Odds overview
Monaco are clear favourites to win at 1.75, compared with 4.30 for Le Mans and 4.15 for the draw. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.62 is favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.30. In the main handicap market, Monaco Draw No Bet (0) at 1.33 is considerably shorter than Le Mans Draw No Bet (0) at 3.00.
Why Monaco are favourites
Bookmakers make Monaco the favourites: a win for them is available at 1.75. The draw is quoted at 4.15, while Le Mans are 4.30 to win.
- Monaco have been picking up points consistently in competitive matches, avoiding defeat in 8 of their last 10 games across all competitions.
- Le Mans have failed to win 8 of their last 10 matches across all competitive competitions.
Form and Line-up Le Mans
In their most recent Ligue 1 round, on 31 October, Le Mans lost 0:2 away to Troyes. Before travelling to Troyes, Le Mans drew 1:1 away to Auxerre on 25 October.
Louis Mafouta stands out in attack, with the forward scoring 4 goals in 9 league appearances.
- More than 1.5 goals have been scored in each of Le Mans' last 10 matches across all competitive competitions.
- Le Mans have registered fewer than 7.5 shots on target in each of their last 9 matches across all competitive competitions.
- Le Mans have registered more than 3.5 shots on target in 8 of their last 10 home matches across all competitions.
Probable line-up: Nicolas Kocik, Noa Boisset, Samuel Yohou, Raul Torrente, Alexandre Laurey, Lucas Buades, Antoine Rabillard, Lucas Bretelle, Lucas Calodat, Louis Mafouta, Habou Diallo.
Le Mans will be without defender Djibril Sidibe (foot injury) and midfielder Adil Bourabaa (ankle injury). Erwan Colas, Martin Rossignol and Theo Eyoum are also listed as absentees.
Form and Line-up Monaco
Monaco come into the match after a home win over Nordsjaelland: they won 2:0 on 5 November. The head coach rotated his side that day, starting defenders Jordan Teze and Christian Mawissa as well as debutant Ilane Toure.
Paris Brunner remains Monaco's leading scorer in Ligue 1 over the current run, with the forward scoring 4 goals in 7 league appearances.
- Monaco have registered fewer than 7.5 shots on target in each of their last 10 matches across all competitive competitions.
- Monaco have scored at least one goal in 9 of their last 10 Ligue 1 matches.
- Monaco have taken fewer than 10.5 corners in each of their last 10 matches across all competitive competitions.
Probable line-up: Lukas Hradecky, Vanderson, Sadibou Sane, Eric Dyer, Nazinho, Lamine Camara, Denis Zakaria, Edan Diop, Alexandr Golovin, Matthis Abline, Paris Brunner.
Monaco forward Ansu Fati is unavailable with a hamstring injury. Midfielder Stanis Idumbo Muzambo was also mentioned in player availability reports ahead of the round.
Both teams' chances
The average odds for a Le Mans win are 4.30, with fair odds of 4.49 and a probability of 22.3%. For the draw, the figures are 4.15, 4.34 and 23.1%. A Monaco win is available at 1.75, with fair odds of 1.83 and a probability of 54.7%.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans to win | 4.30 | 4.49 | 22.3% |
| Draw | 4.15 | 4.34 | 23.1% |
| Monaco to win | 1.75 | 1.83 | 54.7% |
Total goals analysis
At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 goals is offered at 2.30 and Over 2.5 goals at 1.62. At the 3.5-goal line, the odds change: Under 3.5 goals is 1.55, while Over 3.5 goals is 2.40.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.30 | 1.62 |
| 3.5 | 1.55 | 2.40 |
Handicap analysis
Le Mans (-1.5) is quoted at 7.30, compared with 2.65 for Monaco (-1.5). For the +1.5 line, the odds are 1.42 for Le Mans (+1.5) and 1.05 for Monaco (+1.5). At -1, Le Mans (-1) are 6.40 and Monaco (-1) are 2.20; at +1, the respective odds are 1.67 and 1.07. Le Mans Draw No Bet (0) at 3.00 has longer odds than Monaco Draw No Bet (0) at 1.33.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 7.30 | -1.5 | 2.65 |
| 1.42 | 1.5 | 1.05 |
| 6.40 | -1 | 2.20 |
| 1.67 | 1 | 1.07 |
| 3.00 | 0 | 1.33 |
Both teams to score analysis
Both teams to score — Yes is available at 1.60, while Both teams to score — No is 2.25: the market considers goals from both teams more likely.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.60 |
| No | 2.25 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
21/20
|
11/50
|
9/50
|
| LeoVegas |
51/50
|
6/25
|
11/50
|
| 888sport |
1/1
|
1/4
|
11/50
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals analysis
The team goals markets suggest higher scoring expectations for Monaco than for Le Mans.
Le Mans team goals
For Le Mans, Under 0.5 team goals is 2.75 and Over 0.5 team goals is 1.40. At the 1-goal line, the odds are almost equal: Under 1 team goal is 1.85 and Over 1 team goal is 1.90. At 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 team goals is quoted at 1.35 and Over 1.5 team goals at 2.85.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.75 | 0.5 | 1.40 |
| 1.85 | 1 | 1.90 |
| 1.35 | 1.5 | 2.85 |
Monaco team goals
For Monaco, Under 0.5 team goals is offered at 5.70 and Over 0.5 team goals at 1.09; at the 1-goal line, the respective odds are 4.20 and 1.20. Under 1.5 team goals is 2.13, compared with 1.67 for Over 1.5 team goals. At 2 goals, Under 2 team goals is 1.65 and Over 2 team goals is 2.20.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.70 | 0.5 | 1.09 |
| 4.20 | 1 | 1.20 |
| 2.13 | 1.5 | 1.67 |
| 1.65 | 2 | 2.20 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Brayn Dechepy (France)
Matches — 20 (Ligue 1, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 25;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.4;
Matches with a red card — 6 out of 20;
Matches with a penalty — 9 out of 20.
