Odds overview
Newcastle United have a slight edge in the 1X2 market: an away win is 2.35, compared with 2.90 for a home win and 3.60 for a draw. Over 2.5 goals is offered at 1.62, against 2.30 for Under 2.5 goals, suggesting expectations of a high-scoring match. In the main handicap market, Newcastle United (0) are shorter than Crystal Palace (0): 1.72 versus 2.12.
Why Newcastle United are favourites
The bookmakers favour Newcastle United: an away win is available at 2.35, a Crystal Palace win at 2.90 and a draw at 3.60.
• Crystal Palace were thrashed 5:0 by Brighton & Hove Albion in the last Premier League round.
• Crystal Palace have the tougher schedule: their UEFA Europa League commitments leave the hosts just two full days to recover.
Form and Line-up Crystal Palace
In previous rounds, Crystal Palace beat Nottingham Forest 3:1 at home but then suffered a heavy 0:5 away defeat to Brighton & Hove Albion. This week, they played another UEFA Europa League league-phase match, drawing 2:2 with Beşiktaş in Istanbul. The number of goals conceded has also been affected by the absence of first-choice goalkeeper Dean Henderson, who kept many clean sheets for Crystal Palace last season and has not played since the third Premier League round. He has only just been removed from the injury list, and the captain still faces a fitness test.
- Fewer than 11.5 corners were taken in 8 of Crystal Palace’s last 10 home Premier League matches
- Fewer than 3.5 offsides were recorded in 9 of Crystal Palace’s last 10 home league games
- At least one first-half goal was scored in six of Crystal Palace’s seven Premier League matches this season
Probable Crystal Palace line-up (3-4-2-1): Walter Benítez, Jaydee Canvot, Chris Richards, Honest Ahanor, Anan Khalaili, Adam Wharton, Dwight McNeil, Tyrick Mitchell, Daichi Kamada, Yeremy Pino, Eddie Nketiah
Absentees: Chadi Riad, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Quinten Timber (injured); Jørgen Strand Larsen, Dean Henderson (doubtful)
Form and Line-up Newcastle United
Newcastle United have lost their last two league matches, first away to Coventry City (1:4) and then at home to Aston Villa (0:1). Even so, they have no major absences. They are perhaps missing Anthony Elanga’s pace, while even a promotion to the starting line-up has not helped Matias Fernandez-Pardo score.
- Fewer than 11.5 corners were recorded in 8 of Newcastle United’s last 10 home Premier League matches
- More than 4.5 yellow cards were recorded in 9 of Newcastle United’s last 10 home Premier League matches
- At least one first-half goal was scored in six of Newcastle United’s seven Premier League games this season
Probable Newcastle United line-up (4-2-3-1): Lukáš Horníček, Lewis Miley, Malick Thiaw, Sven Botman, Lewis Hall, Joelinton, Nicolás González, Matias Fernandez-Pardo, Joe Willock, Harvey Barnes, Yoane Wissa
Absentees: Anthony Elanga, Ewen Jaouen, Jacob Ramsey, Tino Livramento (injured)
The teams’ chances
The margin-free estimate gives Newcastle United a 40.6% chance of an away win: the average odds are 2.35 and the fair odds are 2.46. A Crystal Palace home win has a 32.9% chance, with average odds of 2.90 and fair odds of 3.04; a draw has a 26.5% chance, with odds of 3.60 and 3.77 respectively.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 2.90 | 3.04 | 32.9% |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.77 | 26.5% |
| Newcastle United win | 2.35 | 2.46 | 40.6% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals has shorter odds than Under 2.5 goals — 1.62 versus 2.30. At 3.5 goals, the balance changes: Under 3.5 goals is 1.55 and Over 3.5 goals is 2.40.
| Goals line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.30 | 1.62 |
| 3.5 | 1.55 | 2.40 |
Handicap prediction
In the handicap market, Crystal Palace (-1.5) are 4.60 and Newcastle United (-1.5) are 3.95; at the 1.5 line, Newcastle United (+1.5) have shorter odds at 1.14, compared with 1.20 for Crystal Palace (+1.5). At the -1 line, the odds are 4.30 for Crystal Palace (-1) and 3.25 for Newcastle United (-1); at the +1 line, they are 1.30 and 1.20 respectively. In the zero-handicap market, Newcastle United (0) are 1.72 versus 2.12 for Crystal Palace (0).
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 4.60 | -1.5 | 3.95 |
| 1.20 | 1.5 | 1.14 |
| 4.30 | -1 | 3.25 |
| 1.30 | 1 | 1.20 |
| 2.12 | 0 | 1.72 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is offered at 1.52, considerably shorter than the 2.45 for Both teams to score — No, which covers a result where at least one team fails to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.52 |
| No | 2.45 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
57/100
|
29/100
|
2/5
|
| 888sport |
53/100
|
3/10
|
2/5
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
The bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Crystal Palace — 1.5 goals; Newcastle United — 1.5 goals.
Crystal Palace team goal total
For Crystal Palace’s team goal total, Over 0.5 goals is 1.25 versus 3.70 for Under 0.5 goals; at the 1-goal line, Over 1 goal is 1.50 and Under 1 goal is 2.55. At 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 goals has shorter odds at 1.63 versus 2.20 for Over 1.5 goals, while at 2 goals, Under 2 goals is 1.25 and Over 2 goals is 3.55.
| Under | Team goal total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.70 | 0.5 | 1.25 |
| 2.55 | 1 | 1.50 |
| 1.63 | 1.5 | 2.20 |
| 1.25 | 2 | 3.55 |
Newcastle United team goal total
For Newcastle United’s team goal total, Over 0.5 goals is 1.17 versus 4.20 for Under 0.5 goals, while Over 1 goal is 1.35 versus 3.00 for Under 1 goal. At the 1.5-goal line, the odds are close: Under 1.5 goals is 1.82 and Over 1.5 goals is 1.92. At 2 goals, Under 2 goals is 1.35 and Over 2 goals is 2.95.
| Under | Team goal total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.20 | 0.5 | 1.17 |
| 3.00 | 1 | 1.35 |
| 1.82 | 1.5 | 1.92 |
| 1.35 | 2 | 2.95 |
