Odds overview
Celta de Vigo have a slight edge in the 1X2 market: a Celta win is available at 2.60, compared with 2.80 for Elche and 3.30 for the draw. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals at 1.80 is favoured over Over 2.5 goals at 2.00. In the handicap (0) market, Celta Draw No Bet has shorter odds at 1.85, compared with 1.97 for Elche Draw No Bet.
Why Celta de Vigo are favourites
Bookmakers give the visitors a marginal advantage: a Celta de Vigo win is offered at 2.60, an Elche win at 2.80 and a draw at 3.30.
- Celta de Vigo are joint first in La Liga for defensive record, conceding an average of just 0.86 goals per game.
- Elche have conceded the second-most goals in the league, allowing opponents an average of 2.43 goals per match.
- Celta de Vigo have lost to Elche only twice in their last 10 head-to-head meetings.
Form and Line-up Elche
Elche ended their poor run in Matchday 7 of La Liga with a 3:1 away win over Espanyol. They had previously lost to Real Madrid (2:3), Real Sociedad (2:3) and Racing Santander (2:3), and drawn with Athletic Bilbao (1:1).
- Elche committed more than 11.5 fouls in 8 of their last 10 La Liga home matches.
- Elche's opponents had fewer than 13.5 shots, including blocked shots, in 8 of their last 10 La Liga home matches.
- More than 1.5 goals were scored in 7 of Elche's La Liga matches this season.
Probable line-up (4-3-3): Matías Dituro, Rubén Sánchez, Víctor Chust, Pedro Bigas, Roy Revivo, Gonzalo Villar, Tom Lemaire, Javi Morcillo, Tete Morente, Fer Niño, Germán Valera.
Absentees: Federico Redondo (suspended); Buba Sangaré and Yago Santiago (both doubtful).
Form and Line-up Celta de Vigo
Celta de Vigo thrashed Racing Santander 5:0 in Matchday 7 of La Liga, but the Galicians had dropped points in every previous match — four draws and two defeats. They also made a poor start in the UEFA Europa League, losing to Omonia (0:1).
- Celta de Vigo scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 La Liga away matches.
- Celta de Vigo's opponents scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 La Liga away matches.
- Celta de Vigo had fewer than 11.5 shots, including blocked shots, in 9 of their last 10 La Liga away matches.
Probable line-up (3-4-3): Ionuț Radu, Yoel Lago, Sebastián Cáceres, Marcos Alonso, Javier Rueda, Ilaix Moriba, Aleix Febas, Sergio Carreira, Hugo González, Ferran Jutglà, Hugo Álvarez.
Absentees: Jones El-Abdellaoui, Miguel Román and Carl Starfelt (all injured); Andrés Antañón (doubtful).
The teams' chances
The margin-free assessment gives Celta de Vigo a 36.8% chance of winning, with fair odds of 2.72. Elche have a 34.2% chance and fair odds of 2.93; the draw is rated at 29.0%, with fair odds of 3.45. Average odds are 2.60 for a Celta win, 2.80 for an Elche win and 3.30 for a draw.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elche win | 2.80 | 2.93 | 34.2% |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.45 | 29.0% |
| Celta de Vigo win | 2.60 | 2.72 | 36.8% |
Total goals prediction
Under 2.5 goals is available at 1.80, compared with 2.00 for Over 2.5 goals. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 goals has considerably shorter odds of 1.30, while Over 3.5 goals is at 3.15.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| 3.5 | 1.30 | 3.15 |
Handicap prediction
Elche (-1.5) are offered at 5.20 and Celta de Vigo (-1.5) at 4.90. At +1.5, the odds are almost equal: Elche (+1.5) are at 1.12 and Celta (+1.5) at 1.11. Celta (-1) have shorter odds at 4.10 than Elche (-1) at 4.30; at +1, Celta (+1) are at 1.16 compared with 1.18 for Elche (+1). In the handicap (0) market, Celta Draw No Bet have shorter odds at 1.85 than Elche Draw No Bet at 1.97.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 5.20 | -1.5 | 4.90 |
| 1.12 | 1.5 | 1.11 |
| 4.30 | -1 | 4.10 |
| 1.18 | 1 | 1.16 |
| 1.97 | 0 | 1.85 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score – Yes is available at 1.75, while Both teams to score – No, meaning at least one team will fail to score, is at 2.00.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.75 |
| No | 2.00 |
Team goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Elche — 1 goal; Celta de Vigo — 1 goal.
Elche team goals
Elche team goals: Over 0.5 is available at 1.32, compared with 3.10 for Under 0.5. At the 1-goal line, Over 1 has shorter odds of 1.70 than Under 1 at 2.08; at the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is shorter at 1.48, while Over 1.5 is at 2.55.
| Under | Team goals total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.10 | 0.5 | 1.32 |
| 2.08 | 1 | 1.70 |
| 1.48 | 1.5 | 2.55 |
Celta de Vigo team goals
Celta de Vigo team goals: Over 0.5 is at 1.30 and Under 0.5 at 3.30. Over 1 has shorter odds of 1.60 than Under 1 at 2.30, while at the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is at 1.55 compared with 2.40 for Over 1.5.
| Under | Team goals total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.30 | 0.5 | 1.30 |
| 2.30 | 1 | 1.60 |
| 1.55 | 1.5 | 2.40 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Javier Alberola (Spain)
Matches — 24 (La Liga, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 27;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.1;
Matches with a red card — 6 of 24;
Matches with a penalty — 10 of 24.
