Betting Tip
With 20 minutes left in the second qualifying round, Dinamo were heading out of the UEFA Champions League, but the closing spell changed everything. Thun, however, play in a more competitive league, where the champions change regularly, while Lithuania are only 45th in the UEFA coefficient rankings. Kauno Zalgiris are therefore rated significantly lower.
Dinamo turned the tie around thanks to more aggressive pressing, set pieces (they scored from a corner) and the individual quality of Moris Valincic, who struck a fine decisive goal from distance. And, of course, there was the sending-off of their opponents' centre-back and captain, Marco Burki. So it is unclear whether the Zagreb side would even be preparing for this match now. Even so, questions remain about their defending. In the match in Switzerland, Ivan Filipovic was not especially assured when coming off his line, which led to the goal conceded.
Kauno Zalgiris only just made it through to the third round, even though they were playing, as it seemed, against the Faroese champions KI Klaksvik, where it is very difficult to play football. But the Greens and Whites scored the only, decisive goal only in the 85th minute of the return leg on familiar turf in Kaunas. In the 2020s, the Lithuanian side have managed to win only 2 of their 10 away matches in European competition, against Iceland's Valur (2:1) in the previous Conference League and Kosovo's Drita (3:2) in the first round of this edition. The Kaunas side will not be able to score that many against a much better-equipped Dinamo. Even if they do not particularly want to, they will be pinned back towards their own goal and pressured with crosses until Dinamo score once, and preferably twice.
They have not met before, but it is hard to believe Dinamo will fail to win and score at least a couple of goals. The Zagreb side's defence, including at set pieces, also has lapses, so over goals suits the combo, and we will see who scores the third goal.