Why Crvena Zvezda are favourites for the match
The gap in the betting line is big: 1.35 on the hosts against 7.75 on the visitors. And one defeat in Hungary has not yet made the market abandon the obvious difference in class.
• Home advantage. At Stadion Rajko Mitic this season, Crvena Zvezda have already beaten Macva 5:0, Larne 5:0 and Novi Pazar 2:0. So far at home — 12:0.
• Start to the season. Five wins in six competitive matches, with the only slip-up that very 0:1 defeat to Hapoel Beer-Sheva. The aggregate goal difference is 19:2.
• Squad. Rade Krunic, Mirko Ivanic, Aleksandar Katai, Marko Arnautovic, Strahinja Erakovic, Nayair Tiknizyan — in terms of names and depth, the Serbs have the edge.
• European experience. For Crvena Zvezda, qualifying matches like this have long stopped being something exotic. The team regularly play in the main stages of European competitions.
• Visitors' absentees. Matan Baltaxa is suspended, several defenders remain out, and Kings Kangwa left for Panathinaikos shortly before this tie.
Form and Line-up Crvena Zvezda
If we leave the trip to Sombathely aside, the start made by Dejan Stankovic's team has been almost flawless. Macva — 5:0, Larne — 4:0 and 5:0, Vojvodina — 3:1, and now 2:0 against Novi Pazar. Five wins in six competitive matches and only two goals conceded.
The problem appeared precisely when the opponent stopped giving up space. Crvena Zvezda like to start attacks on the ground, stretch the pitch through the flanks and push their full-backs high. Hapoel Beer-Sheva answered that by pressing the first pass. Luckassen made one mistake — and that was enough for the only goal.
After the break, the Serbs added more players in attack, but it did not become any easier. And that is already a question not about surnames, but about the attack itself. Against ten men, you can keep the ball around the penalty area as much as you like, but someone still has to open up the block with a pass or off-ball movement. A week ago, that player was not found.
Stankovic used the match against Novi Pazar properly: he won 2:0 and also gave a breather to most of the team who started the first meeting with Hapoel Beer-Sheva. So any possible problems for the hosts can no longer be explained by fatigue alone. There should be enough freshness.
Key numbers:
Five wins in six competitive matches in the new season, goal difference — 19:2.
In the first match against Hapoel Beer-Sheva — 58% possession, 19 shots, seven on target and eight corners.
After the defeat in Sombathely, the team beat Novi Pazar 2:0, with the first-choice side receiving notable rotation.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Matheus Lima Magalhaes — Young-woo Seol, Derrick Luckassen, Strahinja Erakovic, Nayair Tiknizyan — Rade Krunic, Mohammed Abu Fani — Osman Bukari, Mirko Ivanic, Muhammed Cham — Marko Arnautovic.
Out: —.
Form and Line-up Hapoel Beer-Sheva
The Israeli champions have already found themselves in a similar situation in this qualifying campaign. In the second round, Hapoel Beer-Sheva lost 1:2 to Vikingur in Reykjavik, then won the return leg 2:0. Now it is the other way round: Ran Kozuch's team already have the advantage, and they have no need to take risks at all.
The Israelis play their home European matches at a neutral venue in Hungary's Sombathely, so they did not have a real home-ground advantage a week ago either. But the game plan worked. First, Hapoel Beer-Sheva went to press, forced their opponents into a mistake and scored. Then they dropped deeper. After Baltaxa's sending-off, they had to drop even further — and the team still held out.
The attack is more complicated. Kings Kangwa, one of the most prominent midfielders last season, has already left for Panathinaikos. So long positional moves do not currently look like Hapoel Beer-Sheva's main weapon. They are much more comfortable winning the ball, breaking forward quickly and immediately looking for Javon East, Igor Zlatanovic or Zahi Ahmed.
There are personnel problems ahead of the return leg too. Baltaxa is automatically out after his sending-off. Pedro Amador, who managed to come on late in the first meeting, is now among the injured along with Djibril Diop and Joao Victor. The situation on the left of defence is particularly awkward — that is exactly where Bukari will keep attacking.
Key numbers:
In the first match against Crvena Zvezda — 42% possession, seven shots, two on target and one goal.
From the 60th minute, the team played with a man fewer and still kept a clean sheet.
After the win over Crvena Zvezda on 4 August, there have been no competitive matches. The new Israeli league season starts on 22 August.
Probable line-up (4-3-3): Ofir Marciano — Guy Mizrahi, Miguel Vitor, Itay Rotman, Ofir Davidzada — Niv Yehoshuha, Lucas de Souza Ventura, Eliel Peretz — Javon East, Zahi Ahmed, Igor Zlatanovic.
Out: Matan Baltaxa — suspended; Djibril Diop, Pedro Amador, Joao Victor — injured.
