Odds Overview
Bulgaria are slight favourites: a Bulgaria win is available at around 2.30, while the draw and a Luxembourg win are at 3.15 and 3.35. On the 2-goal line, Over is shorter than Under — 1.80 against 1.97. Bulgaria Draw No Bet at 1.62 is clearly preferred to Luxembourg Draw No Bet at 2.30.
Why Bulgaria Are Favourites
A Bulgaria win is available at 2.30, the draw is at 3.15, and a Luxembourg win is at 3.35.
- Bulgaria are at home, and home advantage often becomes a decisive factor against opponents who are not superior in quality.
- Luxembourg create very few chances away from home — in eight of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches, they registered no more than four shots on target. With such a weak attack, the visitors will find it extremely difficult to count on goals.
- Bulgaria have not lost to Luxembourg in their last nine head-to-head meetings.
Form and Line-up Bulgaria
In June friendlies, Bulgaria lost to Montenegro (0:1) and drew with Moldova (2:2). Bulgaria had a chance to be promoted from League C in the UEFA Nations League, but lost to the Republic of Ireland in the play-offs (1:2, 1:2).
- In 8 of their last 10 home matches in all competitions, Bulgaria took no more than 5 corners.
- In 8 of 10 home matches in all competitions, Bulgaria received at least 2 yellow cards.
- In 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions, Bulgaria committed no more than 12 fouls.
Probable Bulgaria line-up (4-3-3): Dimitar Mitov, Teodor Ivanov, Kristian Dimitrov, Stefan Velkov, Hristiyan Petrov, Andrian Kraev, Ilia Gruev, Kristiyan Stoyanov, Zdravko Dimitrov, Stanislav Ivanov, Georgi Rusev.
Form and Line-up Luxembourg
Ahead of the tournament, Luxembourg narrowly lost to Italy (0:1) and beat Albania (1:0) in June friendlies. In the previous UEFA Nations League, Luxembourg finished fourth in League C but faced Malta in the play-offs to retain their place, giving them no chance — 2:0 and 3:0.
- No more than 3 goals were scored in 9 of Luxembourg's last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
- In 9 of 10 away UEFA Nations League matches, Luxembourg did not lose the offside count.
- In 9 of 10 away UEFA Nations League matches, Luxembourg did not win the yellow-card count.
Probable Luxembourg line-up (4-3-3): Anthony Moris, Laurent Jans, Seid Korac, Dirk Carlson, Florian Bohnert, Christopher Martins Pereira, Olivier Thill, Leandro Barreiro, Vincent Thill, Danel Sinani, Aiman Dardari.
Team Chances
A Bulgaria win is available at 2.30; the fair odds are 2.42 and the probability is 41.4%. The draw is at 3.15, with fair odds of 3.31 and a probability of 30.2%. A Luxembourg win is available at 3.35; the fair odds are 3.52 and the probability is 28.4%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | No-margin probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulgaria win | 2.30 | 2.42 | 41.4% |
| Draw | 3.15 | 3.31 | 30.2% |
| Luxembourg win | 3.35 | 3.52 | 28.4% |
Total Goals Prediction
Under 2.5 goals is at 1.57, compared with 2.40 for Over 2.5 goals. On the 2-goal line, Under is at 1.97 and Over at 1.80. The difference is even more pronounced for 3.5: Under 3.5 is at 1.17, while Over 3.5 is at 4.20.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.57 | 2.40 |
| 2 | 1.97 | 1.80 |
| 3.5 | 1.17 | 4.20 |
Handicap Prediction
On the -1.5 line, Bulgaria (-1.5) is at 4.50 and Luxembourg (-1.5) at 7.10. At a 1.5 handicap, the odds are short: 1.05 for Bulgaria (+1.5) and 1.15 for Luxembourg (+1.5). Bulgaria (-1) at 3.70 is shorter than Luxembourg (-1) at 6.20; on the 1 line, the respective odds are 1.07 and 1.25. In the Draw No Bet market, Bulgaria at 1.62 is shorter than Luxembourg at 2.30.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 4.50 | -1.5 | 7.10 |
| 1.05 | 1.5 | 1.15 |
| 3.70 | -1 | 6.20 |
| 1.07 | 1 | 1.25 |
| 1.62 | 0 | 2.30 |
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Both teams to score - No is shorter at 1.75, compared with 2.00 for Both teams to score - Yes, meaning at least one team is expected not to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 2.00 |
| No | 1.75 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
3/10
|
9/25
|
57/100
|
| William Hill |
3/10
|
9/25
|
31/50
|
| 888sport |
3/10
|
9/25
|
61/100
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team Total Goals Prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: Bulgaria — 1 goal, Luxembourg — 1 goal.
Bulgaria Team Total
Bulgaria team total: Under 0.5 is at 3.15, while Over 0.5 is at 1.30. On the 1-goal line, the odds are 2.05 for Under 1 and 1.72 for Over 1. For 1.5, Under is at 1.45 and Over at 2.60.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.15 | 0.5 | 1.30 |
| 2.05 | 1 | 1.72 |
| 1.45 | 1.5 | 2.60 |
Luxembourg Team Total
Luxembourg team total: Under 0.5 is available at 2.45, while Over 0.5 is at 1.52. On the 1-goal line, Under is at 1.60, compared with 2.25 for Over. For 1.5, the odds are 1.27 for Under 1.5 and 3.45 for Over 1.5.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.45 | 0.5 | 1.52 |
| 1.60 | 1 | 2.25 |
| 1.27 | 1.5 | 3.45 |
