The return-leg Europa League 2025/26 play-off tie between Crvena zvezda (Serbia) and Lille (France) will take place on 26 February at the Rajko Mitic Stadium in Belgrade. The first leg finished 1:0 to Crvena zvezda. Crvena zvezda vs Lille: prediction, betting odds and statistics.
Crvena zvezda
The Serbian side surprised in the first leg, winning 1:0 away to Lille, a team currently in the top six of Ligue 1. It is worth noting that the French outfit did not produce anything surprising in that match, while the hosts were far more convincing in the final third than their opponents and clearly outperformed Lille on xG – 2.20:0.41. Interestingly, that was Crvena zvezda’s fifth win in their last six Europa League games, and each of those victories finished by the same 1:0 scoreline. It should also be noted that the club have only reached the round of 16 in this competition once before, doing so in the 2021/22 season.
- A maximum of two goals were scored in the previous seven matches in this tournament.
- At least one of the sides failed to score in six of Crvena zvezda’s last seven Europa League games.
- On home soil, the hosts are unbeaten in six straight matches in this competition (four wins and two draws).
Potential Crvena zvezda Lineup (4-4-2)*
Mateus – Franklin Tebo, Nair Tiknizyan, Rodrigao, Strahinja Erakovic – Rade Krunic, Vladimir Lucic, Seol Young-woo, Tomas Hendel – Bruno Duarte, Yai Enem.
Midfielder Vladimir Lucic is suspended.
Lille
The team produced nothing in the home leg and were deservedly beaten. Now they must win away by two goals or more to reach the next round of the competition. If they manage to win by a one-goal margin, the tie will go to extra time. It should be noted that Lille have lost three of their last four Europa League matches. Lille have only reached the round of 16 in this tournament once before, and that was back in 2010.
- The side’s run without a draw in this competition stands at 13 matches (five wins and eight defeats).
- At least one of the sides failed to score in five of Lille’s previous six Europa League matches.
- The club have lost five of their last six away games in this tournament.
Potential Lille Lineup (4-4-2)*
Berke Ozer – Aissa Mandi, Ayyoub Bouaddi, Romain Perraud, Natan Ngoy – Gaetan Perrin, Ngalayel Mukau, Benjamin Andre, Felix Correia – Matias Fernandez-Pardo, Haukon Haraldsson.
Injuries rule out striker Hamza Igamane (out for the season), midfielders Ethan Mbappe and Nabil Bentaleb, defenders Thomas Meunier and Ousmane Toure, as well as goalkeeper Marc-Aurel Caillard.
Referee
Anthony Taylor (England)
Matches – 6 (international fixtures, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 24;
Yellow cards per match – 4;
Red cards shown – 0;
Fouls per match – 22;
Penalties – 33%.
Crvena zvezda vs Lille: Match Prediction
One accurate strike from the Serbian side decided the first leg. There is a strong chance the return fixture will also be tight, with very few clear-cut opportunities. We will not risk backing either team to win, as both sides are likely to prioritise defence. That applies especially to the hosts, who should sit deep and play to the first-leg result.
Crvena zvezda have not scored more than once in their last 10 Europa League matches. In their last six games in this tournament, they have conceded just one goal. Lille have not scored more than once in their previous four matches in this competition. Moreover, away from home the French side have now gone five straight Europa League games without scoring at least twice. No more than two goals were also scored in four of Lille’s last five away matches in this tournament.
Prediction: Under 2.5 goals
* For each team, the starting XI from their previous match in this tournament is listed.
