Odds overview
In the 1X2 market, Como to win has a slight edge at 2.30: Manchester United to win is available at 2.90 and the draw at 3.75. In the main goals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.63 is considerably more likely than Under 2.5 goals at 2.30. For the main handicap, Como Draw No Bet at 1.70 is favoured over Manchester United Draw No Bet at 2.15.
Why Como are favourites
Bookmakers favour the hosts: Como to win is offered at 2.30, Manchester United to win at 2.90 and the draw at 3.75.
The Italian club have been picking up points consistently at home: Como have avoided defeat in 9 of their last 10 home matches across all competitions.
Manchester United have struggled away from home in the UEFA Champions League: they have failed to win 9 of their last 10 away matches in the competition.
Como outperformed their opponents in both UEFA Champions League matches (4.26 xG to 1.95 and 11 shots on target), while Manchester United followed an impressive match against Sabah with a poor showing in Madrid and have now gone five matches without a win across all competitions.
Form and Line-up Como
In their most recent Serie A match, Como beat Fiorentina 3:1 away from home thanks to goals from Mattia Liberali, Nicolás Paz and Anastasios Douvikas. They had earlier lost 2:3 to Feyenoord in the UEFA Champions League but remained 12th in the table after two rounds with three points, having beaten Leipzig 4:1.
- Como's opponents have taken fewer than 5.5 corners in each of their last 10 home matches across all competitions.
- There have been fewer than 10.5 corners in 8 of Como's last 10 home matches across all competitions.
- Como have conceded no more than one goal in 8 of their last 10 home matches across all competitions.
Probable Como line-up (4-2-3-1): Robert Sánchez, Ivan Smolcic, Alberto Dossena, Jacobo Ramón, Álex Valle, Luis Milla, Máximo Perrone, Jesus Rodriguez, Martin Baturina, Kaiky, Nico Paz.
Absentees: Assane Diao, Moise Kean, Trevoh Chalobah (all injured).
Form and Line-up Manchester United
Before travelling to Italy, Manchester United drew 1:1 with Leeds United in the league, with Bryan Mbeumo scoring their only goal. Last European weekend, Manchester United lost 0:2 to Atlético Madrid, having earlier thrashed Sabah 4:0.
- Manchester United have taken fewer than 5.5 corners in 8 of their last 10 away matches in the UEFA Champions League.
- There have been fewer than 3.5 offsides in 8 of Manchester United's last 10 away matches in the UEFA Champions League.
- Manchester United have taken fewer than 13.5 shots, including blocked shots, in 8 of their last 10 away matches in the UEFA Champions League.
Probable Manchester United line-up (4-2-3-1): Senne Lammens, Ayden Heaven, Harry Maguire, Lisandro Martínez, Diogo Dalot, Andrey Santos, Youri Tielemans, Amad Diallo, Bruno Fernandes, Marcus Rashford, Bryan Mbeumo.
Absentees: Leny Yoro (suspended), Tom Heaton, Patrick Dorgu, Benjamin Sesko, Manuel Ugarte (all injured), Kobbie Mainoo, Luke Shaw (both doubtful).
Teams' chances
Como to win is offered at 2.30, with fair odds of 2.41 and a 41.6% probability. The draw is available at 3.75, with fair odds of 3.92 and a 25.5% probability. Manchester United to win is offered at 2.90, with fair odds of 3.03 and a 33.0% probability.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Como to win | 2.30 | 2.41 | 41.6% |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.92 | 25.5% |
| Manchester United to win | 2.90 | 3.03 | 33.0% |
Total goals prediction
In the totals market, Under 2.5 goals at 2.30 is less favoured than Over 2.5 goals at 1.63. Under 3.5 goals is offered at 1.55, while Over 3.5 goals is quoted at 2.40.
| Goals line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.30 | 1.63 |
| 3.5 | 1.55 | 2.40 |
Handicap prediction
Como (-1.5) at 3.95 is shorter than Manchester United (-1.5) at 4.60. At the +1.5 handicap, Como (+1.5) at 1.14 has shorter odds than Manchester United (+1.5) at 1.20. Como (-1) at 3.25 is favoured over Manchester United (-1) at 4.30, while Como (+1) at 1.20 is shorter than Manchester United (+1) at 1.30. With a zero handicap, Como Draw No Bet (0) at 1.70 has shorter odds than Manchester United Draw No Bet (0) at 2.15.
| Hosts | Handicap | Visitors |
|---|---|---|
| 3.95 | -1.5 | 4.60 |
| 1.14 | 1.5 | 1.20 |
| 3.25 | -1 | 4.30 |
| 1.20 | 1 | 1.30 |
| 1.70 | 0 | 2.15 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score – Yes at 1.50 looks considerably more likely than Both teams to score – No at 2.45, which means at least one team would fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.50 |
| No | 2.45 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
9/25
|
29/100
|
67/100
|
| William Hill |
2/5
|
29/100
|
31/50
|
| 888sport |
2/5
|
29/100
|
61/100
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Como — 1.5 goals; Manchester United — 1.5 goals.
Como team total goals
Como team total goals: Over 0.5 at 1.15 is clearly favoured over Under 0.5 at 4.50; at the 1-goal line, Over 1 is 1.32 against Under 1 at 3.10. The odds for Under 1.5 and Over 1.5 are almost equal — 1.85 and 1.90. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 at 1.35 is favoured over Over 2 at 2.95.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.50 | 0.5 | 1.15 |
| 3.10 | 1 | 1.32 |
| 1.85 | 1.5 | 1.90 |
| 1.35 | 2 | 2.95 |
Manchester United team total goals
Manchester United team total goals: Over 0.5 at 1.23 has shorter odds than Under 0.5 at 3.70; at the 1-goal line, Over 1 is 1.48 against Under 1 at 2.55. Under 1.5 at 1.63 is favoured over Over 1.5 at 2.20, while Under 2 at 1.25 is favoured over Over 2 at 3.55.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.70 | 0.5 | 1.23 |
| 2.55 | 1 | 1.48 |
| 1.63 | 1.5 | 2.20 |
| 1.25 | 2 | 3.55 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Sven Jablonski (Germany)
Matches – 12 (International matches, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match – 24;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 3.2;
Matches with a red card – 0 out of 12;
Matches with a penalty – 1 out of 12.
