Odds overview
Denmark are clear favourites: a home win is available at around 1.50, compared with 4.40 for a draw and 6.80 for a Wales win. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.85 has slightly shorter odds than Under 2.5 goals at 1.95. The Draw No Bet odds of 1.15 for Denmark and 4.50 for Wales show that the market strongly favours the hosts.
Why Denmark are favourites
Bookmakers give the hosts a clear advantage: Denmark are available at 1.50 to win, a draw at 4.40 and Wales at 6.80.
- Wales have struggled to score — they managed no more than one goal in eight of their last ten matches.
- Denmark are at home, and home advantage becomes decisive for them against opponents of lower quality.
- Wales had fewer than 4.5 shots on target in eight of their last ten away matches in the UEFA Nations League. Creating chances against Denmark’s organised defence will be almost impossible.
Form and Line-up Denmark
Denmark lost 2:3 to Norway in the opening round of the UEFA Nations League. They came back from 0:2, but conceded the decisive goal to Erling Haaland in the 74th minute. Denmark played reasonably well — they generated 1.09 xG and scored twice through Damsgaard and Højlund.
- Denmark took more than 3.5 corners in eight of their last ten UEFA Nations League matches.
- Denmark committed fewer than 13.5 fouls in eight of their last ten UEFA Nations League matches.
- There were fewer than 3.5 offsides in eight of Denmark’s last ten UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Filip Jorgensen, Rasmus Kristensen, Joachim Andersen, Oliver Provstgaard, Joakim Mæhle, Morten Hjulmand, Pierre-Emile Højbjerg, Patrick Dorgu, Victor Froholdt, Mikkel Damsgaard, Rasmus Højlund.
Unavailable: Andreas Christensen, Jens Stage, Kasper Dolberg, Mathias Jensen, William Osula (all injured).
Form and Line-up Wales
Wales began the tournament with a narrow 0:1 defeat to Portugal, conceding the only goal in the 22nd minute. They looked lacklustre, managing just one shot on target, two corners and 38% possession.
- There were fewer than 3.5 goals in eight of Wales’s last ten away matches in the UEFA Nations League.
- Wales had fewer than 4.5 shots on target in eight of their last ten away UEFA Nations League matches.
- Wales received more than 1.5 yellow cards in nine of their last ten away UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable line-up (4-4-2): Danny Ward, Neco Williams, Ben Cabango, Ben Davies, Jay Dasilva, David Brooks, Josh Sheehan, Ethan Ampadu, Brennan Johnson, Lewis Koumas, Jordan James.
Unavailable: Dylan Lawlor, Isaak Davies, Joe Rodon, Nathan Broadhead (all injured).
The teams’ chances
Denmark are offered at 1.50 to win, with fair odds of 1.56 and a 64.0% probability. A draw is available at 4.40, with fair odds of 4.58 and a 21.8% probability. Wales are quoted at 6.80 to win, with fair odds of 7.08 and a 14.1% probability.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Denmark win | 1.50 | 1.56 | 64.0% |
| Draw | 4.40 | 4.58 | 21.8% |
| Wales win | 6.80 | 7.08 | 14.1% |
Total goals prediction
In the totals market, Under 2.5 goals is available at 1.95 and Over 2.5 goals at 1.85, giving the over a slight edge. At 3.5 goals, the under is 1.35 and the over 2.85 — the odds favour fewer goals much more clearly.
| Goals line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.95 | 1.85 |
| 3.5 | 1.35 | 2.85 |
Handicap prediction
Denmark (-1.5) are quoted at 2.30, while Wales (+1.5) are 1.57. At the one-goal handicap, Denmark (-1) are available at 1.80 and Wales (+1) at 2.00. Denmark (0) at 1.15 have considerably shorter odds than Wales (0) at 4.50.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.30 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 1.57 | |
| 1.80 | -1 | |
| 1 | 2.00 | |
| 1.15 | 0 | 4.50 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is offered at 1.95, while No is available at 1.80. The odds slightly favour at least one team failing to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.95 |
| No | 1.80 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
13/100
|
9/50
|
163/100
|
| William Hill |
3/20
|
1/4
|
5/4
|
| 888sport |
11/100
|
1/5
|
81/50
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the team goal totals at 2 for Denmark and 0.5 for Wales.
Denmark team total goals
Denmark team total goals: Under 0.5 is available at 6.00 and Over 0.5 at 1.08. At 1.5 goals, the under is 2.15 and the over 1.65; at 2 goals, they are 1.67 and 2.15 respectively. For 2.5 goals, the under is 1.40 and the over 2.70.
| Under | Team goal total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 6.00 | 0.5 | 1.08 |
| 2.15 | 1.5 | 1.65 |
| 1.67 | 2 | 2.15 |
| 1.40 | 2.5 | 2.70 |
Wales team total goals
Wales team total goals: Under 0.5 is available at 2.00 and Over 0.5 at 1.75. At 1 goal, the under is 1.32 and the over 3.10; at 1.5 goals, they are 1.16 and 4.30 respectively.
| Under | Team goal total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 | 0.5 | 1.75 |
| 1.32 | 1 | 3.10 |
| 1.16 | 1.5 | 4.30 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Willy Delajod (France)
Matches — 8 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 23;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 2.9;
Matches with a red card — 1 of 8;
Matches with a penalty — 1 of 8.
