Odds overview
Portugal are favourites in the 1X2 market: a Portugal win is available at 2.05, while a Denmark win and a draw are around 3.45–3.70. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.72 is favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.12. For a handicap of 0, Portugal Draw No Bet at 1.53 looks more likely than Denmark Draw No Bet at 2.50.
Why Portugal are favourites
Bookmakers favour the visitors: a Portugal win is offered at 2.05 (a 46.5% probability excluding margin), a draw at 3.70 and a Denmark win at 3.45.
- Portugal began their UEFA Nations League campaign with two successive wins, beating Wales at home (1:0) and Norway away (2:1).
- Denmark have already slipped up early in the competition, losing 2:3 to Norway, although they then beat Wales (2:0).
- Portugal have conceded no more than one goal in nine of their last ten away UEFA Nations League matches.
Form and Line-up Denmark
Denmark were involved in a high-scoring contest with Norway in their opening UEFA Nations League match, coming back from 0:2 before ultimately losing 2:3 to a decisive goal from Erling Haaland. Their second match went better — a 2:0 win featuring an own goal by Ben Davies and a goal from Gustav Isaksen. Denmark are third in Group A with three points.
- Denmark have taken more than 3.5 corners in nine of their last ten home UEFA Nations League matches.
- Fewer than 4.5 yellow cards have been shown in five of Denmark's last six matches.
- Denmark's opponents have scored fewer than 1.5 goals in nine of Denmark's last ten home UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable Denmark line-up (4-2-3-1): Filip Jorgensen, Rasmus Kristensen, Joachim Andersen, Oliver Provstgaard, Joakim Maehle, Pierre-Emile Højbjerg, Morten Hjulmand, Gustav Isaksen, Mikkel Damsgaard, Mohamed Daramy, Rasmus Højlund.
Unavailable: Albert Grønbæk, Alexander Bah, Andreas Christensen, Jens Stage, Kasper Dolberg, Mathias Jensen, Patrick Dorgu, William Osula, Christian Eriksen, Albert Grønbæk, Christian Nørgaard (all injured).
Form and Line-up Portugal
Portugal have made a successful start to the UEFA Nations League under new coach Jorge Jesus. They first beat Wales (1:0), then edged past Norway (2:1), despite Norway having 68% possession and generating 2.52 xG. Jesus's team lead Group A with six points.
- More than 8.5 corners have been taken in nine of Portugal's last ten away UEFA Nations League matches.
- Fewer than 3.5 offsides have been recorded in nine of Portugal's last ten away UEFA Nations League matches.
- Portugal have taken more than 11.5 shots in eight of their last ten away UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable Portugal line-up (4-4-2): Diogo Costa, João Cancelo, Rúben Dias, Renato Veiga, Nuno Mendes, Rafael Leão, João Neves, João Palhinha, Pedro Neto, João Félix, Gonçalo Ramos.
Unavailable: Francisco Conceição, Bruno Fernandes (both injured).
The teams' chances
The margin-free assessment gives Portugal a 46.5% chance at fair odds of 2.15, compared with 27.7% for Denmark (3.62) and 25.8% for a draw (3.88). Average odds: Denmark to win — 3.45, draw — 3.70, Portugal to win — 2.05.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denmark to win | 3.45 | 3.62 | 27.7% |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.88 | 25.8% |
| Portugal to win | 2.05 | 2.15 | 46.5% |
Total goals prediction
Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.72, compared with 2.12 for Under 2.5 goals. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 goals is favoured at 1.45, while Over 3.5 goals is offered at 2.60.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.12 | 1.72 |
| 3.5 | 1.45 | 2.60 |
Handicap prediction
Denmark (-1.5) is available at 6.10 and Portugal (-1.5) at 3.45; at the +1.5 handicap line, the odds are 1.25 for Denmark (+1.5) and 1.08 for Portugal (+1.5). At the -1 line, Portugal (-1) at 2.80 has shorter odds than Denmark (-1) at 5.40, while at the +1 line Portugal (+1) is 1.10, compared with 1.40 for Denmark (+1). Portugal Draw No Bet, with a handicap of 0, is available at 1.53 and Denmark Draw No Bet, also with a handicap of 0, at 2.50.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 6.10 | -1.5 | 3.45 |
| 1.25 | 1.5 | 1.08 |
| 5.40 | -1 | 2.80 |
| 1.40 | 1 | 1.10 |
| 2.50 | 0 | 1.53 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is available at 1.60, markedly shorter than Both teams to score — No at 2.25, so goals from both sides are considered more likely.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.60 |
| No | 2.25 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
73/100
|
29/100
|
3/10
|
| William Hill |
3/4
|
3/10
|
3/10
|
| 888sport |
3/4
|
3/10
|
3/10
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Denmark — 1 goal, Portugal — 1.5 goals.
Denmark team total goals
Denmark team total goals: Over 0.5 goals is available at 1.35, compared with 3.00 for Under 0.5 goals; at the 1-goal line, Over 1 goal is 1.68 and Under 1 goal is 2.12. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 goals has shorter odds at 1.50, while Over 1.5 goals is 2.50.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.00 | 0.5 | 1.35 |
| 2.12 | 1 | 1.68 |
| 1.50 | 1.5 | 2.50 |
Portugal team total goals
Portugal team total goals: Over 0.5 goals at 1.14 and Over 1 goal at 1.30 have markedly shorter odds than Under 0.5 goals at 4.60 and Under 1 goal at 3.25. At the 1.5-goal line, the odds are almost equal: Under 1.5 goals — 1.85, Over 1.5 goals — 1.90. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 goals is favoured at 1.40, compared with 2.75 for Over 2 goals.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.60 | 0.5 | 1.14 |
| 3.25 | 1 | 1.30 |
| 1.85 | 1.5 | 1.90 |
| 1.40 | 2 | 2.75 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Mykola Balakin (Ukraine)
Matches – 10 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match – 23;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 3.7;
Matches with a red card – 0 out of 10;
Matches with a penalty – 2 out of 10.
