Bulgaria vs Luxembourg: prediction & betting odds 26 September 2026

Odds overview

Bulgaria are slight favourites at around 2.30 to win, while a draw is 3.15 and a Luxembourg win is 3.35. At the 2-goal line, Over is shorter than Under — 1.80 against 1.97. In the handicap market, Bulgaria (0) at 1.62 are clearly favoured over Luxembourg (0) at 2.30.

Why Bulgaria are favourites

Bulgaria are 2.30 to win, a draw is available at 3.15 and Luxembourg are 3.35 to win.

• Bulgaria are at home, and home advantage often proves decisive against opponents who are no stronger than they are.
• Luxembourg create few chances away from home — they managed no more than four shots on target in eight of their last ten UEFA Nations League matches. With such a weak attack, the visitors will find it extremely difficult to score.
• Bulgaria have not lost to Luxembourg in their last nine meetings.

Form and Line-up Bulgaria

In June's friendlies, Bulgaria lost to Montenegro (0:1) and drew with Moldova (2:2). Bulgaria had a chance to earn promotion from League C in the UEFA Nations League, but lost both play-off matches to the Republic of Ireland (1:2, 1:2).

• Bulgaria took no more than 5 corners in 8 of their last 10 home matches across all competitions.
• Bulgaria received at least 2 yellow cards in 8 of their last 10 home matches across all competitions.
• Bulgaria committed no more than 12 fouls in 8 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.

Probable line-up (4-3-3): Dimitar Mitov, Teodor Ivanov, Kristian Dimitrov, Stefan Velkov, Hristiyan Petrov, Andrian Kraev, Ilia Gruev, Kristiyan Stoyanov, Zdravko Dimitrov, Stanislav Ivanov, Georgi Rusev.

Form and Line-up Luxembourg

Before the start of the tournament, Luxembourg narrowly lost to Italy (0:1) and beat Albania (1:0) in June's friendlies. In the previous UEFA Nations League campaign, Luxembourg finished fourth in League C but faced Malta in the play-offs to stay up and gave them no chance — winning 2:0 and 3:0.

• No more than 3 goals were scored in 9 of Luxembourg's last 10 away matches in the UEFA Nations League.
• Luxembourg had at least as many offsides as their opponents in 9 of their last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
• Luxembourg did not receive more yellow cards than their opponents in 9 of their last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.

Probable line-up (4-3-3): Anthony Moris, Laurent Jans, Seid Korać, Dirk Carlson, Florian Bohnert, Christopher Martins Pereira, Olivier Thill, Leandro Barreiro, Vincent Thill, Danel Sinani, Aiman Dardari.

Teams' chances

Bulgaria are available at 2.30 to win, with fair odds of 2.42 and a 41.4% probability. A draw is 3.15, with fair odds of 3.31 and a 30.2% probability. Luxembourg are available at 3.35 to win, with fair odds of 3.52 and a 28.4% probability.

Total goals prediction

Under 2.5 goals is available at 1.57, compared with 2.40 for Over 2.5. At the 2-goal line, Under is 1.97 and Over is 1.80. The difference is even greater at 3.5 goals: Under 3.5 is 1.17 and Over 3.5 is 4.20.

Handicap prediction

At the -1.5 handicap line, Bulgaria (-1.5) are 4.50 and Luxembourg (-1.5) are 7.10. The odds are low for a +1.5 handicap: 1.05 for Bulgaria (+1.5) and 1.15 for Luxembourg (+1.5). Bulgaria (-1) at 3.70 are shorter than Luxembourg (-1) at 6.20; at the +1 line, the respective odds are 1.07 and 1.25. On the zero handicap, Bulgaria (0) at 1.62 are shorter than Luxembourg (0) at 2.30.

Both teams to score prediction

Both teams to score — No is shorter at 1.75, compared with 2.00 for Both teams to score — Yes, making it the favoured option for at least one team to fail to score.

Double chance forecast

Bookmaker	1X	12	X2
Bet365	33/100	11/25	1/2
William Hill	3/10	9/25	31/50
888sport	3/10	2/5	53/100

Odds are current as of the material publication date

Team total goals prediction

Bookmakers have set the following team total goals lines for this match: Bulgaria — 1 goal, Luxembourg — 1 goal.

Bulgaria team total goals

For Bulgaria's team total goals, Under 0.5 is 3.15 and Over 0.5 is 1.30. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 is 2.05 and Over 1 is 1.72. At 1.5 goals, Under is 1.45 and Over is 2.60.

Luxembourg team total goals

For Luxembourg's team total goals, Under 0.5 is available at 2.45 and Over 0.5 at 1.52. At the 1-goal line, Under is 1.60 against 2.25 for Over. At 1.5 goals, the odds are 1.27 for Under 1.5 and 3.45 for Over 1.5.

Who Will Referee the Match

Sander van der Eijk (Netherlands)

Matches — 15 (International Matches, 2025/26–2026/27);

Average fouls per match — 24;

Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 2.4;

Matches with a red card — 4 out of 15;

Matches with a penalty — 4 out of 15.