Odds overview
Celta de Vigo are favourites: a home win is around 2.12, compared with 3.30 for a draw and 3.70 for a Deportivo Alavés win. In the 2.5-goal market, Under 2.5 is quoted much shorter at 1.65 than Over 2.5 at 2.25. Celta de Vigo Draw No Bet is 1.52, while Deportivo Alavés Draw No Bet is 2.55.
Why Celta de Vigo are favourites
Bookmakers favour the hosts: a Celta de Vigo win is available at 2.12, implying a fair probability of around 45.1%. A draw is offered at 3.30 (29.0%), while an away win for Deportivo Alavés is 3.70 (25.9%).
- Celta de Vigo have stood out for the most organised defence at the start of the season: after eight rounds, they have conceded an average of just 0.75 goals per match, ranking first in La Liga on that measure.
- Deportivo Alavés have yet to win away this season — two draws and one defeat.
- Celta de Vigo have lost to Deportivo Alavés only once in six home meetings.
Form and Line-up Celta de Vigo
In their latest league match, the Galicians drew 0:0 with Elche, taking seven shots at their opponents' goal. Before that, Celta de Vigo recorded three draws and a 5:0 win over Racing Santander. They also faced Juventus in the UEFA Europa League (1:2), taking the lead through a Hernández goal before conceding twice to Nick Woltemade and Randal Kolo Muani.
- Nine of Celta de Vigo's last 10 La Liga matches have had under 3.5 goals.
- Celta de Vigo have taken fewer than 5.5 corners in each of their last 10 home La Liga matches.
- Celta de Vigo have received fewer than 2.5 yellow cards in each of their last 10 home La Liga matches.
Probable Celta de Vigo line-up (3-4-3): Ionuț Radu, Álvaro Núñez, Yoel Lago, Marcos Alonso, Javier Rueda, Ilaix Moriba, Aleix Febas, Javi Galan, Ferran Jutglà, Iago Aspas, Hugo Álvarez.
Absentees: Borja Iglesias, Pablo Durán, Younes El Abdellaoui, Miguel Román and Carl Starfelt (all injured).
Form and Line-up Deportivo Alavés
Before Matchday 9, the Basque side were seventh in the table with 11 points and a goal difference of 12:8. In their previous La Liga match, Deportivo Alavés lost 1:2 at home to Atlético Madrid. It was their fourth consecutive match without a win — three defeats and a draw in the last four rounds.
- Nine of Deportivo Alavés's last 10 La Liga matches have had under 3.5 goals.
- Each of Deportivo Alavés's last 10 away La Liga matches has had more than 25.5 fouls.
- Deportivo Alavés have taken fewer corners than their opponents in nine of their last 10 away La Liga matches.
Probable Deportivo Alavés line-up (5-3-2): Antonio Sivera, Ville Koski, Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolás Valentini, Jonny Otto, Abde Rebbach, Pablo Ibáñez, Antonio Blanco, Denis Suárez, Toni Martínez, Lucas Boyé.
Absentees: Mikel Rodriguez and Facundo Garcés (both injured), Ángel Pérez (suspended).
The teams' chances
Celta de Vigo to win: 2.12, with fair odds of 2.22 and a fair probability of 45.1%. Draw: 3.30, with fair odds of 3.45 and a fair probability of 29.0%. Deportivo Alavés to win: 3.70, with fair odds of 3.87 and a fair probability of 25.9%.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celta de Vigo win | 2.12 | 2.22 | 45.1% |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.45 | 29.0% |
| Deportivo Alavés win | 3.70 | 3.87 | 25.9% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 at 1.65 is favoured over Over 2.5 at 2.25. At 2 goals, Under 2 is quoted longer at 2.12 than Over 2 at 1.68, while at 3.5 goals, Under 3.5 at 1.20 is much shorter than Over 3.5 at 4.10.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.65 | 2.25 |
| 2 | 2.12 | 1.68 |
| 3.5 | 1.20 | 4.10 |
Handicap prediction
Celta de Vigo (-1.5) are 4.20, while Deportivo Alavés (-1.5) are 7.80. At the +1.5 handicap, Celta de Vigo (+1.5) are shorter at 1.05 than Deportivo Alavés (+1.5) at 1.20. Celta de Vigo (-1) are 3.20 and Deportivo Alavés (-1) are 6.70; Celta de Vigo (+1) are 1.06 and Deportivo Alavés (+1) are 1.30. At a zero handicap, Celta de Vigo (0) are much shorter at 1.52 than Deportivo Alavés (0) at 2.55.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 4.20 | -1.5 | 7.80 |
| 1.05 | 1.5 | 1.20 |
| 3.20 | -1 | 6.70 |
| 1.06 | 1 | 1.30 |
| 1.52 | 0 | 2.55 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score – No is shorter at 1.80 than Both teams to score – Yes at 1.95, so the market slightly favours at least one team failing to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.95 |
| No | 1.80 |
Team goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Celta de Vigo — 1 goal; Deportivo Alavés — 1 goal.
Celta de Vigo team goals
Celta de Vigo team goals: Under 0.5 — 3.55, Over 0.5 — 1.25; Under 1 — 2.30, Over 1 — 1.58; Under 1.5 — 1.55, Over 1.5 — 2.35. The market strongly favours at least one goal, but favours the under at the 1.5-goal line.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.55 | 0.5 | 1.25 |
| 2.30 | 1 | 1.58 |
| 1.55 | 1.5 | 2.35 |
Deportivo Alavés team goals
Deportivo Alavés team goals: Under 0.5 — 2.40, Over 0.5 — 1.53; Under 1 — 1.60, Over 1 — 2.25; Under 1.5 — 1.25, Over 1.5 — 3.50. An away goal is more likely, although the unders are shorter at the 1- and 1.5-goal lines.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.40 | 0.5 | 1.53 |
| 1.60 | 1 | 2.25 |
| 1.25 | 1.5 | 3.50 |
Who Will Referee the Match
José Luis Munuera (Spain)
Matches — 24 (La Liga, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 26;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellow cards) — 3.7;
Matches with a red card — 7 out of 24;
Matches with a penalty — 5 out of 24.
