Estonia
Estonia and Luxembourg will meet 3 October 2026 at 12:00 EDT / 09:00 PDT on Matchday 3 of the UEFA Nations League. The Group C4 match will take place at the A. Le Coq Arena in Tallinn.
We will focus on the balance of power reflected in the bookmakers' odds and look for the most appealing betting markets.
Estonia vs Luxembourg is unlikely to offer fans an open exchange of chances or many goals. Both teams tend to keep an eye on their own goal and rarely create the conditions for a high-scoring game. They simply are not used to playing that way.
Estonia struggle to find the net: they have scored under 1.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 matches across all competitions. Their start in the UEFA Nations League has confirmed that modest attacking output. Draws of 1:1 against Iceland and 0:0 against Bulgaria have underlined their reliance on stubborn defending.
Luxembourg's figures are similarly restrained: 9 of their last 10 matches have finished under 3.5 goals, while the visitors have scored under 2.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 games. Luxembourg's opponents have scored no more than two goals in 8 of those 10 matches, reinforcing the team's low-scoring trend.
The main risk to the bet is an early goal: if either side concedes at the start, the game could open up. Luxembourg have already played out a high-scoring 2:1 match against Bulgaria and conceded three unanswered goals to Iceland (0:3), but it is difficult for the visitors to sustain such open games.
With both teams offering little in attack, a third goal looks hard to come by. My prediction is therefore a cautious one: under 2.5 goals.
Pawel Raczkowski (Poland)
Matches — 7 (international fixtures, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 24;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellow cards) — 4.7;
Matches with red cards — 0 of 7;
Matches with penalties — 2 of 7.
|
Jürgen Henn
|
coach | ||
| Player | Matches | Goals | |
|
Line-up
|
|||
Matvei Igonen
|
gk. | 0 | 0 |
Karol Mets
|
df. | 0 | 0 |
Maksim Paskotši
|
df. | 0 | 0 |
Michael Schjønning-Larsen
|
df. | 0 | 0 |
Märten Kuusk
|
df. | 0 | 0 |
Rasmus Peetson
|
df. | 0 | 0 |
Kevor Palumets
|
mf. | 0 | 0 |
Markus Poom
|
mf. | 0 | 0 |
Mattias Käit
|
mf. | 0 | 0 |
|
Patrik Kristal
|
mf. | 0 | 0 |
Mattias Männilaan
|
fw. | 0 | 0 |
|
Substitutes
|
|||
|
Karl Andre Vallner
|
gk. | 0 | 0 |
Karl Hein
|
gk. | 0 | 0 |
Erko Tõugjas
|
df. | 0 | 0 |
Joonas Tamm
|
df. | 0 | 0 |
|
Joseph Saliste
|
df. | 0 | 0 |
Robi Saarma
|
df. | 0 | 0 |
|
Frank Liivak
|
mf. | 1 | 0 |
|
Maksimilian Skvortsov
|
mf. | 0 | 0 |
Markus Soomets
|
mf. | 0 | 0 |
|
Mihkel Ainsalu
|
mf. | 0 | 0 |
Alex Tamm
|
fw. | 0 | 0 |
Karel Mustmaa
|
fw. | 0 | 0 |
|
Jeff Strasser
|
coach | ||
| Player | Matches | Goals | |
|
Line-up
|
|||
Anthony Moris
|
gk. | 0 | 0 |
Dirk Carlson
|
df. | 0 | 0 |
|
Enes Mahmutović
|
df. | 0 | 0 |
Florian Bohnert
|
df. | 0 | 0 |
Vahid Selimović
|
df. | 0 | 0 |
Enzo dos Santos
|
mf. | 0 | 0 |
Tomás Cruz
|
mf. | 0 | 0 |
Vincent Thill
|
mf. | 0 | 0 |
Jayson Videira
|
fw. | 3 | 0 |
Omar Natami
|
fw. | 2 | 0 |
Aiman Dardari
|
fw. | 0 | 0 |
|
Substitutes
|
|||
Hamza Kadamani
|
0 | 0 | |
Tiago Pereira Cardoso
|
gk. | 0 | 0 |
Tim Kips
|
gk. | 0 | 0 |
Eldin Džogović
|
df. | 0 | 0 |
Eric Veiga
|
df. | 0 | 0 |
Marvin Martins
|
df. | 0 | 0 |
|
Sofiane Ikene
|
df. | 0 | 0 |
Timothé Rupil
|
mf. | 3 | 0 |
Leandro Barreiro Martins
|
mf. | 0 | 0 |
Mathias Olesen
|
mf. | 0 | 0 |
Miguel Gonçalves
|
mf. | 0 | 0 |
Sébastien Thill
|
mf. | 0 | 0 |
Bulgaria
Estonia
Iceland
Estonia
Luxembourg
Iceland
Bulgaria
Luxembourg
| # | Team |
|
|
|
|
Matches played
|
W
|
D
|
L
|
G
|
Points
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
Iceland
|
1:1 | 3:0 | -:- | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
7:1
|
8 | |
2 |
Estonia
|
0:0 | -:- | 1:0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
2:1
|
6 | |
3 |
Bulgaria
|
-:- | 0:0 | 1:2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
3:5
|
4 | |
4 |
Luxembourg
|
0:3 | -:- | 0:2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
2:7
|
3 |
