Odds overview
Hajduk are slight favourites: a Hajduk win is available at 2.40, a Thun win at 2.80 and a draw at 3.60. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.63 is much shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.30. In the handicap market, Hajduk (0) at 1.77 are favoured over Thun (0) at 2.05.
Why Hajduk are favourites
Bookmakers offer odds of 2.40 for an away win, 2.80 for a Thun win and 3.60 for a draw.
HNK Hajduk Split have consistently delivered results in key matches this season, underlining their quality with a 2:1 home win over Dinamo Zagreb.
Thun have made a poor start in the UEFA Conference League: after the first matchday, the Swiss side sit only 30th in the standings, without a point and with a goal difference of 0:1.
Form and Line-up Thun
In the domestic league, the Swiss side lost 2:4 away to Zürich.
- Thun committed more than 13.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 home matches across all competitions.
- Thun's opponents took fewer than 5.5 corners in 9 of the club's last 10 home matches across all competitions.
- The combined total of shot attempts exceeded 23.5 in 9 of Thun's last 10 matches across all competitions.
Probable Thun line-up: Niklas Steffen, Olivier Mambwa, Nicolas Bürgy, Furkan Dursun, Mattias Käit, Patrik Kristal, Justin Roth, Jan Bamert, Fabio Fehr, Nils Reichmuth, Brighton Labeau.
Form and Line-up Hajduk
Croatian club midfielder Marin Soticek singled out the main concern ahead of the away trip — the unfamiliar artificial surface at the arena in Thun, which could disrupt the visitors' usual rhythm.
Hajduk's away record in European competition remains difficult, however: the Croatian side have failed to win 9 of their last 10 away matches in the UEFA Conference League.
- Hajduk had fewer than 5.5 shots on target in 9 of their last 10 away matches in the UEFA Conference League.
- Referees showed more than 3.5 yellow cards in 9 of Hajduk's last 10 away matches in the UEFA Conference League.
- The combined total of shot attempts was below 24.5 in 9 of Hajduk's last 10 away matches in the UEFA Conference League.
Probable Hajduk line-up: Toni Silic, Dennis Hadzikadunic, Khalil Fayad, Dalisson De Almeida Leite, Marko Livaja, Dario Maresic, Andjelo Sutalo, Dario Melnjak, Alberto del Moral Saelices, Mathieu Acapandié, Marin Soticek.
Teams' chances
The margin-free estimate gives Hajduk a 39.6% chance of winning, with average odds of 2.40 and fair odds of 2.52. Thun have a 34% chance, with corresponding odds of 2.80 and 2.94, while a draw has a 26.4% chance, with odds of 3.60 and 3.79.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thun to win | 2.80 | 2.94 | 34.0% |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.79 | 26.4% |
| HNK Hajduk Split to win | 2.40 | 2.52 | 39.6% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.63 is considerably shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.30. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 goals at 1.55 is favoured over Over 3.5 goals at 2.40.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.30 | 1.63 |
| 3.5 | 1.55 | 2.40 |
Handicap prediction
Thun (-1.5) are offered at 4.60 and Hajduk (-1.5) at 4.05. At the +1.5 line, Hajduk (+1.5) at 1.14 are shorter than Thun (+1.5) at 1.20; at the -1 line, Hajduk (-1) are 3.35 against 4.05 for Thun (-1). At the +1 line, Hajduk (+1) are 1.20 and Thun (+1) are 1.27, while with a zero handicap Hajduk (0) at 1.77 are shorter than Thun (0) at 2.05.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 4.60 | -1.5 | 4.05 |
| 1.20 | 1.5 | 1.14 |
| 4.05 | -1 | 3.35 |
| 1.27 | 1 | 1.20 |
| 2.05 | 0 | 1.77 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score – Yes at 1.53 looks more likely than Both teams to score – No at 2.45: the latter means at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.53 |
| No | 2.45 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
53/100
|
3/10
|
2/5
|
| William Hill |
1/2
|
3/10
|
11/25
|
| 888sport |
1/2
|
3/10
|
11/25
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Thun — 1.5 goals; Hajduk — 1.5 goals.
Thun team total goals
Thun team total goals: Over 0.5 at 1.23 is considerably shorter than Under 0.5 at 3.75; Over 1 at 1.47 is shorter than Under 1 at 2.60. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 at 1.65 is shorter than Over 1.5 at 2.20, while at the 2-goal line Under 2 at 1.25 is shorter than Over 2 at 3.55.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.75 | 0.5 | 1.23 |
| 2.60 | 1 | 1.47 |
| 1.65 | 1.5 | 2.20 |
| 1.25 | 2 | 3.55 |
Hajduk team total goals
Hajduk team total goals: Over 0.5 at 1.17 is favoured over Under 0.5 at 4.15, while Over 1 at 1.35 is favoured over Under 1 at 2.95. At the 1.5-goal line, the odds are close: Under 1.5 at 1.82 and Over 1.5 at 1.93. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 is shorter at 1.35, while Over 2 is offered at 3.00.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.15 | 0.5 | 1.17 |
| 2.95 | 1 | 1.35 |
| 1.82 | 1.5 | 1.93 |
| 1.35 | 2 | 3.00 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Jarred Gillett (Australia)
Matches — 5 (international fixtures, 2023/24–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 27;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 7;
Matches with a red card — 2 out of 5;
Matches with a penalty — 2 out of 5.
