lead UEFA Nations League Group C4 with eight points from four matches.
- Bulgaria have failed to win 6 of their last 10 matches in all official competitions.
Form and Line-up Bulgaria
In the previous round, Bulgaria beat Luxembourg 2:0 away from home. It was their first win in this edition of the competition and their first in six matches. Atanas Iliev, Asen Chandarov and Kristiyan Balov have scored the national team's three goals in this UEFA Nations League campaign.
- Bulgaria have scored fewer than 2.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 matches in all official competitions.
- Bulgaria have not had more shots on target than their opponents in any of their last four matches in all official competitions.
- Bulgaria have failed to win 9 of their last 10 home matches.
Probable Bulgaria line-up (4-3-3): Daniel Naumov, Ivan Turitsov, Stefan Velkov, Emil Tsenov, Dimitar Velkovski, Andrian Kraev, Ilia Gruev, Georgi Rusev, Kristiyan Balov, Lukas Petkov, Atanas Iliev
Form and Line-up Iceland
Iceland played their most recent official match on 6 October, drawing 0:0 away to Estonia. It was the second match against Estonia that they failed to win, following a 1:1 draw at home. Even so, Arnar Gunnlaugsson's team lead the group, two points ahead of Estonia.
- Iceland's opponents have scored fewer than 2.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 matches in all official competitions.
- More than 5.5 shots on target have been recorded in 8 of Iceland's last 10 matches in all official competitions.
Probable Iceland line-up (4-3-3): Hákon Valdimarsson, Guðlaugur Victor Pálsson, Stefán Teitur Þórðarson, Daníel Leó Grétarsson, Mikael Egill Ellertsson, Gylfi Sigurðsson, Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson, Hákon Arnar Haraldsson, Andri Lucas Guðjohnsen, Orri Steinn Óskarsson, Jón Dagur Thorsteinsson
Unavailable: Mikael Anderson (injured)
The teams' chances
The margin-free assessment gives Bulgaria a 22.2% chance of winning, with average odds of 4.20 and fair odds of 4.50. The draw is rated at 27.1%, with odds of 3.45 against fair odds of 3.70. An Iceland win is most likely at 50.7%, with odds of 1.84 and fair odds of 1.97.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria win | 4.20 | 4.50 | 22.2% |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.70 | 27.1% |
| Iceland win | 1.84 | 1.97 | 50.7% |
Total goals prediction
In the 2.5-goal totals market, Under at 1.70 is favoured over Over at 2.06. At a line of 2 goals, the market leans more strongly towards Over — 1.55 versus 2.32 for Under. At 3.5 goals, by contrast, Under is at 1.25 and Over at 3.50.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.70 | 2.06 |
| 2 | 2.32 | 1.55 |
| 3.5 | 1.25 | 3.50 |
Handicap prediction
In the handicap market, Bulgaria (+1) are offered at 1.47, while Iceland (+1) are at 2.51. At a zero handicap, Iceland (0) are much shorter at 1.46, while Bulgaria (0) are at 2.54.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.47 | 1 | 2.51 |
| 2.54 | 0 | 1.46 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
91/100
|
29/100
|
17/100
|
| William Hill |
91/100
|
3/10
|
11/50
|
| LeoVegas |
9/10
|
3/10
|
6/25
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goals totals for this match: Bulgaria — 0.5 goals, Iceland — 1.5 goals.
Bulgaria team total goals
For Bulgaria's team total, Over 0.5 goals is at 1.57, compared with 2.28 for Under 0.5. At the line of 1 goal, two pairs of outcomes are listed with different settlement terms: Under 1 at 1.57 and Over 1 at 2.28, as well as Under 1 at 3.00 and Over 1 at 1.35.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.28 | 0.5 | 1.57 |
| 1.57 | 1 | 2.28 |
| 3.00 | 1 | 1.35 |
Iceland team total goals
For Iceland's team total, Over 0.5 goals is at 1.21, while Under 0.5 is at 3.85. At the line of 1.5 goals, Under is at 1.74 and Over at 2.01. At a total of 2 goals, Under is favoured at 1.33, compared with 3.09 for Over.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.85 | 0.5 | 1.21 |
| 1.74 | 1.5 | 2.01 |
| 1.33 | 2 | 3.09 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Florian Badstübner (Germany)
Matches – 9 (International matches, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match – 25;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 3.9;
Matches with a red card – 1 of 9;
Matches with a penalty – 3 of 9.
