Odds overview
Chelsea to win is available at 1.83, the draw at 3.95 and Manchester United to win at 4.05 — Chelsea are clear favourites. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.60 is considered more likely than Under 2.5 goals at 2.35. In the main handicap market, Chelsea Draw No Bet (0) is offered at 1.35, compared with 2.90 for Manchester United Draw No Bet (0).
Why Chelsea are favourites
Bookmakers favour Chelsea in this fixture: a Chelsea win is available at 1.83, the draw at 3.95 and a Manchester United win at 4.05.
- Chelsea are fifth in the Premier League, while Manchester United are 16th.
- Manchester United have gone eight matches without a win in all competitions (three draws and five defeats).
Form and Line-up Chelsea
Chelsea come into this match after a 0:2 home defeat to Tottenham last Saturday. Before that, they won twice in the league: they beat Everton away (2:0) and thrashed Bournemouth at home (5:1). Chelsea also have selection problems: Xabi Alonso must do without first-choice goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez, while his replacement Mike Penders has yet to show the same consistency. There is also the question of who will replace João Pedro, who is out for a month. Experienced striker Danny Welbeck is the likeliest choice to lead the line.
- Chelsea have scored in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- The teams have combined for more than 5.5 shots on target in each of Chelsea’s last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Chelsea have scored in 9 of the last 10 Premier League meetings between the sides.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Mike Penders, Josh Acheampong, Wesley Fofana, Levi Colwill, Jorrel Hato, Jordan Henderson, Moisés Caicedo, Pedro Neto, Cole Palmer, Morgan Rogers, Danny Welbeck
Absentees: Reece James, João Pedro, Maxence Lacroix, Emiliano Martínez, Pep Chavarría (injured)
Form and Line-up Manchester United
Manchester United also come into the match after a home defeat: they lost 0:3 to Bournemouth on Sunday. It was their second heavy defeat in a row: on 21 October, Michael Carrick’s side lost 1:4 away to Como. Pressure on the head coach is mounting — he could be dismissed after another match without a win, and United have already gone eight matches without one.
- Manchester United’s opponents have scored at least one goal in 9 of United’s last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Manchester United have scored fewer than 2.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- The teams have combined for more than 5.5 shots on target in 9 of Manchester United’s last 10 matches in all competitions.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Senne Lammens, Diogo Dalot, Leny Yoro, Harry Maguire, Ayden Heaven, Andrey Santos, Carlos Baleba, Amad Diallo, Youri Tielemans, Mason Mount, Bryan Mbeumo
Absentees: Manuel Ugarte, Luke Shaw, Benjamin Sesko, Patrick Dorgu, Kobbie Mainoo (injured), Marcus Rashford (doubtful)
The teams’ chances
Chelsea to win is offered at 1.83, with fair odds of 1.92 and a probability of 52.2%. The draw is available at 3.95, with fair odds of 4.13 and a probability of 24.2%. Manchester United to win is available at 4.05, with fair odds of 4.24 and a probability of 23.6%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea to win | 1.83 | 1.92 | 52.2% |
| Draw | 3.95 | 4.13 | 24.2% |
| Manchester United to win | 4.05 | 4.24 | 23.6% |
Total goals betting
At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 goals is available at 2.35, while Over 2.5 goals is 1.60. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 goals is favoured at 1.55, compared with 2.35 for Over 3.5 goals.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.35 | 1.60 |
| 3.5 | 1.55 | 2.35 |
Handicap betting
At the -1.5 handicap line, Chelsea (-1.5) are available at 2.85 and Manchester United (-1.5) at 6.60. For the 1.5 handicap, the odds are 1.06 for Chelsea (+1.5) and 1.37 for Manchester United (+1.5). At the -1 line, Chelsea (-1) are quoted at 2.35, compared with 5.80 for Manchester United (-1); at the 1 line, Chelsea (+1) are 1.09 and Manchester United (+1) are 1.60. For the zero handicap, Chelsea (0) are offered at 1.35 and Manchester United (0) at 2.90.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.85 | -1.5 | 6.60 |
| 1.06 | 1.5 | 1.37 |
| 2.35 | -1 | 5.80 |
| 1.09 | 1 | 1.60 |
| 1.35 | 0 | 2.90 |
Both teams to score betting
Both teams to score — Yes is available at 1.55, while Both teams to score — No, meaning at least one team will fail to score, is offered at 2.35.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.55 |
| No | 2.35 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
11/50
|
1/4
|
91/100
|
| 888sport |
1/4
|
1/4
|
91/100
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals betting
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Chelsea — 1.5 goals; Manchester United — 1 goal.
Chelsea team total goals
For Chelsea, Under 0.5 goals is available at 5.70 and Over 0.5 goals at 1.09; at the 1-goal line, the respective odds are 3.95 and 1.20. At 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 is offered at 2.10, compared with 1.70 for Over 1.5; at the 2-goal line, Under 2 is 1.58 and Over 2 is 2.30.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.70 | 0.5 | 1.09 |
| 3.95 | 1 | 1.20 |
| 2.10 | 1.5 | 1.70 |
| 1.58 | 2 | 2.30 |
Manchester United team total goals
For Manchester United, Under 0.5 goals is offered at 2.95 and Over 0.5 goals at 1.35. At the 1-goal line, the odds are 1.95 for Under 1 and 1.80 for Over 1; at the 1.5-goal line, they are 1.40 for Under 1.5 and 2.75 for Over 1.5.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.95 | 0.5 | 1.35 |
| 1.95 | 1 | 1.80 |
| 1.40 | 1.5 | 2.75 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Peter Bankes (England)
Matches — 27 (Premier League, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 25;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.9;
Matches with a red card — 5 of 27;
Matches with a penalty — 7 of 27.
