Odds overview
Monaco are clear favourites at 1.50 to win, while the draw is quoted at 4.70 and a CSKA Sofia win at 6.10. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.68 is favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.20. For handicap (0), Monaco at 1.17 are considered much more likely than CSKA Sofia at 4.20.
Why Monaco are favourites
CSKA Sofia are available at 6.10 to win, compared with 1.50 for Monaco. The market strongly favours the visitors, but the selected both-teams-to-score bet does not require picking a winner.
- Monaco have avoided defeat in 9 of their last 10 matches in all competitions. That run of results directly supports the shorter odds on an away win.
- CSKA Sofia's opponents have scored at least once in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions. That run supports the expectation of a Monaco goal and fits their status as favourites.
Form and Line-up CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia enter their European campaign following a 3:2 win over CSKA 1948 in the Parva Liga. That result in itself supports the prospect of a home goal, which matters for a both-teams-to-score bet.
- CSKA Sofia's opponents have scored at least once in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- CSKA Sofia have scored at least once in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Over 1.5 goals has landed in all 10 of CSKA Sofia's last 10 matches in all competitions.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Fedor Lapoukhov, Tamimou Ouorou, Teodor Ivanov, Pastor, Angelo Martino, Stefano Sensi, Bruno Jordao, Max Ebong, Leo Pereira, Joel Zwarts, Ioannis Pittas
Form and Line-up Monaco
Before travelling to Sofia, Monaco drew 2:2 at home with Toulouse in Ligue 1. The French side face two away matches in four days — after the match in Sofia, they will meet Lorient on 18 October; the schedule itself does not point to any specific changes to the starting line-up, but it adds uncertainty over the visitors' selection.
- Monaco have scored at least once in 9 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Monaco's opponents have scored at least once in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Over 1.5 goals has landed in 8 of Monaco's last 10 matches in all competitions.
Probable line-up (4-4-2): Lukas Hradecky, Vanderson, Sadibou Sane, Eric Dyer, Nazinho, Lamine Camara, Denis Zakaria, Edan Diop, Alexandr Golovin, Mathys Detourbet, Matthis Abline
Teams' chances
On a margin-free basis, a CSKA Sofia win has a 15.7% probability, with odds of 6.10 and average fair odds of 6.36. The draw is rated at 20.4%, with odds of 4.70 against fair odds of 4.90. A Monaco win leads at 63.9%; the corresponding odds are 1.50 and 1.57, respectively.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia win | 6.10 | 6.36 | 15.7% |
| Draw | 4.70 | 4.90 | 20.4% |
| Monaco win | 1.50 | 1.57 | 63.9% |
Total goals betting
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.68 is favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.20. At the 3.5-goal line, it is the other way round: Under 3.5 goals is available at 1.50 and Over 3.5 goals at 2.50.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.20 | 1.68 |
| 3.5 | 1.50 | 2.50 |
Handicap betting
Among Monaco's handicaps, Monaco (-1.5) are available at 2.25 and Monaco (-1) at 1.78. For CSKA Sofia, CSKA Sofia (+1.5) are offered at 1.60 and CSKA Sofia (+1) at 2.05. With a handicap of 0, Monaco (0) at 1.17 are rated much more likely than CSKA Sofia (0) at 4.20.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2.25 | |
| 1.60 | 1.5 | |
| -1 | 1.78 | |
| 2.05 | 1 | |
| 4.20 | 0 | 1.17 |
Both teams to score betting
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.78 is considered more likely than Both teams to score — No at 1.98; the latter means at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.78 |
| No | 1.98 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
7/4
|
9/50
|
1/10
|
| William Hill |
3/2
|
1/5
|
3/25
|
| 888sport |
3/2
|
1/5
|
3/25
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals betting
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: CSKA Sofia — 0.5 goals; Monaco — 2 goals.
CSKA Sofia team total goals
For CSKA Sofia's team total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.60 is favoured over Under 0.5 goals at 2.25. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 goal at 1.50 has shorter odds than Over 1 goal at 2.50, while at 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 goals at 1.25 is considered much more likely than Over 1.5 goals at 3.55.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.25 | 0.5 | 1.60 |
| 1.50 | 1 | 2.50 |
| 1.25 | 1.5 | 3.55 |
Monaco team total goals
For Monaco's team total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.06 is much more likely than Under 0.5 goals at 6.60. At the 1.5-goal line, Over 1.5 goals at 1.55 is favoured over Under 1.5 goals at 2.40; at 2 goals, Under 2 goals at 1.78 is slightly favoured over Over 2 goals at 1.98, while at 2.5 goals, Under 2.5 goals at 1.45 is considered much more likely than Over 2.5 goals at 2.65.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 6.60 | 0.5 | 1.06 |
| 2.40 | 1.5 | 1.55 |
| 1.78 | 2 | 1.98 |
| 1.45 | 2.5 | 2.65 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Joao Goncalves (Portugal)
Matches — 12 (international fixtures, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 23;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4;
Matches with red cards — 2 of 12;
Matches with penalties — 5 of 12.
