Odds overview
Flamengo are favourites: an away win is available at 2.10, compared with 3.05 for a draw and 3.75 for a home win. In the 2.5-goal market, Under 2.5 at 1.50 is considerably more likely than Over 2.5 at 2.45. With a handicap of 0, Flamengo Draw No Bet at 1.48 is favoured over Estudiantes La Plata Draw No Bet at 2.55.
Why Flamengo Are Favourites
The odds for a Flamengo win are 2.10, compared with 3.05 for a draw and 3.75 for an Estudiantes La Plata win.
- The Brazilian club have been remarkably consistent in continental competition: Flamengo are unbeaten in their last 10 Copa Libertadores matches.
- Flamengo's defence has been exceptionally reliable away from home: their opponents have not scored more than one goal in any of the club's last 10 away Copa Libertadores matches.
Form and Line-up Estudiantes La Plata
The Argentine club have had mixed results recently: they thrashed Gimnasia La Plata 3:0, beat Corinthians 1:0 away in the Copa Libertadores and drew 2:2 with Central Córdoba, rotating their squad ahead of the semi-final.
Estudiantes La Plata limit their opponents' attacking opportunities at home: their opponents have taken fewer than 12.5 shots in each of their last 10 home Copa Libertadores matches.
- Estudiantes La Plata's last 10 home Copa Libertadores matches have produced Under 2.5 goals on 8 occasions.
- Estudiantes La Plata have avoided defeat in 9 of their last 10 home Copa Libertadores matches.
- Estudiantes La Plata have not received more yellow cards than their opponents in any of their last 10 home Copa Libertadores matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Fabricio Iacovich, Leandro Gonzalez Pirez, Santiago Arzamendia, Tomas Palacios, Ramiro Funes Mori, Edwuin Cetre, Alexis Castro, Fabricio Perez, Miguel Monsalve, Bautista Kociubinski, Adolfo Gaich.
Eric Meza will miss the match through injury, while Tiago Palacios and Alexis Castro are available to the team again.
Form and Line-up Flamengo
Flamengo approach the semi-final in good form: they beat Fluminense 1:0 and drew 2:2 with Santos in Serie A, as well as drawing 1:1 with Independiente in the Copa Libertadores.
The Brazilians have considerable attacking potential and rank second in the competition for expected goals with 1.9 xG, but have been restrained before half-time in away Copa Libertadores matches — the first half has produced Under 1.5 goals in each of their last 10 away matches in the competition.
- All 10 of Flamengo's last 10 away Copa Libertadores matches have finished with Under 2.5 goals.
- Fewer than 3.5 yellow cards have been shown in 8 of Flamengo's last 10 away Copa Libertadores matches.
- Under 7.5 shots on target has landed in 8 of Flamengo's last 10 away Copa Libertadores matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Agustin Rossi, Guillermo Varela, Leo Pereira, Leo Ortiz, Alex Sandro, Saul, Samuel Lino, Eric Pulgar, Jorge Carrascal, Lucas Paqueta, Pedro.
The teams' chances
The fair-odds assessment gives an Estudiantes La Plata win a 24.9% probability at odds of 4.02, a draw 30.6% at 3.27, and a Flamengo win 44.5% at 2.25.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estudiantes La Plata win | 3.75 | 4.02 | 24.9% |
| Draw | 3.05 | 3.27 | 30.6% |
| Flamengo win | 2.10 | 2.25 | 44.5% |
Total Goals
For the 2.5-goal total, Under is available at 1.50 and Over at 2.45. At 2 goals, the odds are level: Under and Over are both 1.85. For 3.5 goals, Under is favoured at 1.14, compared with 4.60 for Over.
| Total-goals line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.50 | 2.45 |
| 2 | 1.85 | 1.85 |
| 3.5 | 1.14 | 4.60 |
Handicap Betting
Estudiantes La Plata (-1.5) are at 8.00 and Flamengo (-1.5) at 4.30. At +1.5, the odds are 1.16 for Estudiantes La Plata and 1.04 for Flamengo; at +1, they are 1.25 and 1.06 respectively. At a handicap of 0, Estudiantes La Plata Draw No Bet is available at 2.55 and Flamengo Draw No Bet at 1.48.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 8.00 | -1.5 | 4.30 |
| 1.16 | 1.5 | 1.04 |
| 6.90 | -1 | 3.35 |
| 1.25 | 1 | 1.06 |
| 2.55 | 0 | 1.48 |
Both Teams to Score
Both teams to score — No, meaning at least one team will not score, is available at 1.65 and looks more likely than Both teams to score — Yes at 2.15.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 2.15 |
| No | 1.65 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
4/5
|
9/25
|
1/5
|
| William Hill |
73/100
|
2/5
|
11/50
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team Goal Totals
The bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: 0.5 goals for Estudiantes La Plata and 1 goal for Flamengo.
Estudiantes La Plata Team Goals
For Estudiantes La Plata's team goal total, Under 0.5 is available at 2.15 and Over 0.5 at 1.62. At 1 goal, the odds are 1.45 for Under and 2.60 for Over; at 1.5, they are 1.20 and 4.00 respectively.
| Under | Team goal total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.15 | 0.5 | 1.62 |
| 1.45 | 1 | 2.60 |
| 1.20 | 1.5 | 4.00 |
Flamengo Team Goals
For Flamengo's team goal total, Under 0.5 is available at 3.15 and Over 0.5 at 1.30. At 1 goal, Under is at 2.10 and Over at 1.65; at 1.5, the odds are 1.47 and 2.50 respectively.
| Under | Team goal total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.15 | 0.5 | 1.30 |
| 2.10 | 1 | 1.65 |
| 1.47 | 1.5 | 2.50 |
