Odds overview
Monaco are clear favourites: a Monaco win is available at 1.50, while the draw is quoted at 4.70 and a CSKA Sofia win at 6.10. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.68 is favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.20. In the Draw No Bet market, Monaco (0) at 1.17 are considered much more likely than CSKA Sofia (0) at 4.20.
Why Monaco are favourites
A CSKA Sofia win is available at 6.10, while a Monaco win is at 1.50. The market clearly favours the visitors, but the selected Both Teams to Score bet does not require us to pick the winner.
- Monaco have avoided defeat in 9 of their last 10 matches in all competitions. That run of results directly supports the shorter odds on an away win.
- CSKA Sofia's opponents have scored at least once in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions. That run supports the expectation of a Monaco goal and fits with their status as favourites.
Form and Line-up CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia come into their European opener after a 3:2 win over CSKA 1948 in the Parva Liga. That result itself supports the prospect of a home goal, which matters for a Both Teams to Score bet.
- CSKA Sofia's opponents have scored at least once in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- CSKA Sofia have scored at least once in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Over 1.5 goals has landed in all 10 of CSKA Sofia's last 10 matches in all competitions.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Fedor Lapoukhov, Tamimou Ouorou, Teodor Ivanov, Pastor, Ángelo Martino, Stefano Sensi, Bruno Jordão, Max Ebong Ngome, Léo Pereira, Joël Zwarts, Ioannis Pittas
Form and Line-up Monaco
Before travelling to Sofia, Monaco drew 2:2 at home to Toulouse in Ligue 1. The French side face two away trips in four days — after the match in Sofia, they will meet Lorient on 18 October. The schedule itself does not point to any specific changes to the starting line-up, but it adds uncertainty over the visitors' selection.
- Monaco have scored at least once in 9 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Monaco's opponents have scored at least once in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Over 1.5 goals has landed in 8 of Monaco's last 10 matches in all competitions.
Probable line-up (4-4-2): Lukáš Hrádecký, Vanderson, Sadibou Sané, Eric Dyer, Nazinho, Lamine Camara, Denis Zakaria, Edan Diop, Alexandr Golovin, Mathys Detourbet, Matthis Abline
The teams' chances
On a margin-free basis, a CSKA Sofia win has a 15.7% chance, with odds of 6.10 and average fair odds of 6.36. The draw has a 20.4% chance: 4.70 compared with fair odds of 4.90. A Monaco win leads at 63.9%, with odds of 1.50 and fair odds of 1.57, respectively.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia to win | 6.10 | 6.36 | 15.7% |
| Draw | 4.70 | 4.90 | 20.4% |
| Monaco to win | 1.50 | 1.57 | 63.9% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.68 is favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.20. At 3.5 goals, the picture is reversed: Under 3.5 goals is available at 1.50 and Over 3.5 goals at 2.50.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.20 | 1.68 |
| 3.5 | 1.50 | 2.50 |
Handicap prediction
Among the Monaco handicaps, Monaco (-1.5) is available at 2.25 and Monaco (-1) at 1.78. CSKA Sofia (+1.5) is offered at 1.60 and CSKA Sofia (+1) at 2.05. In the zero-handicap market, Monaco (0) at 1.17 are rated considerably more likely than CSKA Sofia (0) at 4.20.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2.25 | |
| 1.60 | 1.5 | |
| -1 | 1.78 | |
| 2.05 | 1 | |
| 4.20 | 0 | 1.17 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both Teams to Score – Yes at 1.78 is considered more likely than Both Teams to Score – No at 1.98; the latter means that at least one team will not score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.78 |
| No | 1.98 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
163/100
|
9/50
|
13/100
|
| William Hill |
17/10
|
1/5
|
11/100
|
| 888sport |
17/10
|
1/5
|
11/100
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: 0.5 goals for CSKA Sofia and 2 goals for Monaco.
CSKA Sofia team total goals
For CSKA Sofia's team total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.60 is favoured over Under 0.5 goals at 2.25. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 goal at 1.50 has shorter odds than Over 1 goal at 2.50, while at 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 goals at 1.25 is considered much more likely than Over 1.5 goals at 3.55.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.25 | 0.5 | 1.60 |
| 1.50 | 1 | 2.50 |
| 1.25 | 1.5 | 3.55 |
Monaco team total goals
For Monaco's team total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.06 is much more likely than Under 0.5 goals at 6.60. At the 1.5-goal line, Over 1.5 goals at 1.55 is favoured over Under 1.5 goals at 2.40; at 2 goals, Under 2 goals at 1.78 is slightly more likely than Over 2 goals at 1.98, while at 2.5 goals, Under 2.5 goals at 1.45 is considerably more likely than Over 2.5 goals at 2.65.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 6.60 | 0.5 | 1.06 |
| 2.40 | 1.5 | 1.55 |
| 1.78 | 2 | 1.98 |
| 1.45 | 2.5 | 2.65 |
