Odds overview
Portugal are favourites in the 1X2 market: a Portugal win is available at 2.05, while a Denmark win and a draw are around 3.45–3.70. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.72 is favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.12. For a handicap of 0, Portugal Draw No Bet at 1.53 looks more likely than Denmark Draw No Bet at 2.50.
Why Portugal are favourites
Bookmakers favour the visitors: a Portugal win is offered at 2.05 (a 46.5% probability excluding margin), a draw at 3.70 and a Denmark win at 3.45.
- Portugal began their UEFA Nations League campaign with two successive wins, beating Wales at home (1:0) and Norway away (2:1).
- Denmark have already slipped up early in the competition, losing 2:3 to Norway, although they then beat Wales (2:0).
- Portugal have conceded no more than one goal in nine of their last ten away UEFA Nations League matches.
Form and Line-up Denmark
Denmark were involved in a high-scoring contest with Norway in their opening UEFA Nations League match, coming back from 0:2 before ultimately losing 2:3 to a decisive goal from Erling Haaland. Their second match went better — a 2:0 win featuring an own goal by Ben Davies and a goal from Gustav Isaksen. Denmark are third in Group A with three points.
- Denmark have taken more than 3.5 corners in nine of their last ten home UEFA Nations League matches.
- Fewer than 4.5 yellow cards have been shown in five of Denmark's last six matches.
- Denmark's opponents have scored fewer than 1.5 goals in nine of Denmark's last ten home UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable Denmark line-up (4-2-3-1): Filip Jorgensen, Rasmus Kristensen, Joachim Andersen, Oliver Provstgaard, Joakim Maehle, Pierre-Emile Højbjerg, Morten Hjulmand, Gustav Isaksen, Mikkel Damsgaard, Mohamed Daramy, Rasmus Højlund.
Unavailable: Albert Grønbæk, Alexander Bah, Andreas Christensen, Jens Stage, Kasper Dolberg, Mathias Jensen, Patrick Dorgu, William Osula, Christian Eriksen, Albert Grønbæk, Christian Nørgaard (all injured).
Form and Line-up Portugal
Portugal have made a successful start to the UEFA Nations League under new coach Jorge Jesus. They first beat Wales (1:0), then edged past Norway (2:1), despite Norway having 68% possession and generating 2.52 xG. Jesus's team lead Group A with six points.
- More than 8.5 corners have been taken in nine of Portugal's last ten away UEFA Nations League matches.
- Fewer than 3.5 offsides have been recorded in nine of Portugal's last ten away UEFA Nations League matches.
- Portugal have taken more than 11.5 shots in eight of their last ten away UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable Portugal line-up (4-4-2): Diogo Costa, João Cancelo, Rúben Dias, Renato Veiga, Nuno Mendes, Rafael Leão, João Neves, João Palhinha, Pedro Neto, João Félix, Gonçalo Ramos.
Unavailable: Francisco Conceição, Bruno Fernandes (both injured).
The teams' chances
The margin-free assessment gives Portugal a 46.5% chance at fair odds of 2.15, compared with 27.7% for Denmark (3.62) and 25.8% for a draw (3.88). Average odds: Denmark to win — 3.45, draw — 3.70, Portugal to win — 2.05.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denmark to win | 3.45 | 3.62 | 27.7% |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.88 | 25.8% |
| Portugal to win | 2.05 | 2.15 | 46.5% |
Total goals prediction
Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.72, compared with 2.12 for Under 2.5 goals. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 goals is favoured at 1.45, while Over 3.5 goals is offered at 2.60.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.12 | 1.72 |
| 3.5 | 1.45 | 2.60 |
Handicap prediction
Denmark (-1.5) is available at 6.10 and Portugal (-1.5) at 3.45; at the +1.5 handicap line, the odds are 1.25 for Denmark (+1.5) and 1.08 for Portugal (+1.5). At the -1 line, Portugal (-1) at 2.80 has shorter odds than Denmark (-1) at 5.40, while at the +1 line Portugal (+1) is 1.10, compared with 1.40 for Denmark (+1). Portugal Draw No Bet, with a handicap of 0, is available at 1.53 and Denmark Draw No Bet, also with a handicap of 0, at 2.50.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 6.10 | -1.5 | 3.45 |
| 1.25 | 1.5 | 1.08 |
| 5.40 | -1 | 2.80 |
| 1.40 | 1 | 1.10 |
| 2.50 | 0 | 1.53 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is available at 1.60, markedly shorter than Both teams to score — No at 2.25, so goals from both sides are considered more likely.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.60 |
| No | 2.25 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
91/100
|
1/4
|
1/4
|
| William Hill |
3/4
|
3/10
|
3/10
|
| 888sport |
17/20
|
29/100
|
1/4
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Denmark — 1 goal, Portugal — 1.5 goals.
Denmark team total goals
Denmark team total goals: Over 0.5 goals is available at 1.35, compared with 3.00 for Under 0.5 goals; at the 1-goal line, Over 1 goal is 1.68 and Under 1 goal is 2.12. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 goals has shorter odds at 1.50, while Over 1.5 goals is 2.50.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.00 | 0.5 | 1.35 |
| 2.12 | 1 | 1.68 |
| 1.50 | 1.5 | 2.50 |
Portugal team total goals
Portugal team total goals: Over 0.5 goals at 1.14 and Over 1 goal at 1.30 have markedly shorter odds than Under 0.5 goals at 4.60 and Under 1 goal at 3.25. At the 1.5-goal line, the odds are almost equal: Under 1.5 goals — 1.85, Over 1.5 goals — 1.90. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 goals is favoured at 1.40, compared with 2.75 for Over 2 goals.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.60 | 0.5 | 1.14 |
| 3.25 | 1 | 1.30 |
| 1.85 | 1.5 | 1.90 |
| 1.40 | 2 | 2.75 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Mykola Balakin (Ukraine)
Matches – 10 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match – 23;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 3.7;
Matches with a red card – 0 out of 10;
Matches with a penalty – 2 out of 10.
Mads Hermansen
Joachim Christian Andersen
Joakim Mæhle Pedersen
Oliver Provstgaard
Rasmus Nissen Kristensen
Mikkel Krogh Damsgaard
Morten Blom Due Hjulmand
Pierre-Emile Kordt Højbjerg
Mohamed Hassouni Daramy
Adam Daghim
Rasmus Højlund
Andreas Jungdal
Filip Jörgensen
Anton Gaaei
Victor Nelsson
Mads Bidstrup
Nikolas Terkelsen Nartey
Thomas Jørgensen
Victor Froholdt
Andreas Skov Olsen
Kasper Waarts Thenza Høgh
João Pedro Cavaco Cancelo
Renato Veiga
Rúben Dias
Bruno Miguel Borges Fernandes
Rúben Diogo da Silva Neves
Gonçalo Matias Ramos
Pedro Lomba Neto
Rafael Leão
Rui Tiago Dantas da Silva
Samuel Jumpe Soares
Bernardo Silva
Fábio Daniel Soares Silva
João Félix Sequeira
