Odds overview
Riga are favourites at around 1.92, with the draw at 3.55 and Kairat Almaty to win at 4.10. In the 2.5-goal totals market, Under 2.5 at 1.80 is favoured over Over 2.5 at 2.00. For a handicap of 0, Riga (0) at 1.40 are considerably shorter than Kairat Almaty (0) at 2.80.
Why Riga are favourites
Bookmakers favour the hosts: Riga to win is offered at 1.92, compared with 4.10 for Kairat and 3.55 for the draw.
- Riga have been solid defensively at home in the UEFA Conference League: their opponents have scored no more than one goal in 8 of the Latvian club's last 10 home matches in the competition.
- Kairat have struggled to create chances away from home: in their last 10 away games across all competitions, the Almaty side have never managed more than five shots on target.
Form and Line-up Riga
In their most recent competitive match on 10 October 2026, Riga beat Tukums 2000 2:0 away from home thanks to goals from Reginaldo Ramires and Mohamed Badamosi.
Riga are also disciplined out of possession in home UEFA Conference League matches: their opponents took fewer than 12.5 shots in 9 of their last 10 home games, while visiting sides were caught offside no more than twice in the last 10.
- Fewer than 3.5 goals were scored in Riga's last 10 home matches in the UEFA Conference League.
- Riga's opponents had no more than 5 shots on target in their last 10 home matches in the UEFA Conference League.
- Riga were not beaten on corners in 9 of their last 10 home matches in the UEFA Conference League.
Probable line-up: Kenan Pirić, Karl Gameni Wassom, Iago Siqueira Augusto, Reginaldo Ramires de Oliveira Albertino, Andrés Salazar Osorio, Zin-Eddine Ould-Mhand, Meissa Diop, Maksims Toņiševs, Antonijs Černomordijs, Ahmed Awua Ankrah, Caio Ferreira Martins.
Form and Line-up Kairat
Kairat come into the match after a 1:0 home win over Zhetysu, with Marc Gual scoring the only goal in the 87th minute.
- Kairat's opponents scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 away matches across all competitions.
- Kairat took fewer than 13.5 shots in 8 of their last 10 away matches across all competitions.
- Kairat committed fewer fouls than their opponents in each of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
Probable line-up: Temirlan Anarbekov, Luis Mata, Lucas Áfrico, Aleksandr Martynovich, Lev Kurgin, Jaakko Oksanen, Olzhas Baybek, Gustavo Mendonça, Oiva Jukkola, N. Nurbol, Marc Gual.
The teams' chances
Riga to win is quoted at 1.92; the fair odds are 2.01, implying a 49.8% probability. For the draw, the corresponding figures are 3.55, 3.71 and 26.9%; for Kairat Almaty to win, they are 4.10, 4.29 and 23.3%.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Riga to win | 1.92 | 2.01 | 49.8% |
| Draw | 3.55 | 3.71 | 26.9% |
| Kairat Almaty to win | 4.10 | 4.29 | 23.3% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 is available at 1.80 and Over 2.5 at 2.00, so the under is favoured. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 at 1.30 is considerably shorter than Over 3.5 at 3.25.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| 3.5 | 1.30 | 3.25 |
Handicap prediction
Riga (-1.5) are available at 3.30, compared with 7.80 for Kairat (-1.5). At the 1.5 handicap, Riga (+1.5) are quoted at 1.04 and Kairat (+1.5) at 1.30; at the -1 line, the respective odds are 2.70 and 6.80. For a handicap of 1, Riga (+1) are offered at 1.06 and Kairat (+1) at 1.47, while at handicap 0, Riga (0) at 1.40 are shorter than Kairat (0) at 2.80.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 3.30 | -1.5 | 7.80 |
| 1.04 | 1.5 | 1.30 |
| 2.70 | -1 | 6.80 |
| 1.06 | 1 | 1.47 |
| 1.40 | 0 | 2.80 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is quoted at 1.85, while No is 1.90. The odds slightly favour both teams scoring; No means that at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.85 |
| No | 1.90 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
11/50
|
29/100
|
91/100
|
| William Hill |
11/50
|
33/100
|
83/100
|
| 888sport |
11/50
|
33/100
|
83/100
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Riga — 1.5 goals; Kairat Almaty — 1 goal.
Riga team total goals
For Riga's team total, Under 0.5 is offered at 4.10 and Over 0.5 at 1.18; at the 1-goal line, the respective odds are 2.90 and 1.35. At the 1.5-goal line, Under is 1.75 and Over is 2.03; at the 2-goal line, they are 1.32 and 3.05. The odds strongly favour at least one goal for the hosts.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.10 | 0.5 | 1.18 |
| 2.90 | 1 | 1.35 |
| 1.75 | 1.5 | 2.03 |
| 1.32 | 2 | 3.05 |
Kairat team total goals
For Kairat's team total, Under 0.5 is quoted at 2.45 and Over 0.5 at 1.52. At the 1-goal line, Under is 1.65 compared with 2.20 for Over; at the 1.5-goal line, the odds are 1.30 and 3.30 respectively. The odds lean towards a limited goal return for the visitors.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.45 | 0.5 | 1.52 |
| 1.65 | 1 | 2.20 |
| 1.30 | 1.5 | 3.30 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Florjan Lata (Albania)
Matches — 16 (international fixtures, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 23;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.3;
Matches with a red card — 1 out of 16;
Matches with a penalty — 10 out of 16.
