Odds overview
Liverpool are favourites to win at 1.57, while the draw is available at 4.40 and a Crystal Palace win at 5.40. In the goals market, Over 2.5 at 1.55 is considerably shorter than Under 2.5 at 2.35. Crystal Palace (-1.5) are offered at 8.00 and Liverpool (-1.5) at 2.45 — odds that reflect a substantial advantage for the visitors.
Why Liverpool are favourites
Bookmakers make Liverpool clear favourites: an away win is available at 1.57, with the draw at 4.40. A Crystal Palace win is offered at 5.40.
- Liverpool have consistently picked up points away from home: they have won their last three Premier League away matches, having drawn the one before that.
- Crystal Palace have struggled to pick up points at home: they have lost four of their last five Premier League matches at Selhurst Park.
Form and Line-up Crystal Palace
Last Thursday, Crystal Palace drew 1:1 with Hoffenheim in the UEFA Europa League, a match that took its toll. Their defending in the Premier League has been poor, too: they lost 0:2 away to Tottenham Hotspur. That was the Eagles' third successive Premier League defeat without scoring. After nine matches, they have conceded more goals than any other side, averaging 2.33 per game.
- Crystal Palace have had fewer than 13.5 shots in 9 of their last 10 Premier League matches.
- Crystal Palace have scored fewer than 3.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 matches in all official competitions.
- There have been fewer than 11.5 corners in 8 of Crystal Palace's last 10 Premier League home matches.
Probable line-up (3-4-2-1): Dean Henderson, Chris Richards, Axel Disasi, Jaydee Canvot, Óscar Mingueza, Tyrick Mitchell, Daichi Kamada, Adam Wharton, Dwight McNeil, Yéremy Pino, Jørgen Strand Larsen
Absentees: Takehiro Tomiyasu, Chadi Riad, Ismaila Sarr (injured), Jean-Philippe Mateta (suspended)
Form and Line-up Liverpool
Liverpool lost 2:3 away to Fenerbahce in the UEFA Champions League in midweek, despite leading 2:1 in the second half. It was Andoni Iraola's side's second successive defeat in all competitions, following a 0:1 Premier League loss to Arsenal. Before those setbacks, Liverpool beat Brighton & Hove Albion 2:0 at home. Even so, they have avoided defeat in 7 of their last 10 matches in all official competitions.
- Liverpool's opponents have taken fewer than 4.5 corners in 9 of Liverpool's last 10 Premier League away matches.
- Fewer than 3.5 goals have been scored in 8 of Liverpool's last 10 Premier League matches.
- Opponents have had fewer than 9.5 shots on target against Liverpool in each of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Alisson, Ronald Araújo, Jérémy Jacquet, Virgil van Dijk, Milos Kerkez, Trey Nyoni, Alexis Mac Allister, Cody Gakpo, Florian Wirtz, Bradley Barcola, Alexander Isak
Absentees: Jeremie Frimpong, Giovanni Leoni, Conor Bradley, Ryan Gravenberch, Hugo Ekitike (injured)
The teams' chances
The margin-free estimate gives Liverpool a 60.7% chance of winning, with fair odds of 1.65 against average odds of 1.57. The draw accounts for 21.7%: 4.62 against 4.40. A Crystal Palace win is rated at 17.6%, with corresponding odds of 5.67 and 5.40.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 5.40 | 5.67 | 17.6% |
| Draw | 4.40 | 4.62 | 21.7% |
| Liverpool win | 1.57 | 1.65 | 60.7% |
Total goals betting analysis
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 at 1.55 is shorter than Under 2.5 at 2.35. At 3.5 goals, the balance reverses: Under 3.5 at 1.60 is considerably more likely than Over 3.5 at 2.35.
| Goals line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.35 | 1.55 |
| 3.5 | 1.60 | 2.35 |
Handicap betting analysis
At the -1.5 handicap line, Liverpool (-1.5) at 2.45 are rated much more likely than Crystal Palace (-1.5) at 8.00. At +1.5, Liverpool (+1.5) at 1.04 are favoured over Crystal Palace (+1.5) at 1.50. At -1, Liverpool (-1) are offered at 1.92 against 7.00 for Crystal Palace (-1); at +1, Liverpool (+1) are at 1.05 against 1.88 for Crystal Palace (+1). At a handicap of 0, Liverpool (0) at 1.22 are shorter than Crystal Palace (0) at 3.85.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 8.00 | -1.5 | 2.45 |
| 1.50 | 1.5 | 1.04 |
| 7.00 | -1 | 1.92 |
| 1.88 | 1 | 1.05 |
| 3.85 | 0 | 1.22 |
Both teams to score betting analysis
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.63 looks more likely than Both teams to score — No at 2.20, meaning the market more strongly expects each team to score at least one goal.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.63 |
| No | 2.20 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
13/10
|
1/5
|
7/50
|
| LeoVegas |
13/10
|
11/50
|
4/25
|
| 888sport |
7/5
|
11/50
|
3/20
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals betting analysis
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team-goals lines: Crystal Palace — 1 goal; Liverpool — 2 goals.
Crystal Palace team goals
For Crystal Palace, Over 0.5 goals at 1.48 is favoured over Under 0.5 at 2.55. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 at 1.70 is shorter than Over 1 at 2.10; at 1.5, the gap is wider, with Under 1.5 at 1.32 against Over 1.5 at 3.05.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.55 | 0.5 | 1.48 |
| 1.70 | 1 | 2.10 |
| 1.32 | 1.5 | 3.05 |
Liverpool team goals
For Liverpool, Over 0.5 goals at 1.06 is considerably more likely than Under 0.5 at 6.70. At the 1.5-goal line, Over 1.5 at 1.55 is shorter than Under 1.5 at 2.40; at 2 goals, the odds are close — Under 2 at 1.80 and Over 2 at 1.95. At 2.5 goals, Under 2.5 at 1.47 is favoured over Over 2.5 at 2.60.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 6.70 | 0.5 | 1.06 |
| 2.40 | 1.5 | 1.55 |
| 1.80 | 2 | 1.95 |
| 1.47 | 2.5 | 2.60 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Tony Harrington (England)
Matches — 16 (Premier League, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 21;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 2.1;
Matches with a red card — 2 of 16;
Matches with a penalty — 3 of 16.
