Odds overview
Celta Vigo are favourites: a home win is available at 1.70, while the draw is 3.80 and an away win is 5.10. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals at 1.80 is rated slightly more likely than Over 2.5 goals at 2.03. In the handicap market, Celta Vigo Draw No Bet at 1.25 versus Malaga Draw No Bet at 3.50 gives the hosts the edge.
Why Celta Vigo are favourites for the match
A Celta Vigo win is available at 1.70, the draw at 3.80 and a Malaga win at 5.10. The arguments for this assessment are:
Malaga have not won any of their last 10 away matches in La Liga.
Malaga have managed no more than four shots on target in each of their last 10 away matches. With such an attack, scoring at Balaidos will be extremely difficult, and without goals it will be almost impossible to take points away from Vigo.
Celta Vigo have not lost to Malaga at Balaidos in four consecutive meetings.
Form and Line-up Celta Vigo
In their latest match against Getafe (1:1), Celta Vigo rescued a draw thanks to Carl Starfelt's goal from Hugo Gonzalez's corner. It was only their third point after five La Liga matchdays. In the previous matches, the Celts lost twice (to Athletic and Osasuna) and drew twice (with Valencia and Real Sociedad).
Key numbers:
Celta Vigo have gone 15 La Liga home matches without a draw.
No more than 10 corners were taken in 9 of Celta Vigo's last 10 La Liga home matches.
Celta Vigo received no more than 2 yellow cards in each of their last 10 La Liga home matches.
Probable Celta Vigo line-up (3-4-3): Ionut Radu — Yoel Lago, Carl Starfelt, Marcos Alonso — Jones El-Abdellaoui, Miguel Roman, Ilaix Moriba, Javi Galan — Iago Aspas, Pablo Duran, Hugo Gonzalez.
Absentees: Borja Iglesias, Aleix Febas (both injured).
Form and Line-up Malaga
In the previous round, Malaga drew 0:0 at home to Levante, with Chupe missing a penalty early in the match. The Anchovies' main problem is their toothless attack — two defeats (to Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid) and two draws (with Deportivo and Levante) have yielded just one goal. Malaga have also conceded seven goals in four matchdays.
Key numbers:
Malaga have not had more total shots than their opponents in any of their last 10 La Liga away matches.
Malaga have had fewer corners than their opponents in 9 of their last 10 La Liga away matches.
At least 25 fouls were recorded in 9 of Malaga's last 10 La Liga away matches.
Probable Malaga line-up (4-3-3): Alfonso Herrero — Rafa Garrido, Einar Galilea, Antonio Recio, Jose Salinas — Carlos Dotor, Pablo Martinez, Dani Lorenzo — David Larrubia, Chupe, Juan Cruz.
Absentees: Adrian Nino, Diego Murillo, Fernando Calero, Aaron Ochoa, Julen Lobete (all injured).
Team chances
Celta Vigo to win is available at 1.70; the fair odds are 1.78 and the probability is 56.2%. The draw is available at 3.80, with fair odds of 3.98 and a probability of 25.1%. Malaga to win at 5.10 corresponds to fair odds of 5.34 and a probability of 18.7%.
Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | No-margin probability |
Celta Vigo to win | 1.70 | 1.78 | 56.2% |
Draw | 3.80 | 3.98 | 25.1% |
Malaga to win | 5.10 | 5.34 | 18.7% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5 line, Under 2.5 goals is 1.80 and Over 2.5 goals is 2.03, giving a slight edge to the lower-goals option. The gap is wider at 3.5: Under 3.5 goals is 1.30 versus 3.25 for Over 3.5 goals.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 1.80 | 2.03 |
3.5 | 1.30 | 3.25 |
Handicap prediction
Celta Vigo (-1.5) is available at 2.85, while Malaga (+1.5) is 1.37. At the 1 line, the odds are 2.20 for Celta Vigo (-1) and 1.67 for Malaga (+1). In the Draw No Bet market, Celta Vigo are at 1.25, substantially shorter than Malaga at 3.50.
Home | Handicap | Away |
2.85 | -1.5 | — |
— | 1.5 | 1.37 |
2.20 | -1 | — |
— | 1 | 1.67 |
1.25 | 0 | 3.50 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - Yes is available at 1.95, while Both teams to score - No is 1.80. The shorter odds slightly favour a scenario in which at least one team does not score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.95 |
No | 1.80 |
Double chance prediction
Double chance 1X is available at 1.17, 12 at 1.27 and X2 at 2.15. The odds make 1X the most likely option, while X2 is rated considerably more cautiously.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.17 | 1.27 | 2.15 |
Team total prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: Celta Vigo — 1.5 goals; Malaga — 0.5 goals.
Celta Vigo team total
Celta Vigo team total: Under 0.5 goals is 4.60 and Over 0.5 goals is 1.14; at the 1-goal line, they are 3.30 and 1.28 respectively. At 1.5, the odds are almost equal: Under 1.5 goals at 1.88 and Over 1.5 goals at 1.87. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 goals is available at 1.42 and Over 2 goals at 2.65.
Under | Team total | Over |
4.60 | 0.5 | 1.14 |
3.30 | 1 | 1.28 |
1.88 | 1.5 | 1.87 |
1.42 | 2 | 2.65 |
Malaga team total
Malaga team total: Under 0.5 goals is available at 2.17 and Over 0.5 goals at 1.65. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 goals is 1.45 versus 2.65 for Over 1 goals, while at 1.5, Under 1.5 goals is 1.20 and Over 1.5 goals is 3.90.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.17 | 0.5 | 1.65 |
1.45 | 1 | 2.65 |
1.20 | 1.5 | 3.90 |
