Odds overview
Chelsea are favourites in the 1X2 market: a Chelsea win is available at around 1.70, while a draw and a Bournemouth win are quoted at 4.15 and 4.60. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.50 is considerably more likely than Under 2.5 goals at 2.50. For the main handicap, Chelsea (0) at 1.30 have much shorter odds than Bournemouth (0) at 3.25.
Why Chelsea are favourites
Bookmakers favour the home side: a Chelsea win is offered at 1.70, a draw at 4.15 and a Bournemouth win at 4.60.
• The market reflects Chelsea's attacking potential: they average two goals per league match and are among the Premier League's three highest-scoring teams.
• Bournemouth are in their first season under Marco Rose and have to divide their resources between the league and the UEFA Europa League, making it harder to compete with the favourites on their home ground.
• Bournemouth are one place above the relegation zone in 17th, without a win to their name.
Form and Line-up Chelsea
Chelsea have been inconsistent at the start of the league season: after battling to a 2:2 home draw with Hull City, they lost 0:3 away to Brentford, conceding all three goals in the second half. Chelsea have seven points from five matches and sit 10th, so they need a home win to return to the European places.
- All five of Chelsea's Premier League matches this season have featured Over 2.5 goals.
- Each of Chelsea's last 10 Premier League home matches has featured Over 3.5 yellow cards.
- In 9 of Chelsea's last 10 Premier League home matches, their opponents were caught offside fewer than two times.
Probable Chelsea line-up (3-4-2-1): Emiliano Martínez, Wesley Fofana, Maxence Lacroix, Levi Colwill, Pedro Neto, Roméo Lavia, Valentín Barco, Pep Chavarría, Cole Palmer, Morgan Rogers, Danny Welbeck
Absentees: Reece James, João Pedro, Marco Palestra and Moisés Caicedo (injured); Jamie Gittens (doubtful)
Form and Line-up Bournemouth
Bournemouth have had mixed results across competitions: after a narrow 0:1 home defeat to Liverpool in the Premier League, they beat Real Sociedad 2:1 away in the UEFA Europa League. They have struggled to manage their workload. If the Cherries drop points again, they could fall into the relegation zone.
- All five of Bournemouth's Premier League matches this season have featured Under 4.5 goals.
- Bournemouth have had fewer than 5.5 shots on target in each of their last 10 Premier League away matches.
- Bournemouth have avoided defeat in 9 of their last 10 Premier League away matches.
Probable Bournemouth line-up (4-2-3-1): Djordje Petrovic, Adam Smith, James Hill, António Silva, Adrien Truffert, Tyler Adams, Lewis Cook, Ryan, Ryan Christie, Marcus Tavernier, Evanilson
Absentees: Alex Scott, Eli Junior Kroupi, Julián Araujo, Justin Kluivert and Amine Adli (injured)
The teams' chances
Chelsea to win is quoted at 1.70; the fair odds are 1.78, implying a 56.2% probability. A draw is listed at 4.15, with fair odds of 4.34 and a 23.0% probability. Bournemouth to win is offered at 4.60, with fair odds of 4.81 and a 20.8% probability.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 1.70 | 1.78 | 56.2% |
| Draw | 4.15 | 4.34 | 23.0% |
| Bournemouth win | 4.60 | 4.81 | 20.8% |
Double chance forecast
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Total goals prediction
Under 2.5 goals is available at 2.50, while Over 2.5 goals is 1.50. At the 3.5-goal line, Under is offered at 1.67 and Over at 2.20.
| Goal line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.50 | 1.50 |
| 3.5 | 1.67 | 2.20 |
Handicap prediction
Chelsea (-1.5) are quoted at 2.65, compared with 7.30 for Bournemouth (-1.5). At the +1.5 handicap line, Chelsea (+1.5) are 1.05 and Bournemouth (+1.5) are 1.45. Chelsea (-1) are available at 2.13 and Bournemouth (-1) at 6.30; at the +1 handicap line, the respective odds are 1.07 and 1.72. At the 0 handicap line, Chelsea (0) at 1.30 are much shorter than Bournemouth (0) at 3.25.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.65 | -1.5 | 7.30 |
| 1.05 | 1.5 | 1.45 |
| 2.13 | -1 | 6.30 |
| 1.07 | 1 | 1.72 |
| 1.30 | 0 | 3.25 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is quoted at 1.52, while Both teams to score — No, meaning at least one team will fail to score, is offered at 2.45.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.52 |
| No | 2.45 |
Double chance forecast
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team goal lines: Chelsea — 2 goals; Bournemouth — 1 goal.
Chelsea team goals
Chelsea team goals: Under 0.5 at 6.70, Over 0.5 at 1.06. At the 1.5-goal line, Under is quoted at 2.35 and Over at 1.55; at the 2-goal line, the respective odds are 1.75 and 2.00. Under 2.5 is available at 1.45 and Over 2.5 at 2.65.
| Under | Team goal line | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 6.70 | 0.5 | 1.06 |
| 2.35 | 1.5 | 1.55 |
| 1.75 | 2 | 2.00 |
| 1.45 | 2.5 | 2.65 |
Bournemouth team goals
Bournemouth team goals: Under 0.5 is offered at 2.85 and Over 0.5 at 1.37. At the 1-goal line, Under is available at 1.95 and Over at 1.80. Under 1.5 is quoted at 1.42, compared with 2.65 for Over 1.5.
| Under | Team goal line | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.85 | 0.5 | 1.37 |
| 1.95 | 1 | 1.80 |
| 1.42 | 1.5 | 2.65 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Sam Barrott (England)
Matches — 27 (Premier League, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 19;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.3;
Matches with a red card — 1 of 27;
Matches with a penalty — 7 of 27.
