Betting Tip
In Baku, nobody dared to make the first move, and that is the main key to the return leg. Qarabag FK have kept clean sheets in three European matches in a row, with Mateusz Kochalski not picking the ball out of his net once. A defence like that cannot be broken down by desire alone.
CSKA Sofia have exactly the opposite problem. A blank against Slavia in the opening league round, while the Bulgarians only forced the issue against Botev Plovdiv in the 90th and 92nd minutes, having lost the whole first half on chances. Hristo Yanev's attack works in bursts. Against a compact low block, bursts will not be enough.
The visitors will not race forward either. Qarabag FK changed half their squad in the summer, and Zakaria Sawo, Jaly Mouaddib and Bence Varkonyi are still fitting into Gurban Gurbanov's model. The Azerbaijan championship only starts on 14 August, so the visitors have less match sharpness than the two thrashings of Vestri (3:0, 3:0) suggested.
Those two heavy wins are deceptive results. The Icelanders and the Sofia side are in different weight classes. Against class, Qarabag FK sit deep and wait for the counterattack: a year ago, the Azerbaijanis conceded six goals apiece against Liverpool and Newcastle. At home, CSKA Sofia will have the ball, and that is exactly the scenario that suits the visitors.
The line-ups balance each other out. Stefano Sensi controls midfield, Jean-Philippe Gbamin anchors the centre of defence, and Ioannis Pittas, with three goals in qualifying, latches on to any loose ball. But Abdellah Zoubir and Kady open up Pastor's left flank — that is where the visitors' most dangerous attacks came from in the first meeting.
Almost complete parity in the odds after the goalless draw in Baku means one thing: both sides will protect their goal rather than get dragged into a shootout. A draw in normal time takes the tie into extra time, and that scenario suits both Sofia and Aghdam. We are taking the draw at 3.30.
